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Strategy
(NASDAQ:MSTR)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$135.00
â–²(6.44% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/19/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large TTM losses, negative operating cash flow, and highly volatile earnings quality despite strong revenue growth). Technicals are mixed with near-term weakness but some longer-term support. Valuation is constrained by a negative P/E and no dividend yield, while recent corporate actions provide some support via liquidity and buybacks but increase bitcoin-linked concentration risk.
Positive Factors
Strong Revenue Growth and Gross Margin
Very strong revenue expansion and a solid gross margin show that Strategy continues to generate meaningful economic value from its operating business. If maintained, this combination can support reinvestment in analytics products and services while improving the foundation for future operating leverage.
Negative Factors
Severe Losses and Negative Operating Cash Flow
Strategy’s operating performance remains materially loss-making despite strong revenue growth and gross profit. Deep net losses, negative operating cash flow, and volatile earnings quality weaken internal funding capacity and make long-term profitability dependent on substantial improvement in operating expenses and core cash generation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Revenue Growth and Gross Margin
Very strong revenue expansion and a solid gross margin show that Strategy continues to generate meaningful economic value from its operating business. If maintained, this combination can support reinvestment in analytics products and services while improving the foundation for future operating leverage.
Read all positive factors
Strategy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Bitcoins Held
Shows the amount of Bitcoin the company holds, reflecting its strategic investment in cryptocurrency and potential exposure to crypto market volatility.
Shows the amount of Bitcoin the company holds, reflecting its strategic investment in cryptocurrency and potential exposure to crypto market volatility.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyStrategy (MSTR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$57.75B
Dividend Yield0.08%
Average Volume (3M)20.83M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.47
Revenue Growth7.79%
EPS Growth-742.51%
CountryUS
Employees1,539
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-95.95
Shares Outstanding402,430,540
10 Day Avg. Volume19,733,394
30 Day Avg. Volume20,834,225
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.08
Price to Book (P/B)0.88
Price to Sales (P/S)93.61
P/FCF Ratio-1.98
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.86
Enterprise Value/Revenue99.14
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit146.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.27
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$227.86Price Target Upside79.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)-21.56
Revenue Forecast (FY)$500.78M
Strategy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Strategy Inc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a bitcoin treasury company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It offers investors varying degrees of economic exposure to Bitcoin by offering a rang...
How the Company Makes Money
Strategy primarily makes money from its enterprise analytics software business through (1) software licensing/subscription revenues, (2) maintenance and support revenues tied to those software deployments (such as technical support, updates, and p...
Strategy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple record operating metrics (originations, fundings, total and net investment income), strong liquidity and reduced leverage, robust portfolio capital raises, and recurring contributions from the Adviser business. Credit metrics showed modest deterioration (small increase in lower-grade loans, one additional non-accrual) and expenses rose due to variable compensation and taxes, but these negatives are limited in magnitude relative to the positive operational momentum. Management reiterated disciplined underwriting and conservative balance sheet posture while possessing the liquidity and platform scale to capitalize on market opportunities.Positive Updates
Record Originations and Fundings
First half 2026 originations of $2.74B, up 35.6% year-over-year; record fundings of $1.35B, up 8.5% year-over-year. Q2 new commitments were over $927M and gross fundings were over $647M, funding 39 companies (9 new borrowers).
Negative Updates
Slight Credit Migration Toward Lower Grades
Weighted average internal credit rating increased to 2.17 from 2.11 in Q1. Grade 1 and 2 credits declined to 65.4% from 70.5% QoQ, while Grade 3 credits rose to 32.7% from 28.6%.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Originations and Fundings
First half 2026 originations of $2.74B, up 35.6% year-over-year; record fundings of $1.35B, up 8.5% year-over-year. Q2 new commitments were over $927M and gross fundings were over $647M, funding 39 companies (9 new borrowers).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Hercules guided to Q3 core yields of 11.8%–12% and prepayments normalizing to $200–$300 million (vs. $572.1M in Q2), with originations expected to be seasonally lower and back‑end weighted; interest expense is expected to be broadly stable or up slightly vs. Q2 (Q2 interest expense $31.1M, WAC of debt 5.2%). Management expects gross SG&A of $25M–$26M with an RIA expense allocation of ~$4.7M and a quarterly RIA dividend of roughly $2.0–2.5M, noted that 98% of the debt portfolio is floating with ~75% of prime‑based loans at contractual floors (muting rate sensitivity), and emphasized strong liquidity (BDC available liquidity $652.9M, platform >$1B) and recent issuance of $325M of 6.3% notes due 2031 to repay debt and fund originations.Strategy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
32
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 498.35M | 477.23M | 463.46M | 496.26M | 499.26M | 510.76M |
| Gross Profit | 336.89M | 327.82M | 333.99M | 386.32M | 396.27M | 418.85M |
| EBITDA | -21.76B | -5.44B | -1.85B | -61.04M | -1.26B | -770.88M |
| Net Income | -30.41B | -3.85B | -1.17B | 429.12M | -1.47B | -535.48M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 52.56B | 61.64B | 25.84B | 4.76B | 2.41B | 3.56B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.45B | 2.30B | 38.12M | 46.82M | 43.84M | 63.36M |
| Total Debt | 6.77B | 8.28B | 7.26B | 2.25B | 2.45B | 2.23B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.24B | 10.60B | 7.61B | 2.60B | 2.79B | 2.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 45.33B | 51.04B | 18.23B | 2.16B | -383.12M | 978.96M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -21.75B | -22.58B | -22.14B | -1.89B | -287.20M | -2.54B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -20.09M | -67.24M | -53.03M | 12.71M | 3.21M | 93.83M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -22.42B | -22.51B | -22.09B | -1.91B | -278.59M | -2.63B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 24.11B | 24.84B | 22.13B | 1.89B | 265.19M | 2.54B |
Strategy Technical Analysis
Neutral
126.83
Price Trends
134.92
Positive
121.17
Positive
135.60
Positive
Market Momentum
2.46
Positive
42.61
Neutral
20.53
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MSTR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 126.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 156.40, below the 50-day MA of 134.92, and below the 200-day MA of 135.60, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MSTR.
Strategy Risk Analysis
Strategy disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Strategy reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Strategy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $37.85B | 15.87 | 12.94% | 0.95% | 10.88% | 68.89% | |
76 Outperform | $17.66B | 120.18 | 5.72% | 4.32% | 17.94% | -69.28% | |
70 Outperform | $45.99B | 38.55 | 16.78% | ― | 13.83% | 126.19% | |
69 Neutral | $52.34B | -989.62 | -4.39% | ― | 26.02% | 81.08% | |
69 Neutral | $88.73B | 497.00 | 4.57% | ― | 31.52% | 37.42% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
48 Neutral | $57.75B | -1.43 | -60.79% | 0.08% | 7.79% | -742.51% |
* General Sector Average
MSTR
Strategy
136.83
-159.78
-53.87%
ROP
Roper Technologies
382.71
-118.34
-23.62%
WDAY
Workday
190.81
-50.39
-20.89%
TEAM
Atlassian
207.82
49.03
30.88%
DT
Dynatrace
61.11
10.99
21.93%
DDOG
Datadog
247.11
90.82
58.10%
Strategy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Strategy Expands Bitcoin Holdings and Buyback Authorization
Positive
Oct 19, 2026
On October 19, 2026, Strategy reported that between October 12 and 18, it sold 140,872 shares of its MSTR Class A common stock, generating $22.0 million in net proceeds, all of which, along with $0.1 million of USD Cash, was used to purchase 267 b...
DividendsShareholder Meetings
Strategy Inc. Announces Amended Daily Dividend Plan
Positive
Oct 16, 2026
Strategy Inc., which trades securities including its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock (STRC), operates with a notable focus on financial instruments tied to bitcoin purchases and holdings, as reflected in the KPI metrics it...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Strategy Highlights Ongoing Bitcoin-Focused Capital Markets Activity
Positive
Oct 13, 2026
On October 12, 2026, Strategy Inc reported a series of capital markets moves aligned with its role as a Bitcoin Treasury Company, including updates to its at-the-market equity program, bitcoin purchases and share repurchase activity. During the pe...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Strategy Expands Bitcoin Holdings and Manages Capital Structure
Positive
Oct 5, 2026
Between September 28 and October 4, 2026, Strategy reported no preferred stock sales under its at-the-market program but sold 92,894 shares of its MSTR Class A common stock, generating net proceeds of $15.7 million that were partially deployed int...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Strategy Maintains High Dividend Rate on STRC Preferred
Positive
Oct 1, 2026
On September 30, 2026, Strategy Inc. announced it would keep the regular annual dividend rate on its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock, STRC, at 12.00%, effective for semi-monthly periods beginning October 16, 2026, and decl...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Strategy Expands Bitcoin Holdings and Executes Share Buybacks
Positive
Sep 28, 2026
From September 21 to September 27, 2026, Strategy Inc. issued 1,469,165 shares of its MSTR Class A common stock through its at-the-market offering program, generating $246.2 million in net proceeds while leaving sizable capacity to issue additiona...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsShareholder Meetings
Strategy Inc. Proposes Daily Preferred Dividend Schedule
Positive
Sep 25, 2026
On September 24, 2026, Strategy Inc.’s board approved putting to a special shareholder vote a plan to amend the certificates of designation for four series of its perpetual preferred stock to move to a daily dividend record date, with paymen...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Strategy boosts bitcoin holdings and share repurchases
Positive
Sep 21, 2026
Between September 14 and September 20, 2026, Strategy Inc. reported no share sales under its at-the-market equity program while continuing to use its USD Cash and USD Reserve within a defined capital framework. The company repurchased 1,771,238 sh...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Strategy Highlights Buybacks and Strong Liquidity Position
Positive
Sep 14, 2026
Strategy Inc. reported that between September 8 and September 13, 2026, it neither sold shares under its at-the-market equity program nor transacted in bitcoin, leaving the company with approximately 845,050 bitcoin acquired for $63.73 billion at ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Strategy Expands Capital Return and Buyback Authorizations
Positive
Sep 8, 2026
On September 8, 2026, Strategy Inc. reported that between August 31 and September 7, 2026 it neither sold shares under its at-the-market equity program nor transacted in bitcoin, leaving it with about 845,050 bitcoin acquired for $63.73 billion at...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Strategy Maintains Preferred Dividend Rate and Declares Distributions
Positive
Sep 1, 2026
On August 31, 2026, Strategy Inc. announced that it would maintain the regular 12.00% annual dividend rate on its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock, STRC, for semi-monthly periods beginning on or after September 16, 2026, wi...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Strategy Raises Capital to Expand Bitcoin Holdings
Positive
Aug 31, 2026
On August 31, 2026, Strategy reported that between August 24 and August 30 it raised $602.8 million in net proceeds through at-the-market sales of 4,531,421 shares of its MSTR Stock, while leaving substantial capacity to issue additional preferred...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Strategy Launches USD Cash Liquidity Pool for Flexibility
Positive
Aug 24, 2026
On August 24, 2026, Strategy Inc. expanded its Digital Credit Capital Framework by establishing “USD Cash,” a new U.S. dollar liquidity pool that complements its existing USD Reserve, which remains dedicated to servicing preferred stoc...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Strategy Sells MSTR Shares to Fund Preferred Actions
Neutral
Aug 17, 2026
On August 17, 2026, Strategy Inc. reported that between August 10 and August 16, 2026 it sold 3,458,866 shares of its MSTR Class A common stock through its at-the-market program, generating $333.7 million in net proceeds and leaving $21.7 billion ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Strategy Raises Capital and Adjusts Bitcoin, Stock Holdings
Positive
Aug 10, 2026
On August 10, 2026, Strategy Inc. reported that, between August 3 and August 9, it raised $653.1 million in net proceeds through sales of 6,585,682 shares of its MSTR class A common stock under its at-the-market program, with most of the funds boo...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Strategy boosts USD reserves and maintains preferred dividends
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
Between July 27 and August 2, 2026, Strategy Inc. reported activity under its at-the-market program, selling 3,011,361 shares of its MSTR class A common stock for net proceeds of $290.6 million, while leaving substantial remaining issuance capacit...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Strategy Highlights Q2 Bitcoin Losses and Monetization Strategy
Negative
Jul 30, 2026
For the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, Strategy reported an operating loss of $8.33 billion and a net loss of $8.22 billion, largely driven by an $8.32 billion unrealized loss on digital assets following a sharp bitcoin price decline, even as...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Strategy Enhances Liquidity Through Recent Equity Transactions
Positive
Jul 27, 2026
Between July 20 and July 26, 2026, Strategy reported selling 5,429,160 shares of its MSTR Class A common stock under its at-the-market offering program, generating net proceeds of $544.5 million, while leaving significant remaining capacity for fu...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Strategy boosts liquidity via ATM stock sales
Positive
Jul 20, 2026
Between July 13 and July 19, 2026, Strategy Inc. reported that it sold 2,732,318 shares of its MSTR Class A common stock through its at-the-market program, generating net proceeds of $263.5 million, while leaving substantial remaining issuance cap...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.