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Astrana Health
(NASDAQ:ASTH)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$42.00
▲(9.98% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
The score is primarily supported by improving cash generation and a constructive earnings outlook (raised adjusted EBITDA guidance alongside deleveraging), but is held back by materially compressed profitability in the financial statements and weak near-term technical momentum (price below key moving averages with bearish MACD and oversold RSI/Stoch). Valuation is also a constraint given the elevated P/E and lack of dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue and EBITDA growth
Rapid growth indicates expanding demand for Astrana’s value-based care platform and improving operating scale. Sustained adoption across payer and provider contracts can support durable revenue expansion and strengthen competitive positioning.
Negative Factors
Material margin compression
The sharp reduction in gross and net margins indicates that rapid revenue growth has not translated proportionally into durable profits. Persistent cost pressure or unfavorable business mix could limit earnings resilience and reduce the benefits of scale.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue and EBITDA growth
Rapid growth indicates expanding demand for Astrana’s value-based care platform and improving operating scale. Sustained adoption across payer and provider contracts can support durable revenue expansion and strengthen competitive positioning.
Read all positive factors
Astrana Health (ASTH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.02B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)694.19K
Price to Earnings (P/E)48.0
Beta (1Y)1.06
Revenue Growth58.91%
EPS Growth58.36%
CountryUS
Employees3,000
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.83
Shares Outstanding49,604,366
10 Day Avg. Volume571,928
30 Day Avg. Volume694,191
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.09
Price to Book (P/B)1.56
Price to Sales (P/S)0.38
P/FCF Ratio11.65
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$52.83Price Target Upside38.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)1.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.98B
Astrana Health Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Astrana Health, Inc., which rebranded from Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc. in February 2024, is a healthcare management firm based in Alhambra, California, founded in 1985. This company delivers medical services throughout the United States, operati...
How the Company Makes Money
Astrana Health makes money primarily by supporting and participating in value-based care and managed-care arrangements through a platform that delivers care-management and administrative services to provider networks.
Key revenue mechanics typica...
Astrana Health Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: substantial year-over-year top-line and profitability growth, improved operating leverage from AI-driven automation, meaningful cash generation and accelerated de-leveraging, successful integration of Prospect with expected synergies, and raised EBITDA guidance. Offsetting these positives are ongoing Medicaid membership attrition and program-specific headwinds in California, slightly elevated commercial cost trends, a minor one-time $15 million ACO REACH revenue reduction, and some uncertainty around exchange and Medicaid dynamics. On balance, the positive execution, scale gains, and trajectory of the AI-native operating system materially outweigh the near-term challenges and conservatively guided risks.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line and Profitability Growth
Revenue of $973 million in Q2 2026, up 49% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA of $69 million, up 43% year-over-year; adjusted diluted EPS of $0.80, a record high, up 45% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Medicaid Membership Attrition and Headwinds
Year-over-year membership changes driven primarily by Medicaid-related attrition; California Medi-Cal attrition tracking toward the high end of prior expectations (low-to-mid teens), prompting strategic rebalancing from professional risk to full risk in parts of Medi-Cal.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line and Profitability Growth
Revenue of $973 million in Q2 2026, up 49% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA of $69 million, up 43% year-over-year; adjusted diluted EPS of $0.80, a record high, up 45% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Astrana reaffirmed full‑year revenue guidance of $3.8–$4.1 billion, raised full‑year adjusted EBITDA to $255–$280 million, and reaffirmed free cash flow guidance of $105–$132.5 million, while guiding Q3 revenue of $1.00–$1.03 billion and Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $72.5–$77.5 million and expecting G&A to exit the year at roughly 6% of revenue. Management said it will reinvest mid‑ to high‑single‑digit millions of dollars of current outperformance into growth initiatives (new payer/provider contracts and tuck‑ins), continue to capture Prospect synergies at the high end of a $12–$15 million target, and is assuming zero HQAF contribution and conservative Medicaid membership trends. They reported H1 free cash flow of $93 million (≈69% conversion of adjusted EBITDA), retired $92 million of debt in the quarter, ended with $401 million cash and $579 million net debt, and show pro forma net leverage of 2.26x, noting a one‑time $15 million ACO REACH revenue adjustment that was immaterial to EBITDA.Astrana Health Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.84B | 3.18B | 2.03B | 1.39B | 1.14B | 773.91M |
| Gross Profit | 354.53M | 295.78M | 271.39M | 214.96M | 199.48M | 177.77M |
| EBITDA | 174.91M | 135.28M | 141.84M | 123.69M | 112.08M | 100.66M |
| Net Income | 40.55M | 22.49M | 43.15M | 60.72M | 45.17M | 68.92M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.28B | 2.22B | 1.35B | 933.36M | 966.21M | 867.36M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 400.79M | 429.47M | 290.83M | 296.31M | 293.59M | 286.51M |
| Total Debt | 979.41M | 1.08B | 471.84M | 321.01M | 229.36M | 200.98M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.68B | 1.66B | 840.73M | 522.59M | 407.67M | 356.72M |
| Stockholders Equity | 830.22M | 779.29M | 712.72M | 614.22M | 542.56M | 448.17M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 158.44M | 104.49M | 44.17M | 39.70M | 59.19M | 51.11M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 175.93M | 114.60M | 52.20M | 68.23M | 82.13M | 70.33M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -547.44M | -539.00M | -192.40M | -65.52M | -7.11M | 16.54M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 486.16M | 569.35M | 135.15M | 3.42M | -20.09M | -47.75M |
Astrana Health Risk Analysis
Astrana Health disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Astrana Health reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Astrana Health Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $1.48B | 12.48 | 24.12% | ― | 5.22% | 1109.87% | |
71 Outperform | $2.16B | 12.48 | 19.89% | ― | 0.51% | 63.71% | |
70 Outperform | $2.69B | 9.56 | 150.20% | ― | 19.52% | 1337.90% | |
65 Neutral | $1.21B | 461.65 | -1.27% | 2.44% | 11.32% | -92.59% | |
63 Neutral | $2.02B | 48.03 | 5.09% | ― | 58.91% | 58.36% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
ASTH
Astrana Health
39.75
9.81
32.77%
HCSG
Healthcare Services
21.59
6.28
41.02%
MD
Pediatrix Medical Group
26.34
10.34
64.63%
USPH
US Physical Therapy
78.48
-3.72
-4.52%
AVAH
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings
12.69
5.65
80.26%
Astrana Health Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Astrana Health Lifts 2026 Outlook After Strong Q2
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
Astrana Health reported strong second-quarter 2026 results on August 6, 2026, with total revenue rising 49% year over year to $972.5 million and net income attributable to the company more than doubling to $19.7 million, while adjusted EBITDA clim...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Astrana Health Reports Strong Medicare ACO Shared Savings Performance
Positive
Jul 13, 2026
On July 13, 2026, Astrana Health reported that its eight affiliated accountable care organizations produced $120.4 million in gross shared savings in the 2024 performance year, with all of them achieving net shared savings while serving nearly 100...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Astrana Health announces planned accounting leadership transition
Neutral
Jul 1, 2026
Astrana Health said Chief Accounting Officer and principal accounting officer Glenn Sobotka agreed on June 25, 2026, to retire from his roles effective August 7, 2026, noting the move is not due to any disagreement over the company’s operati...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Astrana Health Shareholders Expand Equity Plan, Back Leadership
Positive
Jun 10, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 10, 2026, Astrana Health shareholders approved an amended and restated 2024 Equity Incentive Plan, increasing the pool of shares available for awards by 1,000,000 and extending the plan’...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.