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El Pollo LoCo (LOCO)
NASDAQ:LOCO
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El Pollo LoCo
(NASDAQ:LOCO)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$11.50
▲(5.50%Upside)
Positive Factors
Earnings
El Pollo Loco reported 4Q24 operating results that were better than expectations, with stronger-than-expected restaurant level margins and sales results.
Innovation
CEO Liz Williams characterized FY25 as a year of tremendous culinary innovation, focusing on brand repositioning around food that is craveable, affordable, and better for you.
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
Management characterized 1Q25 results as 'underwhelming' vs. internal plan.
Market Competition
Risks include geographic concentration in L.A., a limited history of growth outside California, high exposure to chicken costs, ongoing pressure from wage inflation, and an intense competitive environment.
Operational Costs
Restaurant level margins came in 100bps lower than consensus expectations due to higher occupancy and other expenses.
El Pollo LoCo (LOCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$321.56M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)280.55K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.7
Beta (1Y)1.11
Revenue Growth1.22%
EPS Growth6.59%
CountryUS
Employees4,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength73
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.19
Shares Outstanding30,052,185
10 Day Avg. Volume332,934
30 Day Avg. Volume280,551
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)0.99
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio12.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.65
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.28
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.62
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.33
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.50Price Target Upside33.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
El Pollo LoCo Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiary, El Pollo Loco, Inc., develops, franchises, licenses, and operates quick-service restaurants under the El Pollo Loco name. As of May 04, 2022, the company operated 480 restaurants comprising 189 company-operated and 291 franchised restaurants located in California, Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Utah, and Louisiana. It also licenses one restaurant in the Philippines. The company was formerly known as Chicken Acquisition Corp. and changed its name to El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. in April 2014. El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Costa Mesa, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyEl Pollo Loco generates revenue primarily through the sale of food and beverages in its company-operated and franchised restaurant locations. The company earns money from company-operated restaurants by selling its menu items directly to customers. In addition, El Pollo Loco collects franchise royalties and fees from its franchised locations, which contribute to its overall revenue streams. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and marketing initiatives that enhance brand visibility and expand its customer base.
El Pollo LoCo Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 15.59%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook. Positive developments such as revenue growth, successful menu innovation, and new restaurant openings were offset by challenges like decreased comparable store sales and increased labor costs. Despite the company's efforts to drive growth through innovation and expansion, economic pressures and operational challenges pose significant hurdles.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Total revenue for Q1 2025 was $119.2 million, compared to $116.2 million in Q1 2024, marking a 2.6% increase.
Menu Innovation Success
The launch of Mango Habanero fire-grilled chicken drove trial among new guests and showcased the potential for flavor and menu innovation.
Franchise Revenue Increase
Franchise revenue increased 16.2% to $13.2 million during the first quarter.
New Restaurant Openings
Two new restaurants were opened in Q1, with plans for at least 10 openings in 2025 and further acceleration in 2026.
Successful Distribution Transition
Seamless transition to a new distribution partner, PFG, supporting improved business models and future growth.
Negative Updates
Decreased Comparable Store Sales
System-wide comparable store sales decreased 1.2% in Q1, with company-operated restaurants down 0.1% and franchise restaurants down 1.8%.
Labor Cost Increase
Labor-related expenses increased 120 basis points year-over-year to 32.7% of company restaurant sales, with wage inflation at 12% in Q1.
Restaurant Contribution Margin Decline
Restaurant contribution margin decreased to 16% from 17.6% in the previous year due to labor cost increases and other operational expenses.
Consumer Pullback
A noticeable decline in consumer spending, attributed to economic uncertainty and macroeconomic pressures, particularly affecting the Hispanic consumer.
Company Guidance
During the El Pollo Loco First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, guidance for the fiscal year 2025 was provided, highlighting several key metrics and strategic initiatives. The company expects full-year restaurant contribution margins to range between 17.25% and 17.75%, despite a lower-than-expected first quarter margin of 16%. They plan to open 10 to 11 new system-wide restaurants, with the majority being franchise locations, and remodel 60 to 70 restaurants. Capital expenditures are anticipated to be between $30 million and $34 million, while general and administrative expenses are projected to be in the range of $48 million to $51 million. The effective income tax rate is expected to be between 29% and 29.5%. Menu innovation, including the launch of Mango Habanero chicken and upcoming products like fresco wraps and quesadillas, is central to their growth strategy. They are responding to headwinds such as consumer pullback and weather impacts, with plans to enhance operational efficiencies and address service quality issues. The company remains optimistic about long-term growth, driven by brand relaunch initiatives and menu innovations.El Pollo LoCo Financial Statement Overview
Summary
El Pollo LoCo demonstrates solid financial health with consistent revenue growth and robust cash flow generation. However, increased debt and declining free cash flow growth pose risks that need monitoring.Income Statement
El Pollo LoCo has shown consistent revenue growth over recent periods, with a slight increase in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue compared to the previous year. The company maintains healthy gross and EBIT margins, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin has slightly decreased, suggesting potential increases in operating expenses or interest costs.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a stable equity base with a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio. Stockholders' equity has been consistent, and the equity ratio indicates a balanced approach to leveraging assets. However, the total debt has increased in TTM, which might pose a risk if not managed well.70
Positive
Cash Flow
El Pollo LoCo's cash flow analysis shows a drop in free cash flow growth in the TTM period, reflecting higher capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains strong, suggesting effective cash generation relative to profits. However, the decline in free cash flow could impact future liquidity if the trend continues.68
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 476.03M | 473.01M | 468.66M | 469.96M | 454.36M | 426.09M | Gross Profit |
| 94.27M | 87.80M | 93.37M | 83.70M | 99.27M | 93.67M | EBIT |
| 40.59M | 41.17M | 39.79M | 30.12M | 41.34M | 48.20M | EBITDA |
| 56.23M | 56.91M | 55.09M | 44.51M | 59.92M | 56.24M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 25.25M | 25.68M | 25.55M | 20.80M | 29.12M | 24.47M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 4.32M | 2.48M | 7.29M | 20.49M | 30.05M | 13.22M | Total Assets |
| 590.45M | 592.01M | 592.30M | 597.22M | 613.79M | 605.22M | Total Debt |
| 261.54M | 263.02M | 273.33M | 252.88M | 233.47M | 263.13M | Net Debt |
| 257.22M | 260.54M | 266.04M | 232.39M | 203.42M | 249.91M | Total Liabilities |
| 324.75M | 331.35M | 341.61M | 316.07M | 303.16M | 327.64M | Stockholders Equity |
| 265.70M | 260.67M | 250.70M | 281.15M | 310.62M | 277.58M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 22.05M | 27.70M | 19.36M | 18.63M | 35.06M | 33.86M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 40.35M | 46.78M | 40.69M | 38.55M | 52.10M | 40.55M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -18.21M | -18.94M | -13.45M | -18.91M | -12.48M | -6.69M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -26.94M | -32.65M | -40.45M | -29.19M | -22.79M | -28.71M |
El Pollo LoCo Technical Analysis
Positive
10.90
Price Trends
9.68
Positive
10.53
Positive
11.67
Negative
Market Momentum
0.31
Negative
70.88
Negative
97.98
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LOCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.68, above the 50-day MA of 9.68, and below the 200-day MA of 11.67, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.88 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.98 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LOCO.
El Pollo LoCo Risk Analysis
El Pollo LoCo disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. El Pollo LoCo reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
El Pollo LoCo Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $13.00B | 30.21 | 33.55% | 1.28% | 15.09% | 31.24% | |
73 Outperform | $5.44B | 441.87 | 2.70% | ― | 14.07% | -47.47% | |
72 Outperform | $321.56M | 12.71 | 9.68% | ― | 1.22% | 6.59% | |
66 Neutral | $2.22B | 12.36 | 90.40% | 8.63% | 2.18% | -5.15% | |
62 Neutral | $6.93B | 11.25 | 2.95% | 3.88% | 2.69% | -24.71% | |
62 Neutral | $1.52B | 19.65 | -20.16% | 3.97% | -2.77% | 4.01% | |
50 Neutral | $365.51M | ― | 4.15% | 9.09% | -6.02% | -136.86% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
LOCO
El Pollo LoCo
10.90
0.54
5.21%
JACK
Jack In The Box
19.45
-35.37
-64.52%
PZZA
Papa John's International
47.51
2.51
5.58%
TXRH
Texas Roadhouse
191.68
26.73
16.20%
WEN
Wendy's
11.68
-4.06
-25.79%
SHAK
Shake Shack
128.36
36.18
39.25%
El Pollo LoCo Corporate Events
Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
El Pollo Loco Approves Governance Amendments at Annual Meeting
Neutral
Jun 5, 2025
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. held its Annual Meeting on May 29, 2025, where stockholders approved several significant amendments to the company’s governance structure. These included declassifying the Board of Directors and eliminating supermajority voting requirements, effective June 3, 2025. Additionally, stockholders voted on six proposals, including the election of directors and ratification of the company’s independent accounting firm, BDO USA, P.C. The approval of these amendments marks a shift towards more streamlined governance, potentially impacting the company’s decision-making processes and stakeholder engagement.
The most recent analyst rating on (LOCO) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on El Pollo LoCo stock, see the LOCO Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.