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American Public Education
(NASDAQ:APEI)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$51.00
▲(10.85% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/28/26
APEI scores well primarily on improving financial performance (stronger profitability, lower leverage, and solid free cash flow) and a positive earnings update (raised guidance and margin expansion). The score is tempered by a mixed technical backdrop (below key longer-term moving averages with neutral momentum) and only modest recent revenue growth, while valuation looks reasonable at a mid-teens-to-high-teens earnings multiple.
Positive Factors
Profitability and Cash Generation
APEI has restored profitability and generates substantial positive operating and free cash flow after the 2022–2023 downturn. This supports reinvestment, debt reduction, and operational resilience, while stronger margins provide a more durable foundation for growth than revenue expansion alone.
Negative Factors
Modest Revenue Growth and Volatility
APEI’s recent improvement is more margin-led than volume-led, with only modest trailing revenue growth. The prior loss period also shows that earnings can swing materially when conditions weaken, making sustained enrollment growth and disciplined execution important to preserving the recovery.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability and Cash Generation
APEI has restored profitability and generates substantial positive operating and free cash flow after the 2022–2023 downturn. This supports reinvestment, debt reduction, and operational resilience, while stronger margins provide a more durable foundation for growth than revenue expansion alone.
Read all positive factors
American Public Education (APEI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$844.98M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)241.29K
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.4
Beta (1Y)0.35
Revenue Growth3.64%
EPS Growth129.52%
CountryUS
Employees5,841
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryEducation & Training Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.51
Shares Outstanding18,301,542
10 Day Avg. Volume175,600
30 Day Avg. Volume241,290
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.19
Price to Book (P/B)2.31
Price to Sales (P/S)1.05
P/FCF Ratio14.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.41
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.58
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.33
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$62.67Price Target Upside36.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)2.62
Revenue Forecast (FY)$693.75M
American Public Education Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
American Public Education, Inc. (APEI), along with its affiliated entities, delivers higher learning opportunities accessible both online and at physical campuses. The organization operates through three principal divisions: the American Public Un...
How the Company Makes Money
APEI generates revenue primarily from student tuition and fees across its institutions. The largest driver is tuition earned as students enroll in and complete courses in online and hybrid degree/certificate programs (including APUS and its nursin...
American Public Education Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed primarily positive momentum: top-line growth, materially higher adjusted EBITDA and margin expansion, a completed institutional combination unlocking regulatory and strategic benefits, a strong balance sheet and operating cash flow, and upgraded full-year guidance. The principal negatives are manageable near-term issues—active-duty enrollment headwinds tied to geopolitical events, higher cost-per-lead in non-core online segments that management is actively addressing, a timing-related quarter-to-quarter revenue/EBITDA shift, and a leadership change in Health+. Overall, the positive operational and financial progress and the completion of strategic milestones outweigh the challenges noted.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Total revenue rose 5.5% year-over-year to $171.7 million in 2Q26; on a comparable basis excluding $3.4 million of prior-year Graduate School USA revenue, revenue growth was 7.8% YoY.
Negative Updates
Active Duty Enrollment Headwinds
Active duty channels (Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps) have been challenged by deployments related to the Middle East conflict, causing enrollment disruptions and stopouts; management included these headwinds in 2026 guidance and characterizes them as event-driven rather than structural.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Total revenue rose 5.5% year-over-year to $171.7 million in 2Q26; on a comparable basis excluding $3.4 million of prior-year Graduate School USA revenue, revenue growth was 7.8% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised full‑year 2026 guidance to revenue of $690–$698M (prior $686–$696M), adjusted EBITDA of $96–$104M (prior $93–$102M), net income available to common of $46.5–$52.5M (prior $44.9–$51.6M), and diluted EPS of $2.48–$2.79 (prior $2.33–$2.68), while lowering CapEx to $25–$28M (prior $28–$32M); third‑quarter guidance is revenue $164.5–$167M, adjusted EBITDA $14–$17M (including a ~ $4M timing anomaly and marketing optimization costs), net income $3.4–$5.4M, and diluted EPS $0.18–$0.29. Guidance reflects an assumed Military net registration run‑rate of 101k–103k (up 1%–3% y/y), Health enrollment of ~19,100 (up ~3% y/y) with ~7% campus growth, and a monthly‑start timing shift that moves ~ $6M of Military+ revenue and ~ $4M of adjusted EBITDA into Q4; management reiterated its 2029 ambition of $890M–$1B revenue and 20%–21% adjusted EBITDA margins (targeting an 8%–12% revenue CAGR).American Public Education Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 668.01M | 648.86M | 624.56M | 600.54M | 606.33M | 418.80M |
| Gross Profit | 364.81M | 335.69M | 328.86M | 307.68M | 317.86M | 246.18M |
| EBITDA | 83.02M | 64.08M | 52.37M | -25.73M | -101.39M | 47.37M |
| Net Income | 45.67M | 31.56M | 16.11M | -47.29M | -114.99M | 17.75M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 537.75M | 543.43M | 570.10M | 557.39M | 685.25M | 725.61M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 76.26M | 176.50M | 131.93M | 116.66M | 129.46M | 122.63M |
| Total Debt | 147.84M | 162.96M | 200.62M | 204.73M | 208.97M | 257.42M |
| Total Liabilities | 223.69M | 248.65M | 266.22M | 265.41M | 335.52M | 310.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 314.06M | 294.78M | 303.88M | 291.98M | 349.73M | 415.61M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 70.07M | 46.10M | 27.79M | 31.62M | 12.83M | 4.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 85.60M | 61.97M | 48.87M | 45.51M | 29.21M | 16.27M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -93.73M | 4.80M | -21.08M | -13.77M | -13.67M | -336.67M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -21.90M | -49.21M | -13.19M | -16.86M | -35.71M | 242.34M |
American Public Education Technical Analysis
Negative
46.01
Price Trends
45.46
Negative
48.60
Negative
49.71
Negative
Market Momentum
0.47
Positive
37.78
Neutral
5.22
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APEI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 46.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 47.19, above the 50-day MA of 45.46, and below the 200-day MA of 49.71, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.22 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for APEI.
American Public Education Risk Analysis
American Public Education disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American Public Education reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
American Public Education Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $844.98M | 18.39 | 15.30% | ― | 3.64% | 129.52% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $604.09M | -18.73 | -26.91% | ― | 24.86% | 48.69% | |
59 Neutral | $684.55M | 29.16 | 11.59% | 6.19% | 22.02% | 57.98% | |
50 Neutral | $2.29B | 93.60 | -8.24% | ― | 10.03% | -27.61% | |
46 Neutral | $81.59M | -1.51 | -41.94% | ― | -47.59% | 81.39% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
APEI
American Public Education
46.17
12.34
36.48%
LINC
Lincoln Edu
21.72
0.72
3.43%
CHGG
Chegg
0.70
-0.35
-33.62%
GOTU
Gaotu Techedu
2.36
-0.53
-18.34%
DAO
Youdao
18.96
8.06
73.94%
American Public Education Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
American Public Education Strengthens Board and Tech Leadership
Positive
Oct 27, 2026
On October 22, 2026, American Public Education, Inc. appointed former Staples CEO Shira Goodman to its board of directors, effective October 27, 2026, with her term running until the 2027 annual meeting of stockholders. Goodman also joined the boa...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
American Public Education Unifies Institutions Under Single System
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, American Public Education, Inc. consolidated American Public University System, Rasmussen University, and Hondros College of Nursing into a single institution under the American Public University System name. The Higher Learning...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.