Modine Manufacturing (MOD)
NYSE:MOD
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Modine
(NYSE:MOD)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$331.00
▲(35.82% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/27/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial strength and a multi-year turnaround, reinforced by strong technical uptrend signals and a very bullish earnings call outlook with raised growth/EBITDA guidance. The main constraint is valuation (high P/E and no dividend), plus recent TTM margin/earnings softness and near-term operational headwinds cited on the call.
Positive Factors
Data-center demand & $4B LTA
A multi-year $4B+ long-term agreement provides durable, contract-backed revenue visibility for 2027–2029, supporting capacity investments and de-risking sales volatility. The upfront payment funds scaling, underpins multi-year planning, and strengthens customer relationships in a high-growth end market.
Negative Factors
Recent margin compression and earnings dip
A recent decline in margins and lower TTM net income signals durability risk to profit conversion despite revenue growth. If cost pressures, integration expenses, or lost production persist, margin recovery may take multiple quarters and could limit free cash flow and ROI on recent capacity investments.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Data-center demand & $4B LTA
A multi-year $4B+ long-term agreement provides durable, contract-backed revenue visibility for 2027–2029, supporting capacity investments and de-risking sales volatility. The upfront payment funds scaling, underpins multi-year planning, and strengthens customer relationships in a high-growth end market.
Read all positive factors
Modine (MOD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$16.21B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.17M
Price to Earnings (P/E)136.1
Beta (1Y)1.82
Revenue Growth23.13%
EPS Growth-34.14%
CountryUS
Employees11,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.25
Shares Outstanding52,815,784
10 Day Avg. Volume1,729,284
30 Day Avg. Volume1,167,739
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.69
Price to Book (P/B)9.80
Price to Sales (P/S)3.68
P/FCF Ratio111.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.93
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.74
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit20.65
Enterprise Value/Ebitda50.68
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$336.83Price Target Upside38.21% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)7.78
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.04B
Modine Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Modine Manufacturing Company provides engineered heat transfer systems and heat transfer components for use in on- and off-highway original equipment manufacturer (OEM) vehicular applications. It operates through Climate Solutions and Performance ...
How the Company Makes Money
Modine makes money primarily by selling engineered thermal-management products and systems to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), contractors, and end customers. Revenue is generated through (1) product sales of heat-transfer components (e.g....
Modine Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 26, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strongly positive narrative: exceptional top-line growth (especially in data centers and Climate Solutions), record adjusted EBITDA and EPS gains, a landmark $4 billion LTA that validates demand, sizable acquisitions adding revenue, robust free cash flow and planned capacity expansion. Short-term challenges include supply chain component shortages, weather-related lost production, tariff and material cost pressure, and near-term margin compression in parts of the business. Management communicated clear mitigation plans, confidence in demand, and ambitious FY27 guidance. Overall, the positives (record results, large LTA, strong guidance, and cash generation) materially outweigh the temporary operational headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA
Fourth consecutive year of record-breaking revenue and adjusted EBITDA; consolidated adjusted EBITDA improved 40% year-over-year and adjusted EPS increased 53% to $1.71.
Negative Updates
Supply Chain and Component Shortages
Experienced shortages of certain critical components late in the quarter affecting production schedules and efficiency; management expects temporary impact to Q1 production while qualifying new vendors and implementing corrective actions.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA
Fourth consecutive year of record-breaking revenue and adjusted EBITDA; consolidated adjusted EBITDA improved 40% year-over-year and adjusted EPS increased 53% to $1.71.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Modine guided fiscal 2027 to total company sales growth of 20%–35%, with data center sales accelerating 60%–80% (up from prior multiyear 50%–70%), commercial HVAC up 5%–10%, coils mid‑single digits, and Performance Technologies flat to +5%; management expects each quarter to show >50% year‑over‑year sales growth and sequential increases in Q2–Q4. Full‑year adjusted EBITDA is forecast at $650M–$680M (greater than 40% growth, implying ~100–200 bps of margin expansion), free cash flow of roughly 4%–6% of sales, and a declining leverage ratio from FY26’s 0.8x; Q1 production may be temporarily constrained by part shortages but is not expected to affect the full‑year outlook. The outlook is supported by the $4B+ LTA for 2027–2029, FY26 data center revenue of $1.1B (Q4 >$400M), FY26 CapEx of $143M, Q4 FCF of $153M and a $165M upfront LTA payment recorded as a contract liability.Modine Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.18B | 2.58B | 2.41B | 2.30B | 2.05B |
| Gross Profit | 731.10M | 645.40M | 527.20M | 389.40M | 309.30M |
| EBITDA | 297.80M | 358.10M | 294.80M | 208.00M | 171.90M |
| Net Income | 121.80M | 184.00M | 161.50M | 153.10M | 85.20M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.67B | 1.92B | 1.85B | 1.57B | 1.43B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 73.50M | 71.60M | 60.10M | 70.60M | 48.90M |
| Total Debt | 580.10M | 530.00M | 571.10M | 462.30M | 472.90M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.47B | 999.40M | 1.10B | 966.30M | 968.90M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.19B | 910.20M | 747.60M | 592.80M | 450.70M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 105.40M | 129.30M | 126.10M | 56.80M | -28.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 248.70M | 213.30M | 214.60M | 107.50M | 11.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -321.30M | -86.60M | -283.40M | -50.40M | -51.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 73.10M | -113.60M | 62.70M | -33.30M | 39.20M |
Modine Technical Analysis
Positive
243.71
Price Trends
253.05
Positive
221.74
Positive
183.88
Positive
Market Momentum
11.44
Negative
61.13
Neutral
70.71
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 243.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 275.15, below the 50-day MA of 253.05, and above the 200-day MA of 183.88, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 11.44 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MOD.
Modine Risk Analysis
Modine disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Modine reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Modine Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $16.21B | 136.06 | 11.10% | ― | 23.13% | -34.14% | |
74 Outperform | $7.38B | 14.23 | 10.41% | 2.63% | 2.86% | 17.30% | |
71 Outperform | $15.19B | 42.01 | 6.34% | 1.24% | 2.36% | 34.03% | |
70 Outperform | $3.76B | 19.99 | 13.06% | ― | 5.04% | -10.80% | |
64 Neutral | $9.63B | 17.98 | 29.49% | 1.07% | 13.99% | -25.70% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $15.63B | 43.26 | 3.90% | ― | 5.20% | -71.83% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MOD
Modine
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Modine Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Modine Amends Credit Agreement for Performance Technologies Spin-Off
Neutral
May 5, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Modine Manufacturing Company and Airedale International Air Conditioning amended their existing credit agreement with a syndicate of lenders led by JPMorgan Chase to facilitate the planned separation, disposition, and spin-off o...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.