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Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS
(NASDAQ:KSPI)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$125.00
▲(14.94% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability, rapid growth, low leverage) and very attractive valuation (low P/E with a meaningful dividend). Technicals remain bullish but are somewhat stretched (overbought signals), while the earnings call supports a constructive outlook with reiterated guidance and expected margin improvement, tempered by near-term funding-cost and regulatory/FX pressures.
Positive Factors
Ecosystem Growth
Strong marketplace expansion and faster-growing merchant services deepen network effects across consumers and sellers. Higher engagement, purchases and monetization can support durable revenue growth as payments, commerce and financial products reinforce one another.
Negative Factors
Margin Compression
Flat earnings despite strong revenue growth show that operating expenses, interest costs, provisions and investment spending are absorbing incremental scale benefits. Persistent cost intensity could limit earnings conversion and reduce the durability of historical profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Ecosystem Growth
Strong marketplace expansion and faster-growing merchant services deepen network effects across consumers and sellers. Higher engagement, purchases and monetization can support durable revenue growth as payments, commerce and financial products reinforce one another.
Read all positive factors
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS (KSPI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.26B
Dividend Yield3.29%
Average Volume (3M)585.50K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.9
Beta (1Y)1.06
Revenue Growth38.98%
EPS Growth-3.58%
CountryUS
Employees14,008
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5475.95
Shares Outstanding190,015,730
10 Day Avg. Volume583,046
30 Day Avg. Volume585,505
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-38.56
Price to Book (P/B)3.02
Price to Sales (P/S)1.91
P/FCF Ratio15.32
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$107.50Price Target Upside-1.15% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)5,836.98
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.30T
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, established in 2008 and based in Almaty, Kazakhstan, operates alongside its subsidiaries to deliver a comprehensive suite of digital services encompassing payments, e-commerce, and financial technology. These offering...
How the Company Makes Money
Kaspi.kz makes money primarily by monetizing transactions and financial products across its ecosystem:
1) Payments and transaction services (payments platform)
- Merchant fees: The company earns fees from merchants for card and QR/digital payment...
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call described broad, sustainable top-line growth (marketplace GMV +15% cc, e-commerce +28% cc, loan portfolio +18%, fintech revenue +23%) and strategic progress (Kasper AI launch, bank acquisition, payment integrations). Offsetting these positives were margin pressures from high funding costs, targeted investments (Hepsiburada, tech/product development), FX and regulatory headwinds, and some moderation in TPV and payments take rate. Management emphasized that rate declines and deposit repricing should materially benefit earnings into next year and that current investments are strategic foundations for future growth. Overall, the positive growth, product launches, and balance-sheet strength outweigh near-term profitability pressures.Positive Updates
Revenue and Dividend Increase
Reported revenue up ~15-16% year-on-year in Q2; adjusted EBITDA up 5% in Q2. Board proposes an 18% increase in the dividend versus the first-year dividend.
Negative Updates
Profitability Pressure from Rates and Investments
Adjusted EBITDA growth (+5% in Q2) lagged revenue growth (~15%) due to elevated funding costs and deliberate investments (Hepsiburada integration, tech/product development). Net income was effectively flat as margin pressures and investments offset top-line gains.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Dividend Increase
Reported revenue up ~15-16% year-on-year in Q2; adjusted EBITDA up 5% in Q2. Board proposes an 18% increase in the dividend versus the first-year dividend.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated full‑year guidance with marketplace GMV guidance around +20% (GMV was +17% through H1), expects TPV growth roughly ~15% for the year (Q2 TPV was +13%), and has shifted to average net loan portfolio guidance of ~15% for the full year (vs ~20% growth in H1); adjusted EBITDA is guided around +15% for the year while EBITDA is currently trending +7% year‑to‑date. Management expects faster trends in H2 versus Q2 driven by promotional timing and product initiatives, notes that moderating inflation would put downward pressure on TPV growth (offset in part by Apple Pay / cross‑border volume), and flagged that a recent cut in a 3‑month deposit product (≈30% of deposits) from 20% to 19% will begin to benefit margins meaningfully toward Q4 and into next year.Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.35T | 3.94T | 2.52T | 1.89T | 1.27T | 885.48B |
| Gross Profit | 3.07T | 2.89T | 1.57T | 1.22T | 1.17T | 812.11B |
| EBITDA | 1.85T | 2.18T | 1.28T | 1.02T | 1.02T | 713.63B |
| Net Income | 1.04T | 1.04T | 1.04T | 841.35B | 585.03B | 431.91B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.06T | 11.08T | 8.38T | 6.82T | 5.12T | 3.61T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.57T | 2.06T | 2.11T | 2.20T | 1.72T | 948.56B |
| Total Debt | 1.21T | 470.58B | 221.46B | 222.16B | 267.06B | 310.46B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.33T | 8.48T | 6.80T | 5.72T | 4.30T | 3.10T |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.64T | 2.49T | 1.52T | 1.08T | 819.16B | 499.73B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 952.97B | 491.10B | 486.17B | 1.06T | 961.52B | 45.45B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.15T | 673.61B | 581.89B | 1.11T | 1.02T | 70.35B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -920.14B | -507.80B | -108.36B | -218.36B | -487.16B | 289.75B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -260.02B | 150.25B | -709.77B | -675.97B | -275.91B | -352.58B |
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Technical Analysis
Positive
108.75
Price Trends
94.40
Positive
89.51
Positive
81.01
Positive
Market Momentum
4.02
Positive
67.93
Neutral
66.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KSPI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 108.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 103.03, above the 50-day MA of 94.40, and above the 200-day MA of 81.01, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 67.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KSPI.
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Risk Analysis
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $17.26B | 8.95 | 41.33% | 3.29% | 38.98% | -3.58% | |
79 Outperform | $19.72B | 40.90 | 23.79% | ― | 23.04% | 111.91% | |
76 Outperform | $4.38B | 22.49 | 37.65% | 1.27% | 57.03% | 38.31% | |
74 Outperform | $49.72B | 145.19 | 1.62% | ― | 5.07% | -87.94% | |
70 Outperform | $11.39B | 34.23 | 36.22% | ― | ― | ― | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
61 Neutral | $2.46B | 3.94 | 29.69% | 20.70% | -29.50% | ― |
* Technology Sector Average
KSPI
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS
107.53
24.30
29.20%
XYZ
Block
82.76
6.94
9.15%
STNE
Stoneco
10.11
-4.15
-29.09%
DLO
DLocal
15.52
2.38
18.12%
TOST
Toast Inc
33.95
-6.80
-16.69%
PAYP
PayPay Corporation
17.04
-1.12
-6.17%
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Corporate Events
Kaspi.kz Posts Strong H1 2026 Revenue Growth as Costs Hold Profit Flat
Aug 12, 2026
On August 12, 2026, Kaspi.kz published unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial information for the six months ended June 30, 2026, showing strong top-line growth but flat profitability compared with the prior year period. Revenue rose t...
Kaspi.kz Posts Strong 2Q 2026 Results, Launches Kasper AI and Expands into Türkiye
Aug 10, 2026
Kaspi.kz JSC, a leading Kazakhstani fintech and e-commerce ecosystem operator listed on Nasdaq, reported continued expansion of its integrated payments, marketplace and lending platforms as of the second quarter and first half of 2026. The company...
Kaspi.kz Shareholders Approve Q1 2026 Dividend and Governance Measures at June EGM
Jun 12, 2026
Kaspi.kz announced that at its extraordinary general meeting of shareholders held on June 11, 2026, investors approved an agenda focused on first-quarter shareholder returns and governance matters. The meeting confirmed the structure of the agenda...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.