Aptiv (APTV) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

For 2026, Aptiv is maintaining its income statement guidance from last quarter with the key metrics unchanged at the midpoint, while the revenue range is narrowed; full-year free cash flow guidance is narrowed with the midpoint lowered by $25 million to $650 million, and the initial $450 million drag associated with spin-related costs and supply chain resilience is now $500 million. For the fourth quarter, revenue is forecast at $3.2 billion at the midpoint, representing adjusted growth of 3%, adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $612 million with a margin of 19.4% at the midpoint, and earnings per share is guided to $1.45 at the midpoint. Aptiv plans to repurchase at least $650 million by year end and return 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders during 2026, is on track to reach its $20 billion bookings target, and is on track to generate more than $3 billion in 2026 revenues, including $2 billion in A&D, telecom and datacom and diversified industrials. For 2027, third-party forecasts call for flat vehicle production globally, which Aptiv has anchored to the top end of its range and considers optimistic; it is estimating approximately $700 million in inflation related to semiconductor prices primarily memory, expects the 2 German luxury OEM headwind to persist through the end of 27, and expects it will be a flat to slightly positive year, with the 26 to 27 points incremental margin algorithm on revenue growth ex recoveries remaining, while returning 100% of free cash flow to shareholders through at least the end of 27.