Aveanna Healthcare Holdings (AVAH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.06B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 600.47K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 301.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.21
• Revenue Growth: 9.05%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 33,500
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 44
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 195,093,870
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 603,914
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 600,469
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): -34.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.18
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.21
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.19
• 1Y Price Target: $6.06
• Price Target Upside: 11.40% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.50 ▲(1.10%Upside)

Aveanna Healthcare’s overall stock score reflects its financial vulnerabilities due to negative equity and high leverage, despite operational improvements and strong earnings growth. Technical indicators suggest moderate market momentum, while valuation concerns persist due to a high P/E ratio. Earnings call insights are positive, focusing on strategic growth and payor partnerships, but labor and cash flow challenges remain key risks.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

AVAH reported $45.6m of EBITDA on $505m of revenue, which beat consensus estimates by 22.8% and 2.3%, respectively.

Growth Outlook

Aveanna Healthcare is experiencing above-average volume growth in its core PDS segment, enhancing its long-term growth outlook.

Operational Momentum

Improved state reimbursement and Preferred Payer strategy are driving operational momentum for Aveanna Healthcare Holdings.

Negative Factors

Debt Management

Net leverage is ~1.5x lower than it was just one year ago.

Profitability Challenges

2Q24 marks the first quarter since 2Q22 that EBITDA exceeded interest expense.

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings (AVAH) is a leading provider of home healthcare services in the United States. The company operates primarily in the pediatric and adult patient care sectors, offering a comprehensive range of services including private duty nursing, home health and hospice care, therapy services, and medical solutions. Aveanna is committed to delivering high-quality, compassionate care tailored to meet the diverse needs of its patients across various stages of life.

How the Company Makes Money

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings generates revenue through its diverse portfolio of home healthcare services. The primary revenue streams include private duty nursing, which provides continuous skilled nursing care to patients in their homes, and home health and hospice services that offer medical and non-medical care to patients with chronic illnesses or those in need of end-of-life care. Additionally, Aveanna earns income through therapy services, including physical, occupational, and speech therapies, and medical solutions that provide specialized equipment and supplies. The company's earnings are bolstered by strategic partnerships with insurance providers, government programs such as Medicare and Medicaid, and other healthcare organizations, ensuring a steady flow of clients and consistent reimbursement for services rendered.

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Moderate revenue growth and improving cash flows are overshadowed by negative equity and high leverage, posing financial instability risks. Operational improvements need to address significant debt levels for better financial health.

Income Statement

The income statement shows moderate revenue growth over recent years, with a notable increase from $1.89 billion in 2023 to $2.09 billion TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Gross profit margins are stable, rising slightly from 31.4% in 2024 to 32% in TTM. However, the net profit margin is low at 0.73% TTM due to significant interest and operating expenses, though it has improved from negative in previous years. EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively weak at 8.16% and 5.68% TTM, respectively, indicating room for operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is concerning, showing negative stockholders' equity of -$98.7 million TTM, indicating financial instability. The debt-to-equity ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, but the high total debt of $1.32 billion suggests leverage risks. Return on Equity (ROE) is also unmeasurable due to negative equity, but the consistent negative equity ratio highlights the potential risk of insolvency.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals improvements in free cash flow, which increased from $16.56 million in 2023 to $28.62 million TTM, reflecting a positive trend. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 2.35 TTM, indicating good cash conversion despite low net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 1.87, suggesting efficient cash generation relative to profit levels. However, fluctuations in operating cash flows in previous years indicate potential volatility.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Mar 2022	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.09B	2.02B	1.90B	1.79B	1.68B	1.50B
	Gross Profit
670.41M	635.54M	595.43M	553.23M	542.40M	454.51M
	EBIT
170.80M	139.79M	8.07M	26.30M	95.97M	81.95M
	EBITDA
118.96M	192.84M	44.35M	-517.28M	-9.26M	22.13M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
15.35M	-10.93M	-134.52M	-662.03M	-117.04M	-57.05M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
71.49M	84.29M	43.94M	19.22M	30.49M	137.34M
	Total Assets
1.66B	1.66B	1.61B	1.71B	2.33B	1.84B
	Total Debt
1.32B	1.33B	1.50B	1.36B	1.30B	1.23B
	Net Debt
1.25B	1.25B	1.46B	1.34B	1.27B	1.09B
	Total Liabilities
1.76B	1.79B	1.74B	1.72B	1.70B	1.58B
	Stockholders Equity
-98.67M	-122.09M	-127.44M	-4.17M	637.95M	267.17M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
28.62M	26.32M	16.56M	-60.41M	-27.30M	101.38M
	Operating Cash Flow
35.98M	32.64M	22.67M	-48.40M	-11.35M	116.62M
	Investing Cash Flow
-7.36M	-6.32M	-8.79M	-25.29M	-681.83M	-193.54M
	Financing Cash Flow
269.00K	14.03M	10.85M	62.42M	586.33M	210.94M

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5.44
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVAH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.52, above the 50-day MA of 5.12, and above the 200-day MA of 5.04, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AVAH.

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HCSG	73 Outperform	$1.06B	26.41	8.37%	―	3.71%	1.32%
USPH	70 Outperform	$1.20B	36.35	6.72%	2.28%	14.30%	76.89%
PNTG	69 Neutral	$977.20M	36.07	11.28%	―	30.04%	43.47%
BKD	56 Neutral	$1.66B	―	-91.17%	―	3.88%	-34.30%
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.38B	3.40	-45.06%	3.28%	16.75%	-0.02%
AVAH	53 Neutral	$1.06B	301.72	42.49%	―	9.05%	―
AMN	45 Neutral	$843.03M	18.62	-21.08%	―	-18.13%	-215.78%

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Corporate Events

Aveanna Healthcare Holds 2025 Annual Stockholders Meeting

On May 9, 2025, Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. conducted its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. During the meeting, three Class I directors were elected to the Board for three-year terms, Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as the independent public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending January 3, 2026, and a non-binding advisory resolution on executive compensation was approved. No other matters were addressed at the meeting.

Aveanna Healthcare Highlights Financial Performance in Presentation

On May 9, 2025, Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. released a financial presentation to investors, emphasizing the company’s use of its website as a primary channel for distributing important information. The presentation highlighted Aveanna’s financial performance and operational statistics, including over $2.15 billion in revenue and a significant presence across 34 states with 26,500 caregivers. The company continues to focus on growth strategies and maintaining a diverse payor mix, which is crucial for its financial stability and market positioning.

Aveanna Healthcare Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Performance

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings reported a strong financial performance for the first quarter of 2025, with a 14.0% increase in revenue to $559.2 million and a significant rise in adjusted EBITDA by 93.1% compared to the previous year. The company also revised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to exceed $2.15 billion and adjusted EBITDA to surpass $207 million, reflecting positive momentum and strategic transformations, including successful cost reductions and improved reimbursement rates.

Aveanna Healthcare Director Resigns Due to Health Reasons

On March 27, 2025, Dr. Sheldon Retchin, a Class III Director of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc., resigned from the Board of Directors due to personal health reasons. His departure was not related to any disagreements with the company’s operations or policies. Dr. Retchin was an independent director and served on both the Audit Committee and as Chair of the Clinical Quality Committee.

Aveanna Healthcare Projects Strong 2025 Financial Outlook

On March 14, 2025, Aveanna Healthcare Holdings released a financial presentation to investors, highlighting key operational statistics and financial guidance for 2025. The company projects revenues between $2.10 billion and $2.12 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA of $190 million to $194 million. Aveanna operates 341 locations with 26,500 caregivers, delivering 41.6 million homecare hours. The company emphasizes its strategic use of its website for distributing important information, underscoring its commitment to transparency and timely communication with stakeholders.

Aveanna Healthcare Reports Strong Q4 2024 Financial Results

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, with a notable 8.6% increase in revenue to $519.9 million and a significant rise in adjusted EBITDA by 42.8% compared to the previous year. The company also provided a positive outlook for 2025, expecting revenue between $2.10 and $2.12 billion and adjusted EBITDA between $190 and $194 million, driven by strategic cost reductions and enhanced government and payor partnerships.