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Jack In The Box (JACK) AI Stock Analysis
Jack In The Box
(NASDAQ:JACK)
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance and balance-sheet risk (negative equity, high leverage, and materially reduced cash flow), reinforced by a clear bearish technical trend. Offsetting factors include a low P/E valuation and moderately improving turnaround indicators from the latest earnings call (cost actions, early comp improvement, and incremental deleveraging), with corporate governance/leadership updates providing a smaller additional positive input.
Jack In The Box Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Profit by SegmentAnalyzes profitability across different business segments, highlighting which areas drive earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for improvement.
Jack’s core-segment profitability has been sliding since 2022 with softer quarterly peaks and pronounced Q3 erosion, driven by sales weakness and margin squeeze; Del Taco was a modest, somewhat volatile contributor but its December 2025 sale removes that earnings tail. The divestiture is credit-positive—proceeds were used for immediate debt paydown and lessen near-term refinancing pressure—but it also concentrates performance risk on the Jack brand. Recovery now hinges on same-store sales momentum, commodity/labor cost moderation, and execution of real‑estate and operational initiatives.
The FlyJack In The Box (JACK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $275.61M
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 609.78K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 8.3
- Beta (1Y)
- 1.80
- Revenue Growth
- -20.21%
- EPS Growth
- ―
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 5,046
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Sector Strength
- 61
- Industry
- Restaurants
Jack In The Box Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Jack in the Box Inc. is engaged in the operation and franchising of its namesake quick-service dining establishments. By November 23, 2021, the company's network encompassed approximately 2,200 Jack in the Box fast-food outlets situated across 21 U.S...
How the Company Makes Money
Jack in the Box generates revenue primarily through a franchised restaurant model and, where applicable, sales from company-operated restaurants. Key revenue streams include: (1) Franchise royalties: ongoing royalties paid by franchisees, typically c...
Jack In The Box Earnings Call Summary
The call presented a mix of proactive operational and financial actions (refinancing and debt reduction, adjusted EBITDA growth, product tests, early Q4 comp improvement and a refresh program) alongside persistent challenges (several quarters of same-store sales declines, margin pressures from commodity inflation and digital fees, franchisee profitability stress, and elevated leverage). Management emphasized a clear 5-point turnaround plan and early signs of stabilization, but the near-term financials and franchisee headwinds remain material.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
On the call management updated FY2026 guidance and JACK on Track progress: they now expect ~2,100 restaurants, restaurant-level margin of ~16.5% (assuming mid‑single‑digit commodity inflation and low‑single‑digit wage inflation), franchise‑level margin of about $265M, SG&A of $112M–$115M (ex‑COLI), and adjusted EBITDA of $225M–$230M; capital expenditures were $44.1M YTD through Q3 and interest expense for the year is expected to be roughly $81M. They reported total debt of $1.5B, net debt/adjusted EBITDA leverage of 6.3x (down from 6.9x), $244M of debt reduction since JACK on Track launched, $26.7M of real‑estate sale proceeds YTD (≈$1M in Q4 to date), and 40 restaurant closures YTD with an additional 10–20 expected in Q4 (closure cadence likely to continue into 2027); management noted each franchise closure impacts franchise‑level margin by about $80k.
Jack In The Box Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Overall financial profile is weak due to high financial risk: negative equity across periods and very high debt relative to assets, alongside sharply weaker cash generation versus 2021–2023. While TTM profitability improved (positive net margin) and operating/FCF remain positive, revenue contraction and the durability of the rebound remain uncertain.
Income Statement
44NeutralBalance Sheet
18Very NegativeCash Flow
36Negative| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.19B | 1.47B | 1.57B | 1.69B | 1.47B | 1.14B |
| Gross Profit | 334.24M | 419.92M | 462.98M | 508.14M | 433.31M | 411.60M |
| EBITDA | 204.79M | 36.19M | 137.59M | 336.25M | 304.07M | 335.56M |
| Net Income | 33.70M | -80.72M | -36.70M | 130.83M | 115.78M | 165.75M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.90B | 2.59B | 2.74B | 3.00B | 2.92B | 1.75B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 46.32M | 51.53M | 24.75M | 157.65M | 108.89M | 55.35M |
| Total Debt | 2.48B | 3.12B | 3.18B | 3.16B | 3.17B | 2.23B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.80B | 3.53B | 3.59B | 3.72B | 3.66B | 2.57B |
| Stockholders Equity | -901.29M | -938.27M | -851.80M | -718.33M | -736.19M | -817.88M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 12.21M | 74.14M | -46.66M | 140.05M | 116.41M | 160.11M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 74.24M | 162.36M | 68.82M | 215.01M | 162.88M | 201.12M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 174.98M | -74.69M | -69.37M | 42.22M | -578.59M | -20.93M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -245.55M | -60.03M | -131.19M | -207.36M | 478.18M | -343.55M |
Jack In The Box Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JACK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.37 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.29, above the 50-day MA of 13.41, and below the 200-day MA of 14.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.27 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JACK.
Jack In The Box Risk Analysis
Jack In The Box disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Jack In The Box reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksJack In The Box Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
MCD75Outperform
EAT74Outperform
LOCO68Neutral
GTIM65Neutral- JACK47Neutral
WEN45Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | 75Outperform | $186.14B | 22.69 | -561.20% | 2.66% | 6.30% | 5.37% |
| EAT | 74Outperform | $8.62B | 18.97 | 122.98% | ― | 6.07% | 16.71% |
| LOCO | 68Neutral | $473.23M | 13.96 | 11.68% | ― | 4.40% | 39.48% |
| GTIM | 65Neutral | $13.73M | 6.21 | 6.62% | ― | -5.81% | 78.41% |
| Sector * | 61Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
| JACK | 47Neutral | $254.51M | 8.26 | -3.65% | ― | -20.21% | ― |
| WEN | 45Neutral | $1.39B | 11.59 | 109.00% | 6.41% | -0.98% | -31.26% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JACK | Jack In The Box | 14.37 | -1.56 | -9.79% | |
| EAT | Brinker International | 220.44 | 118.15 | 115.50% | |
| GTIM | Good Times Restaurants | 1.31 | 0.01 | 0.77% | |
| MCD | McDonald's Corporation | 280.22 | -10.71 | -3.68% | |
| WEN | Wendy's Company | 7.65 | -0.65 | -7.82% | |
| LOCO | El Pollo LoCo Holdings | 16.47 | 6.12 | 59.13% |
Jack In The Box Corporate Events
Jack in the Box Extends Investor Pact, Adds Director
PositiveOn September 17, 2026, Jack in the Box Inc. amended its nomination and cooperation agreement with GreenWood Investors, extending the pact through the 2028 annual meeting window and maintaining standstill and voting provisions. The company also commit...
Jack in the Box Names New President, CEO Successor
PositiveOn August 18, 2026, Jack in the Box’s board appointed Taylor Montgomery as President, effective September 14, 2026, in a newly created role overseeing brand strategy, sustainable sales growth and franchisee profitability. The move forms a centr...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Sep 22, 2026