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Rakuten
(4755)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
¥769.00
▼(-0.48% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/19/26
The score is held down primarily by below-average financial fundamentals (ongoing net losses and very high leverage) and weak technical momentum (negative MACD and trading below key moving averages). The main offset is a constructive earnings call with record operating metrics and reiterated multi-year initiatives, but valuation support is limited given negative earnings and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
FinTech scale and synergy potential
Rapid growth across banking, securities, cards and payments gives Rakuten a broad financial-services platform. The planned integration can improve cross-selling, marketing efficiency and customer economics, creating a durable profit-growth opportunity.
Negative Factors
Very high financial leverage
The debt-heavy capital structure limits financial flexibility and increases refinancing sensitivity, particularly as funding costs rise. High leverage also leaves less capacity to absorb mobile investment needs or execution setbacks in weaker businesses.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
FinTech scale and synergy potential
Rapid growth across banking, securities, cards and payments gives Rakuten a broad financial-services platform. The planned integration can improve cross-selling, marketing efficiency and customer economics, creating a durable profit-growth opportunity.
Read all positive factors
Rakuten (4755) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥1.69T
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)12.39M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth10.86%
EPS Growth69.63%
CountryJP
Employees29,419
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-29.69
Shares Outstanding2,181,992,200
10 Day Avg. Volume10,950,400
30 Day Avg. Volume12,385,006
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.39
Price to Book (P/B)2.19
Price to Sales (P/S)0.87
P/FCF Ratio7.82
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥840.00Price Target Upside8.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-8.86
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥2.76T
Rakuten Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Based in Tokyo, Japan, Rakuten Group, Inc., founded in 1997, delivers a diverse array of internet-based services both within its home country and internationally. The company, which was formerly known as Rakuten, Inc. until its name change in Apri...
How the Company Makes Money
Rakuten primarily generates revenue across three major segments—Internet Services, FinTech, and Mobile—by monetizing transactions, subscriptions, advertising, and financial spreads/fees.
1) Internet Services (Commerce & Digital)
- Marketplace and...
Rakuten Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive picture: record consolidated revenue and EBITDA, strong YoY growth in non-GAAP operating income, substantial FinTech momentum and customer growth, and accelerated AI-driven product gains that are already producing measurable GMS and order improvements. Notable challenges include continued mobile segment losses and EBITDA decline, one-off logistics impairments, selective international exits, and energy/financial expense headwinds. On balance, the positives (record financials, rapid FinTech scale, AI-driven uplifts, and balance sheet actions) materially outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Return to Profitability and Strong Net Income
Quarterly net income attributable to owners: JPY 227.2 billion (returned to profit for the first time since Q2 2020), supported by tax benefit from share sales and ongoing operational improvements.
Negative Updates
Mobile Profitability and EBITDA Decline
Mobile segment remains loss-making: operating loss reported at JPY 32.3 billion; segment EBITDA declined year-on-year by 28.4% despite revenue growth (+8.3%), driven by high pre-marketing expenses and new customer acquisition costs.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Return to Profitability and Strong Net Income
Quarterly net income attributable to owners: JPY 227.2 billion (returned to profit for the first time since Q2 2020), supported by tax benefit from share sales and ongoing operational improvements.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reinforced multi‑year guidance centered on fintech integration, AI deployment and self‑funding: Q2 results were strong (net income JPY 227.2bn; consolidated revenue JPY 665.5bn, +11.6% YoY; EBITDA JPY 150.3bn, +11.7%; non‑GAAP operating income JPY 42bn, +~110% YoY; IFRS operating income JPY 20bn after JPY 17bn impairment), and the fintech reorg (effective Oct 1) is expected to deliver ≈JPY 25bn of financial impact plus ≈JPY 8bn marketing benefit in the first full year (FY Mar‑2028) and >JPY 85bn cumulative synergies by FY Mar‑2030; key operating metrics include Rakuten Bank 18.46m accounts and JPY 13.3trn deposits (+13.9% YoY) with CET1‑style capital metrics (capital adequacy 11.4%, ROE 22%), Rakuten Securities ~14.4–15m accounts and assets under custody ~JPY 58.7–60+trn (+~48% YoY), Rakuten Card shopping GTV JPY 27.7trn (card GTV +9.4% to JPY 7.1trn), Rakuten Payment revenue JPY 29.1bn (+12.2%) with non‑GAAP OI JPY 3.2bn (~+80%), internet segment revenue JPY 338.1bn (+4.2%) with non‑GAAP OI JPY 23.1bn (+68.6%) and ad revenue JPY 65.6bn (+15.6%, aiming ~JPY 300bn), travel GTV +17.2% (domestic +10%, global +78.5%), and mobile revenue JPY 121.4bn (+8.3%) with improving ARPU/churn (churn 1.3%, 20GB+ users +3.6pp) despite EBITDA pressure (‑28.4% YoY); capex/network plans ~JPY 200bn, selected for JAXA/LEO subsidy JPY 248bn, and financing actions include ~JPY 200bn raised from asset sales, targeted bond redemptions (JPY 20bn senior redeemed) while maintaining a self‑funding policy.Rakuten Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.65T | 2.50T | 2.28T | 2.07T | 1.92T | 1.68T |
| Gross Profit | 164.29B | 97.41B | 948.08B | 790.31B | 585.31B | 542.63B |
| EBITDA | 474.11B | 390.32B | 441.79B | 146.49B | -111.38B | 8.30B |
| Net Income | -64.39B | -177.89B | -162.44B | -339.47B | -377.22B | -133.83B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 31.14T | 28.80T | 26.51T | 22.63T | 20.40T | 16.83T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.49T | 5.84T | 6.33T | 5.24T | 4.79T | 4.48T |
| Total Debt | 4.80T | 5.57T | 5.51T | 4.86T | 4.89T | 3.75T |
| Total Liabilities | 29.82T | 27.45T | 25.28T | 21.54T | 19.55T | 15.71T |
| Stockholders Equity | 915.29B | 992.40B | 927.87B | 836.57B | 791.35B | 1.09T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 91.88B | 277.83B | 1.04T | 493.47B | -584.07B | 295.85B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 179.14B | 343.50B | 1.13T | 687.30B | -285.40B | 582.71B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -400.63B | -779.81B | -920.42B | -584.09B | -944.93B | -611.83B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -690.00B | 94.72B | 819.49B | 315.52B | 1.51T | 1.40T |
Rakuten Technical Analysis
Negative
772.70
Price Trends
782.30
Negative
775.06
Positive
842.88
Negative
Market Momentum
-7.79
Positive
46.87
Neutral
49.41
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4755, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 772.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 801.25, below the 50-day MA of 782.30, and below the 200-day MA of 842.88, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -7.79 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4755.
Rakuten Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | ¥1.73T | 19.25 | 9.34% | 1.26% | ― | ― | |
73 Outperform | ¥1.01T | 20.87 | 49.71% | 3.47% | 6.32% | 6.95% | |
63 Neutral | ¥310.10B | 13.87 | 12.70% | 2.50% | 6.75% | 19.91% | |
63 Neutral | ¥755.09B | 21.40 | 31.08% | ― | 19.03% | 35.09% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | ¥593.19B | 29.04 | 2.32% | 2.31% | 6.56% | -37.24% | |
49 Neutral | ¥1.69T | -26.21 | -14.02% | ― | 10.86% | 69.63% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
JP:4755
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Rakuten Corporate Events
Rakuten Books ¥17 Billion Impairment as Logistics Strategy Shifts
Aug 10, 2026
Rakuten Group, Inc. has moved to restructure part of its logistics business by ending the leasing of certain warehouse space to external tenants and reallocating that capacity for internal use. The decision follows discussions with lessees and com...
Rakuten Returns to Operating Profit but Keeps Dividend at Zero Amid Weak Equity Ratios
Aug 10, 2026
Rakuten Group reported a 12.9% year-on-year rise in revenue to ¥1.31 trillion for the six months ended June 30, 2026, with operating income turning positive to ¥50.4 billion after a loss a year earlier, and EBITDA climbing 22.4% to ¥...
Rakuten Securities Posts Surging Interim Profits Ahead of Rakuten Group IFRS Results
Jul 30, 2026
Rakuten Securities, Inc., a consolidated subsidiary of Rakuten Group, Inc., reported strong interim results for the six months ended June 30, 2026 under J-GAAP, highlighting the growing scale of the group’s securities and brokerage operation...
Rakuten Rolls Out Wide-Ranging Stock Option Plan for 15,000 Employees
Jul 16, 2026
Rakuten Group has approved the issuance of share acquisition rights as stock options to directors of its subsidiaries and to more than 15,000 executive officers and employees across the group, covering up to 6,021,800 common shares. The options, w...
Rakuten Bank to Lead Reorganized FinTech Arm as Parent of Card and Securities Units
May 20, 2026
Rakuten Group and Rakuten Bank have agreed on a reorganization of the group’s FinTech operations in which Rakuten Bank will become the parent company of Rakuten Card and Rakuten Securities Holdings through share deliveries, subject to shareh...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.