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Lincoln Edu
(NASDAQ:LINC)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$22.00
▼(-14.10% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/22/26
LINC’s score reflects improving operating and cash-flow fundamentals and a generally positive, guidance-reiterating earnings call, tempered by rising leverage and margin compression. The biggest drag is technical weakness (price below key moving averages with negative MACD), while valuation appears only average given the ~28.7 P/E and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Sustained revenue growth
Sustained double-digit revenue growth indicates expanding demand for Lincoln’s career-training programs and stronger student volume. If maintained, this scale can improve campus utilization, support investment in new offerings, and provide a durable base for earnings growth over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Gross-margin compression
Sharp gross-margin compression suggests that recent revenue growth is not fully translating into durable profitability. If cost, pricing, or program-mix pressure persists, Lincoln may have less capacity to absorb expansion costs and could see earnings growth lag its top-line progress.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained revenue growth
Sustained double-digit revenue growth indicates expanding demand for Lincoln’s career-training programs and stronger student volume. If maintained, this scale can improve campus utilization, support investment in new offerings, and provide a durable base for earnings growth over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Lincoln Edu (LINC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$686.77M
Dividend Yield6.19%
Average Volume (3M)657.67K
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.7
Beta (1Y)0.86
Revenue Growth22.02%
EPS Growth57.98%
CountryUS
Employees2,390
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryEducation & Training Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.74
Shares Outstanding31,721,480
10 Day Avg. Volume515,684
30 Day Avg. Volume657,666
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.36
Price to Book (P/B)3.74
Price to Sales (P/S)1.44
P/FCF Ratio-27.23
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.55
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.07
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.13
Enterprise Value/Ebitda28.89
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$49.40Price Target Upside92.89% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.78
Revenue Forecast (FY)$594.65M
Lincoln Edu Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lincoln Educational Services Corporation, along with its affiliated entities, specializes in providing vocational and technical post-secondary education to both recent high school graduates and working adults throughout the United States. The comp...
How the Company Makes Money
Lincoln Edu primarily makes money by charging tuition and related student fees for its career-training programs delivered through its campus-based and other instructional formats. Revenue is largely driven by student enrollments, program mix (e.g....
Lincoln Edu Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive operational and financial trajectory: strong top-line growth (+22.4% revenue), robust adjusted EBITDA expansion (+42.4%), improved student population (+10%) and retention (≈150 bps improvement), stronger cash flow and ample liquidity, plus high-return campus expansion plans and employer demand. Offsetting these positives were a notable near-term operational challenge (student start growth slowed to 1% in Q2) driven by enrollment-to-start conversion, financial-aid/loan-default-related ineligibility for some students, AI-related lead-generation disruption, higher preopening losses and increased capex guidance. Management reiterated full-year guidance and expressed confidence in a recovery of start trends in Q3 (including an unusually large August start) which, combined with the strong financial results, leads to an overall favorable outlook despite short-term execution and market-discovery headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Revenue increased 22.4% year-over-year to $142.0 million in Q2 2026, marking more than three consecutive years of sustained double-digit quarterly revenue growth and supporting reiterated full-year revenue guidance of $590M–$600M.
Negative Updates
Soft Student Start Growth in Q2
Student starts grew only 1% in Q2 2026 (versus ~9% enrollment growth), driven by a lower enrollment-to-start conversion and resulting in higher cost per start for the quarter.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Revenue increased 22.4% year-over-year to $142.0 million in Q2 2026, marking more than three consecutive years of sustained double-digit quarterly revenue growth and supporting reiterated full-year revenue guidance of $590M–$600M.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated full‑year 2026 guidance: revenue $590–$600M; adjusted EBITDA $76–$80M (now including ≈$10M of new‑campus pre‑opening losses); net income $23–$26M; diluted EPS $0.74–$0.83; and student start growth of 10–14%. They raised 2026 capital expenditures to $95–$100M (from ~$70–$75M), reflecting the $18.8M Melrose Park purchase (funded with a $15M mortgage) and the Suitland focused campus (~$10M capex) — Suitland targets >30% IRR, >$15M revenue and ≈$5M adjusted EBITDA at full ramp (≈$5M EBITDA within 3 years). Q2 results supporting the outlook: revenue $142M (+22.4% Y/Y), adjusted EBITDA $12.7M (+42.4%), net income $1.9M (EPS $0.06), ending student population +~1.8k (+10% Y/Y); liquidity totaled $143.2M ($44.2M cash, $99M revolver availability, $26M drawn).Lincoln Edu Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
71
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 570.78M | 518.24M | 440.06M | 378.07M | 348.29M | 335.34M |
| Gross Profit | 341.56M | 312.85M | 258.31M | 215.79M | 199.54M | 196.41M |
| EBITDA | 60.63M | 50.34M | 28.61M | 42.58M | 22.96M | 7.22M |
| Net Income | 22.80M | 20.00M | 9.89M | 26.00M | 12.63M | 34.72M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 529.78M | 493.16M | 436.56M | 345.25M | 291.57M | 295.30M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 44.18M | 28.52M | 59.27M | 75.99M | 60.83M | 83.31M |
| Total Debt | 228.10M | 203.86M | 177.56M | 116.79M | 100.63M | 97.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 327.39M | 293.48M | 258.29M | 178.44M | 146.69M | 153.90M |
| Stockholders Equity | 202.39M | 199.69M | 178.26M | 166.80M | 144.88M | 141.40M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 24.53M | -27.44M | -27.56M | -15.14M | -8.10M | 19.92M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 94.02M | 59.19M | 29.31M | 25.56M | 882.00K | 27.45M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -69.53M | -86.20M | -46.97M | 7.37M | -21.35M | 37.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.99M | -3.75M | -3.33M | -2.94M | -12.55M | -20.01M |
Lincoln Edu Technical Analysis
Negative
25.61
Price Trends
24.33
Negative
35.07
Negative
36.01
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.95
Negative
37.58
Neutral
14.64
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LINC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 25.61 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.39, above the 50-day MA of 24.33, and below the 200-day MA of 36.01, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.95 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.64 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LINC.
Lincoln Edu Risk Analysis
Lincoln Edu disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lincoln Edu reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Lincoln Edu Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $1.77B | 12.93 | 8.19% | 3.02% | 3.53% | 23.97% | |
79 Outperform | $2.09B | 11.75 | 17.70% | 1.89% | 11.68% | 18.98% | |
71 Outperform | $888.72M | 19.04 | 15.30% | ― | 3.64% | 129.52% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
59 Neutral | $686.77M | 28.72 | 11.59% | 6.19% | 22.02% | 57.98% | |
54 Neutral | $131.59M | 14.07 | 19.04% | 36.32% | 24.76% | 17.67% | |
53 Neutral | $1.13B | 33.13 | 10.17% | 3.36% | 9.15% | -46.11% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
LINC
Lincoln Edu
21.96
-1.24
-5.34%
APEI
American Public Education
48.86
13.07
36.52%
PRDO
Perdoceo Education
33.82
-2.29
-6.35%
STRA
Strategic Education
81.59
0.38
0.46%
UTI
Universal Technical Institute
21.66
-12.29
-36.20%
LGCY
Legacy Education Inc.
10.19
0.34
3.45%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.