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Brookdale Senior Living
(NYSE:BKD)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$10.50
▼(-13.93% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/09/26
BKD’s score is held back primarily by high balance-sheet risk (negative equity, elevated debt) and still-weak profitability, despite improved operating and free cash flow. Technicals also remain unfavorable with the stock below key moving averages and negative momentum. Offsetting these, the latest earnings call was constructive with reaffirmed guidance, improving occupancy/RevPAR trends, and stronger liquidity actions, supporting a modestly higher score than fundamentals and technicals alone.
Positive Factors
Occupancy recovery
Sustained occupancy improvement directly strengthens Brookdale’s recurring resident-fee model because fuller communities spread fixed operating costs across more residents. Continued sequential and year-over-year gains also indicate improving demand and utilization that can support revenue and margin recovery over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Stressed balance sheet
Negative equity combined with elevated debt leaves Brookdale structurally exposed to refinancing, covenant, and interest-cost pressure. This limits the cash available for growth investments and makes the company more dependent on sustained operating improvement and successful deleveraging.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Occupancy recovery
Sustained occupancy improvement directly strengthens Brookdale’s recurring resident-fee model because fuller communities spread fixed operating costs across more residents. Continued sequential and year-over-year gains also indicate improving demand and utilization that can support revenue and margin recovery over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.42B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.47M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)-0.10
Revenue Growth-4.42%
EPS Growth44.67%
CountryUS
Employees33,000
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.58
Shares Outstanding238,817,250
10 Day Avg. Volume5,192,920
30 Day Avg. Volume4,473,014
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.39
Price to Book (P/B)-56.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.81
P/FCF Ratio153.19
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.72
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.98
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit20.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda23.04
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$19.13Price Target Upside56.76% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.93B
Brookdale Senior Living Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Brookdale Senior Living Inc., founded in 2005 and based in Brentwood, Tennessee, specializes in the ownership, operation, and management of senior residential communities across the United States. Its services are structured into three distinct di...
How the Company Makes Money
Brookdale primarily makes money by charging residents recurring monthly fees for living in its senior living communities. Its revenue model is largely service-based and tied to occupancy (how many units are filled) and rate levels (monthly pricing...
Brookdale Senior Living Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call was constructive and cautiously optimistic. Management reported solid RevPAR (+8.2% YoY), modest adjusted EBITDA growth (+4.3% YoY in Q2) and positive adjusted free cash flow, while proactively strengthening liquidity and refinancing near-term maturities. They reaffirmed full‑year guidance and outlined clear execution actions (sales leadership hire, First Impressions reinvestments, selective acquisitions, and cost actions) to accelerate results in H2. Key challenges remain — occupancy growth lagged internal expectations in Q2, resident fees declined due to unit base reductions, some operating expenses were elevated, and leverage, though improved, is still above target. On balance, the positives and execution plans materially outweigh the near-term operational headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong RevPAR Growth and Guidance Reaffirmed
Consolidated RevPAR increased 8.2% in Q2 2026 (in line with company pacing). Management reaffirmed full-year RevPAR guidance of 8%–9% and expects RevPAR acceleration in H2 2026.
Negative Updates
Occupancy Pace Below Expectations in Q2
Management acknowledged consolidated occupancy growth did not inflect as quickly as anticipated in Q2 despite YoY gains; occupancy was slightly below internal expectations, prompting additional sales and operational actions.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong RevPAR Growth and Guidance Reaffirmed
Consolidated RevPAR increased 8.2% in Q2 2026 (in line with company pacing). Management reaffirmed full-year RevPAR guidance of 8%–9% and expects RevPAR acceleration in H2 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Brookdale reaffirmed 2026 guidance of 8%–9% consolidated RevPAR growth and $502M–$516M adjusted EBITDA, and reiterated its multi‑year targets of mid‑teen annual adjusted EBITDA growth and reducing leverage to <6.0x by year‑end 2028; Q2 actuals included $122.1M adjusted EBITDA (+4.3% YoY), RevPAR +8.2% YoY, consolidated RevPOR +5.2% (same‑community +4.1%), consolidated occupancy 82.4% (+230 bps YoY; same‑community 82.9% +110 bps), and adjusted free cash flow of $38.2M (now meaningfully positive YTD). Management expects full‑year consolidated occupancy of ~83%, average units of 42,820 in Q2 declining to ~42,200 in Q3 and ~41,500 in Q4 (reflecting planned dispositions), third‑quarter adjusted EBITDA growth in the low double‑digits and fourth‑quarter growth above mid‑teens, labor as a % of revenue to slightly improve in Q3/Q4, annual G&A of ~$157M, cash lease expense slightly under $180M, CapEx of $175M–$195M, liquidity of $566M and annualized leverage improved to 8.4x (from 8.8x). Strategic transactions noted: closed Brookdale Galleria for $23.4M (244 units), announced purchase of 17 leased communities for ~ $157M (735 units; ~$214k/unit) expected to add roughly $11M to 2027 adjusted EBITDA, and expect ~30 “First Impressions” projects in 2026 averaging $500k–$600k each, with total disposition net proceeds for 2026 of ~ $190M.Brookdale Senior Living Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.02B | 3.12B | 2.98B | 2.87B | 2.74B | 2.75B |
| Gross Profit | 435.18M | 645.02M | 807.43M | 744.71M | 513.94M | 488.58M |
| EBITDA | 390.23M | 358.72M | 430.53M | 376.99M | 319.92M | 425.23M |
| Net Income | -138.31M | -262.69M | -201.94M | -189.01M | -238.43M | -99.29M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.90B | 5.95B | 6.34B | 5.57B | 5.94B | 6.41B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 390.29M | 279.12M | 328.80M | 307.73M | 447.53M | 529.42M |
| Total Debt | 1.29B | 6.66B | 5.65B | 4.73B | 4.89B | 5.23B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.93B | 6.00B | 6.12B | 5.17B | 5.35B | 5.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | -28.98M | -44.75M | 212.47M | 403.66M | 582.61M | 697.40M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 23.73M | 16.50M | -34.44M | -70.28M | -193.64M | -271.29M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 223.87M | 218.03M | 166.18M | 162.92M | 3.28M | -94.63M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -70.93M | -455.95M | -278.07M | -113.36M | -67.43M | 181.46M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -34.96M | 201.09M | 142.06M | -174.44M | 100.38M | -113.66M |
Brookdale Senior Living Technical Analysis
Negative
12.20
Price Trends
12.03
Negative
13.08
Negative
13.40
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.44
Positive
25.80
Positive
40.66
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BKD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.12, above the 50-day MA of 12.03, and below the 200-day MA of 13.40, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.80 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BKD.
Brookdale Senior Living Risk Analysis
Brookdale Senior Living disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Brookdale Senior Living reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Brookdale Senior Living Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85 Outperform | $3.56B | 25.09 | 12.94% | 1.15% | 7.19% | 32.91% | |
73 Outperform | $10.01B | 26.32 | 16.53% | 0.15% | 18.89% | 15.48% | |
68 Neutral | $6.86B | 25.64 | 27.15% | ― | 15.15% | 101.51% | |
62 Neutral | $1.39B | 42.36 | 9.51% | ― | 37.90% | 15.84% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
48 Neutral | $2.42B | -17.68 | 405.63% | ― | -4.42% | 44.67% | |
48 Neutral | $1.69B | -5.75 | -26.06% | ― | 49.37% | -171.65% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
BKD
Brookdale Senior Living
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1.40
16.06%
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-2.80%
PNTG
Pennant Group
39.73
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65.61%
PACS
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43.30
30.90
249.19%
Brookdale Senior Living Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Brookdale Senior Living Reports Rising Third-Quarter Occupancy
Positive
Oct 8, 2026
Brookdale Senior Living Inc., a major U.S. operator of senior living communities, reported continued improvement in its portfolio occupancy for the third quarter of 2026, highlighting gains across both consolidated and same-community operations. T...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Brookdale Senior Living Reports Strong Q2 2026 Results
Positive
Aug 10, 2026
Brookdale Senior Living reported strong financial and operating results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, reversing a prior-year loss and highlighting improving fundamentals in its senior housing portfolio. Second-quarter consolidated RevPAR ro...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Brookdale Senior Living Reports Continued Occupancy Improvement
Positive
Jul 9, 2026
Brookdale Senior Living Inc., a major U.S. operator of senior living communities, runs 541 communities in 41 states and can serve about 46,000 residents, with a portfolio spanning independent living, assisted living, memory care, and continuing ca...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.