Pediatrix Medical Group (MD) AI Stock Analysis

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Pediatrix Medical Group

(NYSE:MD)

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Rating:74Outperform

Price Target:$37.00▲(17.65% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:10/29/26

The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance (return to solid profitability and strong TTM revenue growth, supported by robust free cash flow) and strong technicals (price above key moving averages with positive momentum). Earnings call factors are supportive due to narrowed EBITDA guidance and meaningful buybacks, but tempered by cost pressures and weaker operating cash flow. Valuation is reasonable at a ~13.7 P/E, with no dividend yield data to add support.

Positive Factors

Strong Revenue Growth and ProfitabilityThe shift from losses in 2023–2024 to solid profitability in 2025 and the TTM period indicates a materially stronger earnings base. Sustained revenue expansion gives Pediatrix more capacity to fund clinical investment, absorb costs, and reinforce its position in women’s and children’s healthcare.

Negative Factors

Cost and Mix Pressure on Earnings QualityLower gross profit dollars and EBITDA alongside strong revenue growth suggest that cost structure or business mix is limiting operating leverage. If this persists, revenue expansion may produce less incremental earnings and could constrain investment capacity and margin durability.

Pediatrix Medical Group (MD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $2.46B
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 745.65K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.8
Beta (1Y): 0.63
Revenue Growth: 1.91%
EPS Growth: -1.56%
Country: US
Employees: 4,280
Sector: Healthcare
Sector Strength: 51
Industry: Medical - Care Facilities

Pediatrix Medical Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. delivers specialized medical services for newborns, expectant mothers, and pediatric patients across the United States and Puerto Rico. The company offers crucial neonatal care to critically ill or prematurely born infan...

How the Company Makes Money

Pediatrix makes money primarily by billing and collecting fees for medical services delivered by its affiliated clinicians. Revenue is generated when Pediatrix-employed or affiliated physicians and other clinicians provide patient care (often in hosp...

Pediatrix Medical Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:8.79%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 18, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was predominantly positive: Pediatrix reported adjusted EBITDA above expectations, revenue and same-unit growth, favorable payer mix and pricing drivers, substantial share repurchases, low leverage, and continued strategic flexibility. Offsetting concerns included lower operating cash flow, higher labor and other operating costs, the reversal of prior collection-related pricing benefits, declines in certain neonatology services, and regulatory and hospital-environment uncertainty.

Positive Updates

Strong Q3 Adjusted EBITDA and Raised Confidence

Q3 adjusted EBITDA was $85 million, or $85.5 million as referenced in the Q&A, and results exceeded management's expectations despite increasing costs in virtually all areas of providing health care. The company narrowed its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook to $290 million to $300 million.

Negative Updates

Revenue Cycle Management Tailwind Began to Reverse

The company began to lap the strong tailwind from improved collection activity. Management said this lapping reduced pricing by a little over 100 basis points in the quarter, although it described the current revenue cycle management environment as stable.

Company Guidance

Pediatrix narrowed its full year 2026 outlook to $290 million to $300 million in adjusted EBITDA; management said payer mix may remain stable, hospital administrative fee conversations and successes are expected to continue, and acuity is considered sustainable, although there is variability and factors “do bounce around a bit.” RCM impacted the quarter by a little over 100 basis points and is currently “very stable,” with the company continuing to look for ways to further automate and deliver improvement over the next coming years. Clinical salary growth is expected to remain in that 3%, 3.5% area, while management provided no guidance for 2027, said the 2027 coding rules should be finalized in the next few weeks in November, and said the OBH business is not a material part of the company.

Pediatrix Medical Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement strength (74) reflects a clear shift to sustained profitability with strong TTM revenue growth, partially offset by signs of cost/mix pressure (lower TTM gross profit dollars and EBITDA vs. 2025). Cash flow is solid (71) with strong absolute free cash flow and good alignment to earnings, though TTM FCF declined and cash conversion is only modest. Balance sheet is improved (66) with declining leverage and substantial equity, but leverage remains meaningful for the model and equity has been somewhat volatile.

Income Statement

74Positive

Balance Sheet

66Positive

Cash Flow

71Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.96B	1.91B	2.01B	1.99B	1.97B	1.91B
Gross Profit	506.06M	471.88M	454.34M	421.56M	467.03M	513.24M
EBITDA	250.01M	274.22M	-28.37M	29.89M	156.70M	236.10M
Net Income	150.09M	165.39M	-99.07M	-60.41M	66.33M	130.96M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.14B	2.25B	2.15B	2.22B	2.35B	2.72B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	425.84M	499.72M	348.51M	177.74M	103.06M	487.11M
Total Debt	612.00M	660.30M	662.31M	701.65M	717.08M	1.07B
Total Liabilities	1.29B	1.38B	1.39B	1.37B	1.46B	1.83B
Stockholders Equity	849.62M	865.85M	764.94M	849.06M	891.63M	896.49M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	209.94M	252.63M	184.55M	104.00M	137.23M	44.49M
Operating Cash Flow	227.23M	271.09M	206.57M	137.32M	166.94M	76.74M
Investing Cash Flow	-20.88M	-18.30M	-35.41M	-48.18M	-56.95M	-53.07M
Financing Cash Flow	-234.94M	-107.49M	-14.48M	-25.71M	-487.55M	-760.12M

Pediatrix Medical Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price31.45

Price Trends

50DMA27.71Positive

100DMA26.91Positive

200DMA24.26Positive

Market Momentum

MACD1.25Negative

RSI66.55Neutral

STOCH54.50Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 31.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.75, above the 50-day MA of 27.71, and above the 200-day MA of 24.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MD.

Pediatrix Medical Group Risk Analysis

Pediatrix Medical Group disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Pediatrix Medical Group reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.

Legal & Regulatory - Litigation, compliance, new legislation, and taxation risks

Latest Risks Added

3 New Risks

1.Our use of artificial intelligence ("AI") technologies may expose us to additional legal, regulatory, operational, and competitive risks.Q4, 2025

2.State healthcare transaction laws could adversely affect our operations.Q4, 2024

3.We are dependent upon our key management personnel for our future success and loss of our key management and other personnel or an inability to attract new management and other personnel could impact our business.Q4, 2024

Pediatrix Medical Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (51)

Financial Indicators

MD against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
THC	87Outperform	$23.10B	8.44	60.60%	―	6.23%	136.09%
UHS	76Outperform	$11.26B	8.16	19.54%	0.41%	8.00%	13.14%
MD	74Outperform	$2.47B	16.82	17.28%	―	1.91%	-1.56%
ARDT	68Neutral	$2.53B	17.49	9.48%	―	2.03%	-28.50%
HCA	64Neutral	$105.37B	16.72	-100.45%	0.60%	5.82%	16.59%
Sector *	51Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
CYH	44Neutral	$306.03M	8.48	-2.51%	―	-7.84%	-88.93%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

MD and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
MD	Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.	31.45	8.82	38.97%
CYH	Community Health Systems	2.29	-1.05	-31.44%
HCA	Hca Healthcare	506.04	35.98	7.65%
THC	Tenet Healthcare Corp.	292.97	96.31	48.97%
UHS	Universal Health Services	196.77	-29.81	-13.16%
ARDT	Ardent Health Partners, Inc.	18.19	8.89	95.59%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 29, 2026

Pediatrix Medical Group AI Stock Analysis