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Moderna
(NASDAQ:MRNA)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$253.00
▲(59.29% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/30/26
MRNA scores mid-range primarily due to weak financial performance (large losses and negative free cash flow) that outweighs a strong balance-sheet position. Technicals are a meaningful positive with a strong uptrend, but overbought indicators increase pullback risk. The earnings call adds moderate support via reiterated growth guidance and improved cost outlook, while valuation remains challenged due to negative earnings and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Flexibility
Low-to-moderate leverage and substantial cash reserves give Moderna flexibility to fund research, launches, and operating needs while absorbing volatility. Although cash is declining, the balance sheet provides a meaningful buffer as the company works toward broader commercial diversification.
Negative Factors
Persistent Losses and Cash Burn
Ongoing losses and negative free cash flow mean Moderna is not currently self-funding its operations or pipeline. Continued cash consumption can reduce strategic flexibility over time, particularly if commercial launches take longer than expected to offset research and development spending.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Flexibility
Low-to-moderate leverage and substantial cash reserves give Moderna flexibility to fund research, launches, and operating needs while absorbing volatility. Although cash is declining, the balance sheet provides a meaningful buffer as the company works toward broader commercial diversification.
Read all positive factors
Moderna Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Product Sales by Geography
Shows where Moderna's products are selling the most, highlighting regional strengths and potential vulnerabilities due to local market conditions or regulatory environments.
Shows where Moderna's products are selling the most, highlighting regional strengths and potential vulnerabilities due to local market conditions or regulatory environments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyModerna (MRNA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$96.65B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)16.74M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.90
Revenue Growth-27.62%
EPS Growth-6.22%
CountryUS
Employees4,700
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-7.98
Shares Outstanding399,235,900
10 Day Avg. Volume19,818,426
30 Day Avg. Volume16,735,575
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.19
Price to Book (P/B)1.33
Price to Sales (P/S)5.90
P/FCF Ratio-5.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.25
Enterprise Value/Revenue10.78
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-85.79
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-8.49
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$118.13Price Target Upside-25.63% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)-8.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.10B
Moderna Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology firm, is dedicated to the discovery, development, and commercialization of messenger RNA (mRNA) based therapies and preventive medicines. Its extensive research and development efforts target a broad spectrum of medi...
How the Company Makes Money
Moderna primarily makes money by selling its commercial mRNA vaccine products, with revenue historically dominated by sales of its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, to government purchasers and commercial customers (e.g., wholesalers, pharmacies, and he...
Moderna Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed meaningful commercial and clinical progress — a Q2 revenue beat, multiple regulatory and market milestones (including a VRBPAC recommendation for the flu candidate and expanded approvals for respiratory products), clear cost and efficiency improvements, and advancing oncology/rare disease programs with important data and new dosing initiatives. These positives were tempered by a norovirus Phase III interim that did not meet early success criteria and slower case accrual, a significant litigation settlement payment (~$950M) that reduced cash, a substantial net loss and continued cash burn, and timing uncertainty for several event‑driven readouts. On balance, the highlights (regulatory momentum, product approvals/market uptake, cost discipline and pipeline advances) modestly outweigh the lowlights, supporting a constructive but cautious outlook.Positive Updates
Q2 Revenue Beat and Full-Year Growth Outlook
Revenue of $145 million in Q2 (reported as $0.1B) beat the guidance range and was up 2% year‑over‑year; reaffirmed expectation for up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 with an expected ~50/50 U.S./international split for the full year.
Negative Updates
Norovirus Phase III Interim Missed Early Success Criteria
mRNA‑1403 Phase III did not meet statistical criteria for early success at interim analysis; study remains blinded and the company is preparing to enroll an additional cohort and expects to run another seasonal accrual period because epidemiology and strain mix slowed case accrual.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q2 Revenue Beat and Full-Year Growth Outlook
Revenue of $145 million in Q2 (reported as $0.1B) beat the guidance range and was up 2% year‑over‑year; reaffirmed expectation for up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 with an expected ~50/50 U.S./international split for the full year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Moderna reiterated 2026 revenue growth of up to 10% (Q2 revenue was $145M, H1 revenue $0.5B, Q2 up 2% YoY) and expects a roughly 50/50 U.S./international split for the full year (Q2 was 60% U.S./40% international; H1 was 31% U.S./69% international), with third-quarter revenue representing ~55% of second‑half revenue; the company lowered its cost assumptions — cost of sales guidance down $0.1B to $1.7B (which includes a $0.9B litigation charge), R&D down $0.1B to $2.9B, and SG&A ~ $1.0B — and, excluding the $0.9B litigation charge, now expects total GAAP operating expenses of $4.7B and cash costs of $4.0B (each a $0.2B improvement versus prior guidance); Q2 results showed cost of sales $93M (‑22% YoY), R&D $651M (‑7% YoY), SG&A $216M (‑6% YoY), a net loss of $782M (loss per share $1.97 vs $2.13 prior year), cash and investments of $6.9B (down from $7.5B at Q1 end; note a $950M litigation payment made in July), projected year‑end cash of $4.7–5.2B, capex of $0.2–0.3B, taxes negligible, and guidance assumes potential COVID vaccination declines and no 2026 revenue from mFLUSIVA or mCOMBRIAX (cash guidance excludes use of the remaining $0.9B undrawn credit facility).Moderna Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
22
Negative
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.23B | 1.94B | 3.20B | 6.85B | 18.88B | 17.74B |
| Gross Profit | -280.00M | 1.08B | 1.74B | 2.15B | 13.46B | 15.12B |
| EBITDA | -2.83B | -2.55B | -3.39B | -3.28B | 9.95B | 13.54B |
| Net Income | -3.15B | -2.82B | -3.56B | -4.71B | 8.36B | 12.20B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.96B | 12.34B | 14.14B | 18.43B | 25.86B | 24.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.14B | 5.80B | 7.03B | 8.60B | 9.90B | 10.73B |
| Total Debt | 1.29B | 1.92B | 747.00M | 1.24B | 1.20B | 916.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 4.20B | 3.69B | 3.24B | 4.57B | 6.74B | 10.52B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.76B | 8.65B | 10.90B | 13.85B | 19.12B | 14.14B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.22B | -2.06B | -4.05B | -3.83B | 4.58B | 13.34B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -1.05B | -1.87B | -3.00B | -3.12B | 4.98B | 13.62B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 905.00M | 1.95B | 1.95B | 4.21B | -5.18B | -8.52B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 590.00M | 593.00M | 56.00M | -1.38B | -3.45B | -873.00M |
Moderna Technical Analysis
Positive
158.83
Price Trends
165.64
Positive
112.72
Positive
80.51
Positive
Market Momentum
21.35
Negative
69.12
Neutral
85.14
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MRNA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 158.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 210.03, below the 50-day MA of 165.64, and above the 200-day MA of 80.51, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 21.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.14 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MRNA.
Moderna Risk Analysis
Moderna disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Moderna reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Moderna Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $8.93B | 113.36 | 12.03% | ― | 34.81% | 44.59% | |
56 Neutral | $96.65B | -30.80 | -39.20% | ― | -27.62% | -6.22% | |
56 Neutral | $6.21B | -28.50 | -80.48% | ― | 53.51% | -3.31% | |
56 Neutral | $41.64B | -21.93 | -96.44% | ― | ― | -95.67% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
46 Neutral | $7.54B | -12.79 | -110.84% | ― | -7.49% | -98.12% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
MRNA
Moderna
245.81
219.56
836.42%
IONS
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44.27
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PTGX
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138.08
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86.65%
RYTM
Rhythm Pharmaceuticals
88.62
-20.50
-18.79%
RVMD
Revolution Medicines
194.28
140.84
263.55%
Moderna Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Moderna appoints COO as oncology expansion accelerates
Positive
Sep 30, 2026
On September 30, 2026, Moderna announced it is adding a Chief Operating Officer role as it expands into oncology and scales its infectious disease franchise, and that industry veteran Juan Andres will return as COO effective October 5, 2026. Andre...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Moderna Raises $3 Billion via Convertible Notes Offering
Positive
Sep 1, 2026
On September 1, 2026, Moderna completed a $3.0 billion private offering of 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2032, issued as senior unsecured obligations with flexible conversion features into cash, stock, or a mix, at an initial conversion price...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.