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Agco
(NYSE:AGCO)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$125.00
▲(5.40% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
AGCO’s score is primarily supported by improved TTM profitability and a strong balance sheet with very low leverage, but it is held back by weaker recent cash-flow trends and earnings variability. Technical signals are neutral-to-soft with limited momentum, and valuation is a notable negative due to the high P/E and modest yield. The latest earnings call adds a moderately positive tilt from reiterated guidance and increased shareholder returns, tempered by tariff and regional demand/inventory headwinds.
Positive Factors
Very low leverage and strong ROE
AGCO’s balance sheet strength—very low reported leverage and high ROE—provides durable financial flexibility. It supports continued investment in product development, weathering cyclicality in ag equipment demand, sustaining dividends and buybacks, and funding working capital without forcing distress sales or heavy external financing.
Negative Factors
Weakened free cash flow conversion
A pronounced decline in trailing free cash flow and sub-100% cash conversion of reported profits reduces internal funding available for capex, working capital and buybacks. If cash conversion remains depressed, AGCO’s ability to sustain increased shareholder returns and fund cyclical inventory builds could be constrained.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Very low leverage and strong ROE
AGCO’s balance sheet strength—very low reported leverage and high ROE—provides durable financial flexibility. It supports continued investment in product development, weathering cyclicality in ag equipment demand, sustaining dividends and buybacks, and funding working capital without forcing distress sales or heavy external financing.
Read all positive factors
Agco Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights revenue from different business segments, providing insight into which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Highlights revenue from different business segments, providing insight into which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAgco (AGCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.50B
Dividend Yield1.1%
Average Volume (3M)672.83K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.5
Beta (1Y)0.89
Revenue Growth-3.80%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees24,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAgricultural - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.38
Shares Outstanding72,408,520
10 Day Avg. Volume797,736
30 Day Avg. Volume672,829
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.04
Price to Book (P/B)1.82
Price to Sales (P/S)0.77
P/FCF Ratio10.49
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.91
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.74
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.28
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$123.00Price Target Upside3.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)6
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.60B
Agco Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AGCO Corporation operates as a global manufacturer and distributor of essential agricultural machinery and associated replacement components. The company's diverse product portfolio includes a range of tractors: high-horsepower models designed for...
How the Company Makes Money
AGCO primarily makes money by selling agricultural equipment and related solutions to farmers and other agricultural customers through dealer/distributor networks. Its key revenue streams include: (1) New equipment sales: revenue from the sale of ...
Agco Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a balanced picture: meaningful operational and margin progress (revenue growth, doubled adjusted EPS, strong Europe performance, record market share, cost-savings acceleration and increased shareholder returns) but also material near-term headwinds (notably tariff impacts, large Latin America sales decline, North American margin pressure, elevated dealer inventories and higher cash usage). Management emphasizes resilience, disciplined cost and inventory management and long-term margin targets, while acknowledging uncertainty tied to trade policy, input costs and regional demand. Overall, positives and negatives are roughly balanced.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Scale
Reported net sales of approximately $2.3 billion in Q1 2026, up ~14% year-over-year (company also noted ~5% organic net sales growth excluding favorable currency translation).
Negative Updates
Tariff and Trade Headwinds
Now expect tariff costs of approximately $135 million in 2026 (about $90 million increase versus 2025 and ~$25 million higher than previous estimate). Guidance does not assume any EPA tariff refunds; tariff uncertainty remains a meaningful headwind.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth and Scale
Reported net sales of approximately $2.3 billion in Q1 2026, up ~14% year-over-year (company also noted ~5% organic net sales growth excluding favorable currency translation).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
AGCO reiterated 2026 guidance of net sales $10.5–$10.7 billion and adjusted EPS of about $6, targeting an adjusted operating margin of 7.5%–8% for the year (with a mid‑cycle goal of 14%–15% over time). Management expects 2026 tariff costs of roughly $135 million (≈$90M above 2025 and ~$25M above prior estimates), engineering expense near 5% of sales (≈+$40M YoY), operational efficiency savings of $60–$70 million (up from $40–$60M), CapEx ~ $350 million, and an effective tax rate of 31%–33% (Q1 was 24%); free cash flow conversion is targeted at 75%–100% of adjusted net income. Near‑term cadence includes Q2 net sales of $2.7–$2.8 billion and EPS $1.35–$1.40; Q1 results were net sales ≈$2.3B (+14% YoY), operating income $80.7M (reported margin 3.4%; adjusted margin 4.6%), adjusted EPS $0.94, $455M cash used, and Q1 production hours +15% YoY while full‑year production hours are planned flat to modestly down. The company is adding a $350M repurchase (to the prior $300M under a $1B authorization), raised the quarterly dividend to $0.30 ($1.20 annualized), and closed a ~$190M sale of a 49% AGCO Finance JV stake to support capital returns and liquidity.Agco Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 10.37B | 10.08B | 11.66B | 14.41B | 12.65B | 11.14B |
| Gross Profit | 2.58B | 2.50B | 2.84B | 3.74B | 2.96B | 2.51B |
| EBITDA | 1.06B | 996.00M | 58.60M | 1.69B | 1.42B | 1.25B |
| Net Income | 771.00M | 726.50M | -424.80M | 1.17B | 889.60M | 897.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.04B | 11.93B | 11.19B | 11.42B | 10.10B | 9.18B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 514.90M | 861.80M | 612.00M | 595.00M | 787.50M | 882.20M |
| Total Debt | 115.90M | 2.69B | 2.78B | 1.53B | 1.59B | 1.62B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.45B | 7.36B | 7.15B | 6.76B | 6.22B | 5.74B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.30B | 4.27B | 3.74B | 4.66B | 3.88B | 3.42B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 545.60M | 740.20M | 296.60M | 585.00M | 449.90M | 413.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 789.90M | 988.10M | 689.90M | 1.10B | 838.20M | 682.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -42.60M | -28.30M | -1.65B | -545.70M | -496.80M | -311.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -804.30M | -729.20M | 1.05B | -671.70M | -407.00M | -539.50M |
Agco Technical Analysis
Positive
118.60
Price Trends
115.52
Positive
119.88
Negative
113.57
Positive
Market Momentum
0.03
Negative
55.15
Neutral
81.99
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 118.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 114.35, above the 50-day MA of 115.52, and above the 200-day MA of 113.57, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.99 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGCO.
Agco Risk Analysis
Agco disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Agco reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Agco Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $459.47B | 51.20 | 47.51% | 0.98% | 11.85% | -2.07% | |
68 Neutral | $9.45B | 17.01 | 12.85% | 1.56% | -0.92% | -4.01% | |
66 Neutral | $8.20B | 43.53 | 3.93% | 1.24% | 17.03% | -43.69% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $8.50B | 11.49 | 17.90% | 1.10% | -3.80% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $165.54B | 35.42 | 18.25% | 1.34% | 3.98% | -14.68% | |
51 Neutral | $13.68B | 36.90 | 4.99% | 2.67% | -4.04% | -62.88% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AGCO
Agco
119.28
12.34
11.54%
CAT
Caterpillar
1,033.19
646.46
167.16%
CNH
CNH Industrial
11.39
-1.84
-13.92%
DE
Deere
626.63
123.26
24.49%
OSK
Oshkosh
153.64
36.78
31.48%
TEX
Terex
73.57
25.48
52.99%
Agco Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
AGCO Shareholders Back Board, Pay; Reject Special Meetings
Positive
Apr 24, 2026
At AGCO’s Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on April 23, 2026, shareholders elected nine directors to the board for terms expiring at the 2027 annual meeting, with all nominated candidates, including CEO Eric P. Hansotia and eight other di...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
AGCO Updates 2026 Executive Annual Incentive Plan Framework
Positive
Mar 6, 2026
On March 3, 2026, AGCO’s Talent and Compensation Committee approved amendments to the company’s 2026 Annual Incentive Plan, revising individual award opportunities, performance metrics and their weightings to align with the current ann...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
AGCO Adds Agriscience Leader James Collins to Board
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
On March 2, 2026, AGCO’s board voted to expand its size to ten directors until the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders and appointed agriscience veteran James C. Collins Jr. as a director, effective April 1, 2026, for a term running through ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.