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Komatsu
(OTC:KMTUY)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$41.00
▼(-12.24% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:10/31/26
The score is driven by solid underlying financial profitability and a generally sound balance sheet, but is held back by weaker cash conversion/declining free cash flow and a clearly bearish technical setup (price below all major moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation is reasonable and provides some support, but not enough to offset the current momentum and cash-flow concerns.
Positive Factors
Solid Profitability
Komatsu continues to generate healthy industrial-equipment profitability, providing internal resources for research, customer support, and capital investment. Although margins have moderated from recent highs, the current level still indicates a viable business model with meaningful earnings resilience.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Conversion
Weak conversion of accounting profit into cash reduces the funds available for reinvestment, debt reduction, and shareholder returns. It also suggests that working-capital needs or investment demands are absorbing a substantial portion of earnings, limiting near-term financial flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Solid Profitability
Komatsu continues to generate healthy industrial-equipment profitability, providing internal resources for research, customer support, and capital investment. Although margins have moderated from recent highs, the current level still indicates a viable business model with meaningful earnings resilience.
Read all positive factors
Komatsu (KMTUY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$34.37B
Dividend Yield1.54%
Average Volume (3M)1.22K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.1
Beta (1Y)0.74
Revenue Growth3.65%
EPS Growth-7.50%
CountryUS
Employees67,279
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)442.18
Shares Outstanding930,340,640
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume1,215
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.98
Price to Book (P/B)1.61
Price to Sales (P/S)1.30
P/FCF Ratio22.63
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.50
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.04
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.07
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)2.84
Revenue Forecast (FY)$28.18B
Komatsu Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Komatsu Ltd. manufactures and sells construction, mining, and utility equipment in Japan, the Americas, Europe, China, rest of Asia, Oceania, the Middle East, Africa, and CIS countries. It operates in three segments: Construction, Mining and Utili...
How the Company Makes Money
Komatsu makes money primarily by selling heavy equipment and by monetizing the lifecycle of that equipment through aftermarket support and related services. A major revenue stream is the sale of construction and mining machinery (e.g., excavators,...
Komatsu Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 02, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: solid top-line resilience (record net sales, strong aftermarket and pockets of segment profitability) and clear progress on strategic initiatives (AHS milestone, acquisitions, hydrogen and automation POCs). However, profitability trends were weaker — operating income and net income declined materially in FY25 — and the outlook includes significant headwinds from U.S. tariffs, Middle East-related disruptions, inventory build and softer mining and regional demand, with FY26 guidance showing lower sales, profits and a projected ROE below target. The positives (cash generation, strategic milestones, selective segment strength) are meaningful but are balanced by material near-term cost and demand pressures that depress earnings visibility.Positive Updates
Record Fifth Consecutive Year of Net Sales
Net sales increased 0.7% year-on-year to JPY 4,132.8 billion, marking a record high for the fifth consecutive year.
Negative Updates
Operating Income and Profit Decline
Operating income decreased 13.7% year-on-year to JPY 567.3 billion; operating income ratio fell 2.3 percentage points to 13.7%. Net income attributable to Komatsu declined 14.4% to JPY 376.4 billion.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Fifth Consecutive Year of Net Sales
Net sales increased 0.7% year-on-year to JPY 4,132.8 billion, marking a record high for the fifth consecutive year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided for fiscal 2026 on exchange rates of JPY150/USD, JPY170/EUR and JPY106/AUD and forecast consolidated net sales of JPY 4,118.0 billion (‑0.4% y/y), operating income of JPY 508.0 billion (‑10.5% y/y) and net income of JPY 318.0 billion (‑15.5% y/y), with ROE projected at 9.1%; it plans to keep the dividend at JPY 190/sh (consolidated payout ratio 53.8%) and the Board approved a share repurchase up to JPY 100.0 billion (25 million shares) —bringing total payout including buyback to 85.4%. By segment, C&ME revenue is guided at JPY 3.79 trillion (‑0.4%) with segment profit JPY 440.0 billion (‑10.4%) and a margin of 11.6% (‑1.3 pp); mining equipment sales are set at JPY 1,858.5 billion (‑2.4%) while general construction equipment is JPY 1,919.7 billion (+1.5%). Retail Finance is expected at JPY 127.5 billion (+1.1%) with segment profit JPY 36.0 billion (‑1.6%) and ROA ~2.3%, and Industrial Machinery & Others at JPY 239.0 billion (+0.1%) with profit JPY 37.0 billion (‑2.5%, margin 15.5% ↓0.4 pp). The outlook factors in JPY 67.8 billion of added U.S. tariff costs and JPY 30.0 billion of refunds (net tariff cost ~JPY 37.8 billion), a JPY 90.1 billion assumed sales hit and JPY 18.8 billion cost increase from the Middle East situation, parts sales rising to JPY 1,078.5 billion (+2.2%) with an aftermarket share of ~53%, and higher capex/R&D and fixed costs (wage and R&D increases) to support product and power-source development.Komatsu Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.45T | 4.38T | 4.10T | 3.87T | 3.54T | 2.80T |
| Gross Profit | 1.34T | 1.34T | 1.32T | 1.21T | 1.04T | 779.58B |
| EBITDA | 727.60B | 777.20B | 825.44B | 787.00B | 658.49B | 473.14B |
| Net Income | 397.26B | 399.09B | 439.61B | 393.43B | 326.40B | 224.93B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.57T | 6.45T | 5.77T | 5.64T | 4.88T | 4.35T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 383.68B | 441.61B | 385.57B | 403.18B | 294.46B | 316.67B |
| Total Debt | 1.54T | 1.43T | 1.22T | 1.27T | 1.12T | 1.01T |
| Total Liabilities | 2.88T | 2.73T | 2.43T | 2.44T | 2.20T | 1.99T |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.49T | 3.53T | 3.17T | 3.03T | 2.54T | 2.23T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 229.75B | 250.98B | 311.31B | 231.83B | 22.94B | 138.01B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 471.21B | 476.04B | 517.17B | 434.78B | 206.47B | 300.97B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -225.62B | -211.25B | -210.67B | -204.42B | -169.52B | -143.57B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -217.41B | -221.11B | -321.42B | -122.04B | -66.61B | -93.87B |
Komatsu Technical Analysis
Negative
46.72
Price Trends
45.97
Negative
43.90
Negative
43.19
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.49
Positive
25.89
Positive
3.79
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KMTUY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 46.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.96, above the 50-day MA of 45.97, and above the 200-day MA of 43.19, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.49 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.89 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.79 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KMTUY.
Komatsu Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $68.84B | 25.45 | 21.89% | 1.64% | 2.93% | -8.06% | |
66 Neutral | $6.03B | 16.43 | 10.70% | ― | 3.34% | 80.30% | |
65 Neutral | $53.66B | 19.41 | 13.76% | 2.71% | -1.48% | 2.44% | |
64 Neutral | $6.31B | 27.94 | 4.71% | 1.21% | 40.10% | -17.18% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | $830.51M | 41.13 | 2.92% | 0.44% | 8.86% | -55.83% | |
60 Neutral | $34.37B | 14.14 | 11.33% | 1.54% | 3.65% | -7.50% |
* Industrials Sector Average
KMTUY
Komatsu
39.26
5.72
17.06%
CMI
Cummins
500.09
68.72
15.93%
MTW
Manitowoc Company
23.03
12.86
126.45%
PCAR
Paccar
101.91
5.88
6.12%
TEX
Terex
56.15
10.67
23.45%
GTES
Gates Industrial
23.83
1.75
7.93%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.