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Modine
(NYSE:MOD)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$145.00
▼(-22.88% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/02/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance (strong growth and improving leverage) and a constructive earnings outlook with ambitious guidance and expected margin recovery. Offsetting these positives are a rich valuation (high P/E with no dividend yield provided) and a technically weaker setup (below key moving averages with negative MACD), plus the recent margin compression highlighted in the financials and Q1 results.
Positive Factors
Data Center Growth
Rapid data-center growth, record order intake and a higher backlog indicate expanding demand for Modine’s thermal-management systems. The segment’s sustained multi-year growth can improve scale, deepen customer relationships and support a larger share of company revenue over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Margin Compression
The recent profitability step-down shows that strong revenue growth has not yet translated consistently into earnings expansion. Lower operating and net margins can restrict internal funding, reduce resilience to cost pressure and make the company’s growth outlook more dependent on successful margin recovery.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Data Center Growth
Rapid data-center growth, record order intake and a higher backlog indicate expanding demand for Modine’s thermal-management systems. The segment’s sustained multi-year growth can improve scale, deepen customer relationships and support a larger share of company revenue over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Modine (MOD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.97B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.37M
Price to Earnings (P/E)56.1
Beta (1Y)1.61
Revenue Growth29.47%
EPS Growth-23.92%
CountryUS
Employees13,200
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryIndustrial - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.67
Shares Outstanding53,196,920
10 Day Avg. Volume1,380,891
30 Day Avg. Volume1,367,542
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.70
Price to Book (P/B)9.80
Price to Sales (P/S)3.68
P/FCF Ratio111.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.88
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.45
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit20.06
Enterprise Value/Ebitda49.51
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$300.88Price Target Upside60.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)7.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.06B
Modine Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Modine Manufacturing Company specializes in delivering advanced thermal management systems and heat exchange components, primarily catering to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in both on- and off-highway vehicular markets. The company's ope...
How the Company Makes Money
Modine makes money primarily by selling thermal management products and engineered solutions to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), system integrators, contractors, and end customers across industrial and commercial markets. Revenue is genera...
Modine Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q1-2027)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized very strong top-line growth—particularly in data centers (90% YoY) and commercial HVAC (22% YoY)—record order intake, an ambitious full-year outlook, and progress on the PT separation. However, Q1 margins and free cash flow were pressured primarily by abrupt supply chain shortages, ramp inefficiencies, temporary mix effects and integration costs. Management consistently described these headwinds as transitory and provided specific recovery expectations (notably margin step-ups each quarter and strong data center earnings growth). Given the magnitude of the growth metrics, clear recovery plans, and an unchanged, constructive full-year outlook, positives materially outweigh the temporary challenges.Positive Updates
Data Center Revenue Surge
Data center segment revenues increased 90% year-over-year; Americas sales up 112% and EMEA sales up 18%. Management reported a third consecutive quarter of record order intake and a significantly higher backlog, and noted a >80% 3-year revenue CAGR for the segment.
Negative Updates
Data Center Supply Chain Shortages and Sequential Decline
Data center revenue declined sequentially from Q4 due to supply chain shortages of key components that materialized earlier than expected. Shortages caused temporary downtime, lower capacity utilization, and delayed shipments and customer program timing.
Read all updates
Q1-2027 Updates
Positive
Negative
Data Center Revenue Surge
Data center segment revenues increased 90% year-over-year; Americas sales up 112% and EMEA sales up 18%. Management reported a third consecutive quarter of record order intake and a significantly higher backlog, and noted a >80% 3-year revenue CAGR for the segment.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated fiscal 2027 guidance calling for total company sales growth of 20–35%, data center sales up 60–80%, commercial HVAC up 5–10% and Performance Technologies flat to +5%; company adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $650–680 million ( >40% growth) with 100–200 basis points of margin improvement and a sequential step‑up from Q1 to Q2, and full‑year free cash flow of 4–6% of sales. For context, Q1 sales rose 28% with gross margin 20.8% (down 340 bps), SG&A 11.8% of sales (down 60 bps), adjusted EBITDA up 5% to a 12.2% margin (down 270 bps), adjusted EPS $1.53 (+44%), net debt $433M and leverage 0.9; segment detail: data centers revenue +90% (Adj. EBITDA +27%, margin 14.8%; Americas +112%, EMEA +18%), commercial HVAC revenue +22% (HVAC Technologies +45% / +$24M, acquisitions +$20M; Heat Transfer Solutions +7% / +$11M), and Performance Technologies roughly flat to +5% with adj. EBITDA down 3% (margin 13%, -10 bps). Management characterized Q1 margin headwinds as transitory—driven by supply‑chain shortages, ramp inefficiencies and mix—and expressed confidence in securing components, executing capacity expansions and achieving the stated revenue, margin and cash‑flow targets.Modine Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.37B | 3.18B | 2.58B | 2.41B | 2.30B | 2.05B |
| Gross Profit | 747.70M | 731.10M | 645.40M | 527.20M | 389.40M | 309.30M |
| EBITDA | 303.00M | 297.80M | 358.10M | 294.80M | 208.00M | 171.90M |
| Net Income | 144.50M | 121.80M | 184.00M | 161.50M | 153.10M | 85.20M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.80B | 2.67B | 1.92B | 1.85B | 1.57B | 1.43B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 95.30M | 73.50M | 71.60M | 60.10M | 70.60M | 48.90M |
| Total Debt | 669.90M | 580.10M | 530.00M | 571.10M | 462.30M | 472.90M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.59B | 1.47B | 999.40M | 1.10B | 966.30M | 968.90M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.20B | 1.19B | 910.20M | 747.60M | 592.80M | 450.70M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 100.20M | 105.40M | 129.30M | 126.90M | 56.80M | -28.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 262.40M | 248.70M | 213.30M | 214.60M | 107.50M | 11.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -223.70M | -321.30M | -86.60M | -283.40M | -50.40M | -51.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -66.70M | 73.10M | -113.60M | 62.70M | -33.30M | 39.20M |
Modine Technical Analysis
Negative
188.01
Price Trends
178.28
Negative
207.36
Negative
209.13
Negative
Market Momentum
-10.74
Positive
26.80
Positive
9.06
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 188.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 169.67, above the 50-day MA of 178.28, and below the 200-day MA of 209.13, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -10.74 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.80 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.06 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MOD.
Modine Risk Analysis
Modine disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Modine reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Modine Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $103.72B | 35.45 | 34.49% | 0.87% | 7.04% | 4.58% | |
69 Neutral | $73.82B | 27.59 | 21.89% | 1.51% | 2.93% | -8.06% | |
66 Neutral | $46.30B | 38.86 | 8.89% | 1.67% | -1.58% | -43.59% | |
65 Neutral | $7.97B | 56.10 | 12.64% | ― | 29.47% | -23.92% | |
65 Neutral | $12.66B | 16.52 | 65.30% | 1.45% | -2.11% | -5.59% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
53 Neutral | $6.09B | 38.78 | 17.21% | 0.53% | 53.53% | 29.55% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MOD
Modine
135.17
-12.23
-8.30%
AAON
Aaon
69.62
-31.69
-31.28%
CMI
Cummins
519.53
107.81
26.19%
TT
Trane Technologies
448.80
36.82
8.94%
LII
Lennox International
378.72
-110.49
-22.59%
CARR
Carrier Global
56.48
0.23
0.40%
Modine Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Modine Spins Off Performance Technologies in Gentherm Merger
Positive
Oct 1, 2026
On October 1, 2026, Modine completed the spin-off of its Performance Technologies business into Platinum SpinCo Inc. and its subsequent merger with Gentherm in a Reverse Morris Trust deal, valuing the business at about $946.4 million. The transact...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsM&A Transactions
Modine Details Reverse Morris Trust Spin-Off Structure
Positive
Sep 17, 2026
On September 17, 2026, Modine and Gentherm detailed the structure and timing of their planned Reverse Morris Trust combination involving Modine’s Performance Technologies business. Modine will spin off the unit via Platinum SpinCo Inc., dist...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
Modine to rebrand as Modexus Solutions after spinoff
Positive
Sep 10, 2026
Modine announced on September 10, 2026 that it will change its corporate name to Modexus Solutions following the planned spinoff of its Performance Technologies business and merger with Gentherm, with the name change subject to shareholder approva...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Modine Shareholders Back Board, Compensation and Auditor Choices
Positive
Aug 21, 2026
On August 20, 2026, Modine shareholders elected Eric D. Ashleman, Alan S. Lowe, and Marsha C. Williams to the board of directors, each to serve until the 2029 annual meeting, reflecting continued support for the company’s existing governance...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Modine Restructures Climate Solutions Into New Reporting Segments
Neutral
Jul 24, 2026
Effective April 1, 2026, Modine reorganized its Climate Solutions operations by splitting them into two distinct segments, Data Centers and Commercial HVAC, and will report three operating segments, including Performance Technologies, starting wit...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.