Mayville Engineering Company (MEC) AI Stock Analysis

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Mayville Engineering Company

(NYSE:MEC)

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Rating:53Neutral

Price Target:$14.00▼(-0.14% Downside)

Action:reiterated

Date:11/04/26

The score is held back primarily by weak recent profitability and negative free cash flow, alongside bearish intermediate technical trends (below key moving averages and negative MACD). These are partially offset by a strong, low-leverage balance sheet and a constructive earnings call focused on strong demand in data center/critical power, an expanding pipeline, and expectations for sequential margin improvement as ramp costs decline.

Positive Factors

Data center growthRapid growth in data center and critical power, combined with a qualified pipeline above $200 million, supports a durable expansion opportunity. New awards and low customer penetration could broaden MEC’s program base and improve mix toward higher-value work over the next several years.

Negative Factors

Profitability resetThe sharp deterioration in margins and move to a net loss show that revenue growth is not currently converting efficiently into earnings. Persistent cost, pricing, or mix pressure would limit internal funding capacity and weaken the durability of returns unless planned operating improvements materialize.

Mayville Engineering Company Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Net Sales by Product CategoryBreaks down revenue across the company’s product lines (for example pumps, separators, parts, and engineered systems), showing which products drive sales and margins. High concentration in one product type highlights dependence and single-product risk, while growth in higher-margin categories indicates improving profitability and successful product strategy.

Chart Insights

Revenue mix is actively shifting: Fabrication has become the growth engine (driven by AccuFab and surging data‑center/critical‑power demand) while Performance Structures also shows durable upside since 2023. Legacy lines (Tube, Tank, Outdoor Sports) are uneven or declining, creating headwinds to organic growth. Management’s call confirms strong bookings and cross‑sell momentum but also explains near‑term margin and cash pressure from launch costs, higher capex needs and rising leverage — watch Fabrication conversion to sustained margin improvement and any capacity investments that protect the pipeline.

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Mayville Engineering Company (MEC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $357.52M
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 529.93K
Price to Earnings (P/E): -20.5
Beta (1Y): 0.94
Revenue Growth: 14.78%
EPS Growth: -216.65%
Country: US
Employees: 2,400
Sector: Industrials
Sector Strength: 63
Industry: Manufacturing - Metal Fabrication

Mayville Engineering Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mayville Engineering Company, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, design, prototyping and tooling, fabrication, aluminum extrusion, coating, and assembling of aftermarket components in the United States. It supplies engin...

How the Company Makes Money

MEC makes money primarily by providing contract manufacturing services to OEMs and Tier suppliers under customer purchase orders and supply agreements, generating revenue from the sale of fabricated metal components, subassemblies, and finished assem...

Mayville Engineering Company Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 03, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:-12.70%|Next Earnings Date:Mar 02, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was predominantly positive, driven by 18.1% sales growth, strong data center and critical power momentum, a qualified pipeline above $200 million, commercial vehicle and construction growth, and significant planned capacity expansion. The main challenges were temporary launch and outsourcing costs, customer timing shifts, labor constraints, underutilization in agriculture and power sports, negative free cash flow, and expected fourth-quarter margin pressure. Management remained confident in sequential improvement during 2027 and the longer-term multiyear growth opportunity.

Positive Updates

Strong Third-Quarter Revenue Growth

Third-quarter net sales increased 18.1% year over year to $170.4 million, supported by growth in data center and critical power, commercial vehicle, and construction and access.

Negative Updates

Data Center Launch and Outsourcing Costs

MEC incurred approximately $3 million of data center and critical power project launch and outsourcing costs, along with premium labor costs, during the quarter. Management said ramp-related costs are expected to decline through early 2027 as equipment is delivered, outsourced production returns in-house, and open positions are filled.

Company Guidance

For the full year of 2026, MEC currently expects net sales of between $630 million and $640 million, adjusted EBITDA of between $48 million and $50 million, and free cash flow use of between $6 million and $16 million, with planned capital expenditures of $25 million to $35 million; fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be modestly below the third quarter level, while ramp related costs are expected to decline through early 27. MEC expects to reach full capacity within the next 18 months, the Thompson, Georgia facility to add approximately $50 million of annual revenue capacity by 2028, and total investment in the location through 2028 of $25 million, including approximately $10 million of capital expenditures in 2027 with the remaining to be invested in 2028, subject to an internal rate of return of at least 15%. The company continues to target an approximately 15% adjusted EBITDA margin, expects measurable margin improvement over the next 12 to 18 months, and expects 2027 to be a year of continued growth with margins improving sequentially rather than in a single step, with the benefit most visible as it exits the year and moves into 2028; it is not providing 2027 guidance today.

Mayville Engineering Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed. Income statement quality is weak due to a profitability reset (TTM loss with sharply compressed gross and EBITDA margins), and cash flow is pressured with TTM free cash flow negative despite positive operating cash flow. Offsetting this, the balance sheet is a strength with very low debt-to-equity, providing flexibility to navigate the current margin and cash flow softness.

Income Statement

34Negative

Balance Sheet

74Positive

Cash Flow

45Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	612.39M	546.49M	581.60M	588.42M	539.39M	454.83M
Gross Profit	50.08M	54.01M	71.10M	69.70M	61.07M	51.38M
EBITDA	17.28M	37.44M	82.14M	55.05M	55.09M	24.39M
Net Income	-14.20M	-8.11M	25.97M	7.84M	18.73M	-7.45M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	605.84M	563.64M	445.57M	496.66M	440.58M	379.47M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.51M	1.50M	206.00K	672.00K	127.00K	118.00K
Total Debt	158.87M	25.57M	110.05M	181.16M	108.98M	67.61M
Total Liabilities	278.51M	322.90M	193.82M	266.68M	222.71M	181.20M
Stockholders Equity	327.33M	240.74M	251.75M	229.98M	217.87M	198.27M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-6.78M	26.91M	77.71M	23.77M	-6.18M	-24.85M
Operating Cash Flow	16.38M	38.56M	89.81M	40.36M	52.43M	14.46M
Investing Cash Flow	-23.00M	-151.53M	-11.71M	-104.13M	-50.67M	-33.96M
Financing Cash Flow	6.91M	114.26M	-78.56M	64.31M	-1.75M	19.50M

Mayville Engineering Company Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price14.02

Price Trends

50DMA15.91Negative

100DMA21.97Negative

200DMA22.49Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.54Negative

RSI44.24Neutral

STOCH35.46Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MEC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.19, below the 50-day MA of 15.91, and below the 200-day MA of 22.49, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MEC.

Mayville Engineering Company Risk Analysis

Mayville Engineering Company disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mayville Engineering Company reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

3 New Risks

1.Macroeconomic conditions impacting data center & critical power end-market demand could have a material adverse impact on our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.Q4, 2025

2.We have a material weakness in our internal control over financial reporting. If our remediation of this material weakness is not effective, or if we experience additional material weaknesses in the future or otherwise fail to maintain an effective system of internal controls, we may not be able to accurately or timely report our financial condition or results of operations, which may adversely affect investor confidence in us and, as a result, the value of our common stock.Q4, 2024

3.In addition to not having a commitment from our customers and anticipated new customers regarding the minimum number of components they must purchase from us if we obtain awarded business, typically the terms and conditions of the agreements with our customers provide that they have the contractual right to unilaterally terminate our contracts with them with no notice or limited notice. In many cases, we must commit substantial resources in preparation for production under awarded customer business well in advance of the customer's production start date. If such contracts are terminated by our customers, our ability to obtain compensation from our customers for such termination is generally limited to the direct out-of-pocket costs that we incurred for raw materials and work-in-progress. Although we have been successful in recovering these costs under appropriate circumstances in the past, we cannot assure you that our results of operations will not be materially adversely impacted in the future if we are unable to recover these types of pre-production costs related to our customers' cancellation of awarded business. Failure to compete successfully in our markets could materially adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations or prospects.Q4, 2024

Mayville Engineering Company Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

MEC against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NWPX	73Outperform	$868.43M	16.46	12.93%	―	15.95%	49.06%
Sector *	63Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
TG	56Neutral	$201.60M	8.43	10.48%	―	14.60%	99.39%
MEC	53Neutral	$350.38M	-20.52	-5.05%	―	14.78%	-216.65%
AP	47Neutral	$140.48M	-2.62	-178.13%	―	1.27%	-968.82%
TPCS	46Neutral	$54.04M	-41.85	-15.08%	―	-0.19%	38.34%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

MEC and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
MEC	Mayville Engineering Company	14.02	-2.19	-13.51%
AP	Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation	7.34	5.17	238.25%
NWPX	Northwest Pipe	91.38	33.98	59.20%
TG	Tredegar Corp	5.73	-2.70	-32.03%
TPCS	Techprecision Corporation	5.24	0.76	16.96%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 04, 2026

Mayville Engineering Company AI Stock Analysis