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Mercari Inc (JP:4385)
:4385
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Mercari (4385) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:4385

Mercari

(4385)

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Neutral 63 (OpenAI - Gpt-5.6Sol)
Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
¥4,765.00
▲(7.01% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/09/26
The score is held back primarily by negative operating/free cash flow and high leverage despite improved profitability. Technicals are a clear positive with price trading above key moving averages and constructive momentum. Valuation appears moderate based on a ~20.9 P/E, but lacks dividend support due to no yield data.
Positive Factors
Profitability turnaround
The shift from losses to strong operating and net profitability shows improved earnings power. Sustained margins can provide internal funding for product, marketplace and fintech investment if revenue growth remains resilient.
Negative Factors
Persistent cash burn
Negative operating and free cash flow means reported profits are not yet converting reliably into cash. If this persists, Mercari may need financing or balance-sheet capacity to fund operations and investment, reducing financial flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability turnaround
The shift from losses to strong operating and net profitability shows improved earnings power. Sustained margins can provide internal funding for product, marketplace and fintech investment if revenue growth remains resilient.
Read all positive factors

Mercari (4385) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Mercari Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Mercari, Inc. handles the conceptualization, building, and continuous management of its Mercari marketplace applications for customers in both Japan and the United States. The company, headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, commenced operations in 2013....
How the Company Makes Money
Mercari makes money mainly by monetizing transactions and activity on its marketplace platform. Its primary revenue stream is transaction-related fees charged when items are sold on Mercari (i.e., a take rate/commission collected from completed sa...

Mercari Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements in profitability and technological integration, particularly in the Fintech and cross-border transactions segments. However, there are notable challenges with revenue growth and GMV, especially in the Marketplace and U.S. segments, indicating areas for improvement.
Positive Updates
Record High Core Operating Profit
Core operating profit reached JPY 27.5 billion, significantly exceeding the forecast, representing a 46% year-on-year growth.
Negative Updates
Revenue Growth Challenges
Revenue came in at JPY 192.6 billion, falling short of the forecast due to a slowdown in the growth of the marketplace and U.S. businesses, with a 3% increase year-on-year.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Negative
Record High Core Operating Profit
Core operating profit reached JPY 27.5 billion, significantly exceeding the forecast, representing a 46% year-on-year growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During Mercari's FY 2025 Full Year Financial Results Presentation, key performance metrics were highlighted. The company reported a core operating profit of JPY 27.5 billion, surpassing forecasts, with a revenue of JPY 192.6 billion, which, despite being below expectations, still marked a record high. The marketplace, Fintech, and U.S. segments all achieved profitability for the first time, with cross-border transaction GMV over JPY 90 billion and Mercard issuances exceeding 5 million. Looking forward to FY 2026, Mercari anticipates revenue growth of 4% to 9%, aiming for a core operating profit between JPY 28 billion and JPY 32 billion. The company plans to invest in AI and capitalize on its credit business, targeting a CAGR of over 25% in core operating profit compared to FY 2024. Additionally, the Fintech segment saw a significant core operating profit rise to JPY 4.5 billion, driven by a 32% growth in the credit balance. The U.S. business also achieved profitability with a JPY 900 million operating profit. Mercari continues to focus on being an AI-native company, enhancing user experiences, and strengthening its product offerings across all segments.

Mercari Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income statement is strong (turnaround to solid profitability with ~20% operating margin and ~15.7% net margin in TTM), but this is outweighed by weak cash conversion (TTM operating cash flow -9.5B and free cash flow -10.9B) and elevated leverage (debt ~2.1x equity). Slowing revenue growth to ~6.2% also limits upside from operating leverage.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
28
Negative
BreakdownJun 2026Jun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue229.29B192.63B187.41B171.97B147.05B
Gross Profit168.91B138.26B129.73B113.96B95.14B
EBITDA47.06B31.62B20.42B19.63B-3.04B
Net Income35.40B26.11B13.46B13.11B-7.57B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets726.62B543.76B501.77B418.35B339.86B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments184.07B147.03B192.00B201.82B211.41B
Total Debt274.32B199.38B193.31B160.55B134.18B
Total Liabilities589.15B444.12B429.62B362.69B301.86B
Stockholders Equity137.07B99.27B71.84B55.35B37.68B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-10.93B-12.25B-43.49B-36.40B-26.89B
Operating Cash Flow-9.51B-11.95B-43.34B-35.82B-26.22B
Investing Cash Flow-29.24B-31.36B-877.00M-601.00M-671.00M
Financing Cash Flow73.47B504.00M32.09B25.17B62.06B

Mercari Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
¥93.21B9.821.81%16.16%176.37%
75
Outperform
¥51.20B18.781.32%9.16%47.03%
74
Outperform
¥51.64B14.872.19%15.56%21.99%
63
Neutral
¥739.55B20.8431.08%19.03%35.09%
62
Neutral
¥202.33B24.010.64%57.65%100.02%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
60
Neutral
¥1.40B42.862.41%-63.72%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:4385
Mercari
4,456.00
2,021.50
83.04%
JP:2681
GEO Holdings Corporation
2,372.00
730.05
44.46%
JP:3093
Treasure Factory Co., Ltd.
2,139.00
383.53
21.85%
JP:4017
CREEMA LTD.
212.00
-107.00
-33.54%
JP:7685
BuySell Technologies Co., Ltd.
3,300.00
1,616.23
95.99%
JP:9278
BOOKOFF GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
2,966.00
1,480.35
99.64%

Mercari Corporate Events

Mercari Completes ¥10 Billion Share Buyback and Sets Cancellation Date
Aug 25, 2026
Mercari has completed the purchase of 2,118,800 of its own common shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange for approximately 9.9997 billion yen, following an August 5 board resolution authorizing up to 4 million shares and 10 billion yen. The shares, bo...
Mercari Delivers Strong FY2026 Earnings and Projects Further Growth
Aug 5, 2026
Mercari reported strong consolidated results for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2026, with revenue rising 19.0% to ¥229.3 billion and core operating profit surging 60.2% to ¥44.2 billion, driven by improved profitability and higher trans...
Mercari Launches ¥10 Billion Share Buyback and Plans Cancellation
Aug 5, 2026
Mercari, Inc. has approved a share repurchase program and subsequent cancellation of the acquired shares as part of its capital allocation strategy. The board authorized the purchase of up to 4 million common shares, representing about 2.4% of out...
Mercari Beats Forecasts as Marketplace, Fintech and U.S. Units Drive Profit Surge
Aug 5, 2026
Mercari reported strong full-year results for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2026, with revenue rising to 229.3 billion yen and core operating profit climbing to 44.2 billion yen, both significantly above the prior year and its own forecasts. All ...
Mercari Ties Executive Stock Awards to Ambitious JPY 2 Trillion Valuation Goal
Jul 29, 2026
Mercari has introduced a new Performance Share Unit plan for its executive officers, replacing existing restricted stock units and phantom stock for the CEO and supplementing them for three other executives. The stock-based compensation is tied to...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 09, 2026