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MediaAlpha
(NYSE:MAX)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▲(20.62% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/30/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals with strong free cash flow, but held back by a leveraged balance sheet that increases financial risk. Technicals are supportive with strong momentum (though somewhat overbought), valuation looks attractive on a low P/E, and the latest earnings call was notably upbeat with strong growth and free-cash-flow guidance.
Positive Factors
Broad-based growth and diversification
Strong growth is expanding beyond the historical auto base, with home, renters, and agent channels adding meaningful scale. Broader carrier demand and customer mix reduce reliance on one vertical and support a more durable platform for revenue growth over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Stretched leverage and weak equity history
A highly levered capital structure leaves less financial flexibility and makes results more sensitive to operating volatility. The history of negative or very small equity increases balance-sheet risk, potentially constraining investment, debt reduction, and the company’s ability to absorb weaker earnings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Broad-based growth and diversification
Strong growth is expanding beyond the historical auto base, with home, renters, and agent channels adding meaningful scale. Broader carrier demand and customer mix reduce reliance on one vertical and support a more durable platform for revenue growth over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
MediaAlpha (MAX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$873.08M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)958.36K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.4
Beta (1Y)0.87
Revenue Growth15.22%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees147
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.98
Shares Outstanding50,903,805
10 Day Avg. Volume823,366
30 Day Avg. Volume958,355
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.58
Price to Book (P/B)175.09
Price to Sales (P/S)0.65
P/FCF Ratio11.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.83
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.56
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.78
Enterprise Value/Ebitda33.81
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.50Price Target Upside28.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)1.41
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.31B
MediaAlpha Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MediaAlpha, Inc. (MAX) runs a dedicated platform in the United States designed to enhance customer acquisition within the insurance sector. It specializes in streamlining the process of attracting new clients across various insurance segments, inc...
How the Company Makes Money
MediaAlpha makes money primarily by facilitating performance-based transactions between demand-side insurance advertisers (typically insurance carriers and their distribution partners) and supply-side marketing partners (publishers, comparison sit...
MediaAlpha Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive. Management reported record third-quarter results, broadening carrier demand, rapid growth in home and renters and agent revenue, strong operating leverage, substantial share repurchases, and maintained free cash flow and double-digit growth expectations. The main negative items were the expected Under-65 Health contribution decline, normal fourth-quarter seasonality, lower shopping activity versus its earlier peak, and the fact that AI-agent shopping has not yet produced marketplace impact.Positive Updates
Best Quarter in Company History
Management described the third quarter as the best quarter in MediaAlpha's history across all key metrics. Revenue was $376 million, up 23% year over year; contribution was $57 million, up 26%; and adjusted EBITDA was $39 million, up 36%.
Negative Updates
Under-65 Health Contribution Decline
Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA guidance includes a decline in contribution from Under-65 Health of approximately $900,000 year over year. Health is expected to represent approximately 4% of total fourth-quarter revenue.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Best Quarter in Company History
Management described the third quarter as the best quarter in MediaAlpha's history across all key metrics. Revenue was $376 million, up 23% year over year; contribution was $57 million, up 26%; and adjusted EBITDA was $39 million, up 36%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For the fourth quarter, the company expects revenue of $355 million to $375 million, up approximately 25% year over year at the midpoint; contribution of $54 million to $57 million, up approximately 18% year over year at the midpoint; and adjusted EBITDA of $36 million to $39 million, up approximately 22% year over year at the midpoint. The Health vertical is expected to be approximately 4% of total revenue, and adjusted EBITDA guidance includes a decline in contribution from 65 Health of approximately $900 thousand year-over-year; excluding under-65 health, contribution is expected to increase 21% and adjusted EBITDA to increase by 26% year over year at the midpoint. For the full year 2026, the company continues to expect $90 million to $100 million in free cash flow, while for 2027 and beyond it expects double digit growth across all of the metrics; cash taxes are expected to be approximately 1% in 2026, in the mid single digits in 2027, and in the mid teens thereafter.MediaAlpha Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.29B | 1.11B | 864.70M | 388.15M | 459.07M | 645.27M |
| Gross Profit | 192.01M | 164.56M | 143.57M | 66.71M | 70.06M | 101.52M |
| EBITDA | 21.48M | -96.57M | 60.50M | -28.35M | 45.85M | 1.66M |
| Net Income | 108.06M | 25.62M | 16.63M | -40.42M | -57.67M | -5.28M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 372.23M | 383.83M | 262.45M | 153.93M | 170.08M | 289.80M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 18.68M | 46.88M | 43.27M | 17.27M | 14.54M | 50.56M |
| Total Debt | 174.92M | 155.20M | 162.44M | 174.30M | 186.29M | 190.78M |
| Total Liabilities | 352.47M | 413.02M | 308.68M | 248.35M | 256.17M | 351.37M |
| Stockholders Equity | 51.33M | 4.16M | 2.38M | -10.29M | -15.99M | -4.34M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 54.20M | 65.26M | 45.62M | 20.16M | 28.18M | 27.97M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 55.19M | 65.60M | 45.87M | 20.23M | 28.27M | 28.62M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -984.00K | -340.00K | -654.00K | -73.00K | -49.77M | -650.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | -107.87M | -61.65M | -19.22M | -17.43M | -14.52M | -961.00K |
MediaAlpha Technical Analysis
Positive
12.85
Price Trends
11.28
Positive
11.93
Positive
10.63
Positive
Market Momentum
0.70
Negative
75.99
Negative
75.18
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.36, above the 50-day MA of 11.28, and above the 200-day MA of 10.63, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.99 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MAX.
MediaAlpha Risk Analysis
MediaAlpha disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MediaAlpha reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MediaAlpha Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $828.49M | 7.39 | 50.29% | 1.11% | 22.75% | 144.55% | |
78 Outperform | $714.66M | 12.29 | 18.07% | ― | 11.51% | 42.17% | |
72 Outperform | $2.87B | 17.21 | 56.25% | ― | 6.01% | 47.62% | |
69 Neutral | $873.08M | 7.45 | 503.71% | ― | 15.22% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
52 Neutral | $242.93M | -1.10 | -25.18% | ― | -8.83% | -554.39% | |
45 Neutral | $23.67M | -2.01 | -29.62% | ― | 6.32% | 31.20% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
MAX
MediaAlpha
14.75
2.00
15.69%
ANGI
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5.99
-7.28
-54.86%
CARG
CarGurus
32.18
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EVER
EverQuote
23.51
1.97
9.15%
MNY
MoneyHero Limited
0.54
-0.77
-58.78%
NRDS
NerdWallet, Inc. Class A
11.18
-0.49
-4.20%
MediaAlpha Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
MediaAlpha Reduces TRA Liabilities With New Agreement
Positive
Sep 9, 2026
On September 9, 2026, MediaAlpha entered into an Assignment, Assumption and Termination Agreement to purchase Parallaxes Mars entities’ interest in its Tax Receivables Agreement for $12.0 million in cash, representing a 47% discount to the e...
Executive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
MediaAlpha Names New CFO Amid Upgraded Q3 Outlook
Positive
Sep 3, 2026
On September 2, 2026, MediaAlpha’s board approved the appointment of Senior Vice President of Finance and former longtime finance executive Tigran Sinanyan as chief financial officer and treasurer, effective October 1, 2026, under a new empl...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.