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ORIX
(8591)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
¥6,723.00
▲(8.12% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/11/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (improving profitability and strong free cash flow), supported by attractive valuation (low P/E and a moderate dividend). This is tempered by weak technical momentum, with the stock trading below key moving averages and a negative MACD.
Positive Factors
Improving revenue and profitability
Sustained revenue growth alongside a materially higher net margin indicates improving earnings quality and operating performance. If maintained, this combination can strengthen internal capital generation, support reinvestment across ORIX’s businesses, and improve resilience over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Leverage remains the principal balance-sheet constraint despite recent improvement. Higher debt relative to equity can reduce financial flexibility, increase sensitivity to funding costs and credit conditions, and limit ORIX’s ability to absorb losses or pursue investments during a weaker operating environment.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving revenue and profitability
Sustained revenue growth alongside a materially higher net margin indicates improving earnings quality and operating performance. If maintained, this combination can strengthen internal capital generation, support reinvestment across ORIX’s businesses, and improve resilience over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
ORIX (8591) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥6.01T
Dividend Yield2.94%
Average Volume (3M)3.21M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.3
Beta (1Y)1.15
Revenue Growth17.01%
EPS Growth71.67%
CountryJP
Employees37,286
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)561.92
Shares Outstanding1,124,106,600
10 Day Avg. Volume3,842,390
30 Day Avg. Volume3,207,813
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.38
Price to Book (P/B)1.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.55
P/FCF Ratio3.96
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥6,360.00Price Target Upside2.28% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)767.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥3.80T
ORIX Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ORIX Corporation is a diversified global financial services provider with operations spanning Japan, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Australasia, and the Middle East. The company's multifaceted activities include corporate finance and fee-based servic...
How the Company Makes Money
ORIX makes money through multiple, complementary revenue streams across its diversified platform. (1) Financing and leasing: ORIX earns interest income and fee income from corporate and consumer finance, and generates leasing revenue from equipmen...
ORIX Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 11, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong financial results (record net income, substantial pretax profit growth, improved ROE) and generous shareholder returns alongside clear strategic actions (portfolio optimization, reorganization, enhanced risk management and a push to grow AUM). However, meaningful challenges were disclosed: large impairments (notably at ORIX USA), dependency on one‑off gains (Greenko, bank sale), credit and U.S. recovery risks, geopolitical headwinds in China and Middle East exposure, and accounting/valuation uncertainty that could affect future reported profits. On balance, the company demonstrated robust performance and proactive strategic positioning, but with notable near-term risks tied to asset recycling timing and regional/sector volatility.Positive Updates
Record Net Income and ROE Improvement
Net income for FY ended Mar 2026 was JPY 447.3 billion, exceeding the revised full-year forecast of JPY 440 billion and marking a third consecutive record; net income rose JPY 95.6 billion or 27% year-over-year. ROE improved to 10.4%, up 1.6 percentage points from the prior year.
Negative Updates
Large Q4 Impairments at ORIX USA
Total impairment of JPY 97.2 billion was recorded in Q4, primarily at ORIX USA (including goodwill impairment tied to phased withdrawal from PE business), which reduced Q4 net income to JPY 57.6 billion from JPY 118.6 billion in Q3.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Net Income and ROE Improvement
Net income for FY ended Mar 2026 was JPY 447.3 billion, exceeding the revised full-year forecast of JPY 440 billion and marking a third consecutive record; net income rose JPY 95.6 billion or 27% year-over-year. ROE improved to 10.4%, up 1.6 percentage points from the prior year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ORIX’s FY2027 guidance targets group net income of JPY 530.0 billion (up JPY 82.7 billion from FY2026’s JPY 447.3 billion) and a group ROE of 11.7% (vs 10.4% in FY2026), with group pretax profit guided to JPY 760.0 billion (up JPY 68.6 billion, +10% y/y). Management breaks this down to Finance JPY 308.3 billion (up JPY 119.1 billion, +63%, including an estimated pretax gain on sale of ORIX Bank of ~JPY 124.2 billion), Operations JPY 240.7 billion (up JPY 3.6 billion, +2%), and Investments JPY 290.0 billion (down vs FY26 because FY26 included a one‑off JPY 95 billion Greenko gain; excluding that, Investments would increase). Shareholder return policy is maintained with a 39% payout ratio (implied full‑year DPS JPY 187.36), a JPY 250 billion share buyback program (up JPY 100 billion YoY) and a projected total return ratio of 85.9%.ORIX Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
83
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
79
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.43T | 3.33T | 2.87T | 2.81T | 2.66T | 2.51T |
| Gross Profit | 1.11T | 1.07T | 1.20T | 1.17T | 1.04T | 940.79B |
| EBITDA | 1.54T | 1.29T | 944.66B | 916.36B | 813.04B | 743.78B |
| Net Income | 620.81B | 448.02B | 351.63B | 346.13B | 290.34B | 317.38B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 18.26T | 18.00T | 16.87T | 16.32T | 15.29T | 14.27T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.09T | 2.23T | 1.23T | 1.05T | 1.26T | 971.10B |
| Total Debt | 6.31T | 6.81T | 6.54T | 6.46T | 6.01T | 5.16T |
| Total Liabilities | 13.41T | 13.38T | 12.69T | 12.30T | 11.67T | 10.90T |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.71T | 4.48T | 4.09T | 3.94T | 3.54T | 3.26T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 1.30T | 1.20T | 1.17T | 777.66B | 990.65B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 1.38T | 1.27T | 1.25T | 881.23B | 1.03T |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -1.11T | -1.31T | -1.36T | -1.14T | -784.99B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -160.53B | 146.27B | -100.99B | 480.70B | -330.47B |
ORIX Technical Analysis
Negative
6218.00
Price Trends
6089.32
Negative
6132.58
Negative
5466.11
Positive
Market Momentum
-84.83
Positive
40.06
Neutral
17.00
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8591, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6218 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5938.44, above the 50-day MA of 6089.32, and above the 200-day MA of 5466.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -84.83 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.00 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:8591.
ORIX Risk Analysis
ORIX disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ORIX reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ORIX Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | ¥6.01T | 10.35 | 13.63% | 2.94% | 17.01% | 71.67% | |
68 Neutral | ¥706.70B | 11.04 | 9.18% | 5.10% | 6.57% | 22.90% | |
68 Neutral | ¥389.24B | 6.35 | ― | 4.17% | 15.93% | 16.92% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | ¥315.23B | 13.99 | 4.80% | 3.63% | 8.37% | 58.03% | |
60 Neutral | ¥191.42B | 15.32 | ― | 3.41% | 7.70% | -19.10% | |
58 Neutral | ¥1.87T | 13.75 | 7.05% | 3.76% | 1.15% | -10.91% |
* Financial Sector Average
JP:8591
ORIX
5,770.00
2,180.20
60.73%
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ORIX Corporate Events
ORIX revamps Japan & APAC leadership and consolidates Greater China operations
Jun 23, 2026
ORIX Corporation, a diversified financial services group with global operations spanning financing, insurance, banking, asset management and real assets, has announced management changes and an organizational realignment in its Japan APAC Busines...
ORIX Elevates Satoru Matsuzaki to Representative Executive Officer for Japan and APAC
Jun 23, 2026
ORIX Corporation has appointed Satoru Matsuzaki as Representative Executive Officer, Deputy President and Chief Operating Officer for the Japan and Asia-Pacific Business Unit, effective June 23, 2026, following a resolution by its Board of Directo...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.