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INPEX
(1605)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
¥4,573.00
▲(19.18% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/09/26
The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial performance (profitability and cash flow resilience) and supportive earnings-call guidance with enhanced shareholder returns. Valuation is reasonably attractive (moderate P/E and solid yield). Offsetting these positives, technicals are mixed and the outlook remains sensitive to commodity/geopolitical factors and project-execution uncertainty (notably Abadi).
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
INPEX generates substantial operating and free cash flow, providing internal funding for development while supporting dividends and buybacks. Although cash flow varies with commodity prices and investment timing, the recurring positive balance strengthens financial resilience and strategic flexibility.
Negative Factors
Commodity-driven earnings volatility
INPEX remains exposed to commodity prices, production volumes, and project timing, making revenue and free cash flow less predictable than those of more diversified businesses. This cyclicality can complicate investment planning and create meaningful earnings swings across several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
INPEX generates substantial operating and free cash flow, providing internal funding for development while supporting dividends and buybacks. Although cash flow varies with commodity prices and investment timing, the recurring positive balance strengthens financial resilience and strategic flexibility.
Read all positive factors
INPEX (1605) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥4.87T
Dividend Yield2.61%
Average Volume (3M)4.27M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.0
Beta (1Y)0.23
Revenue Growth-7.57%
EPS Growth2.16%
CountryJP
Employees3,720
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)370.58
Shares Outstanding1,259,136,100
10 Day Avg. Volume4,852,000
30 Day Avg. Volume4,265,036
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.25
Price to Book (P/B)0.78
Price to Sales (P/S)1.85
P/FCF Ratio5.39
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥4,526.67Price Target Upside17.97% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)458.3
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥2.24T
INPEX Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Inpex Corporation is a global energy company specializing in the entire lifecycle of oil, natural gas, and other mineral resources, from initial exploration and development through to production and sales. The company maintains a broad internation...
How the Company Makes Money
INPEX primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, condensate, natural gas, and LNG—derived from its operated and non-operated upstream projects. Revenue is generally generated through (1) lifting/sales of crude oil and c...
INPEX Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: record H1 profit, a record full-year profit target (JPY 510 billion), strong operating cash flow (>JPY 1 trillion), clear progress on major growth projects (Abadi FEED ~80%, Ichthys performance), and a robust shareholder return program (DPS JPY112, JPY140 billion buyback). Management also candidly discussed risks: a ~30% reduction in Abu Dhabi sales volume from the Strait of Hormuz closure (partially offset by portfolio and higher prices), one-off impairments (~JPY 20 billion), uncertainty around Abadi final CapEx/IRR and Indonesian negotiations, and regulatory/geopolitical risks in Australia and the Middle East. On balance, the positive items (record earnings, cash generation, project progress, shareholder returns) outweigh the challenges, though timing and policy risks remain material.Positive Updates
Record profit and strong full-year forecast
Net profit (H1) reached JPY 263.1 billion (highest on record); management forecasts full-year profit of JPY 510 billion (record high) and ROE above 10%.
Negative Updates
Abu Dhabi sales volume decline (~30%) due to Strait of Hormuz disruption
Sales volume from Abu Dhabi fell approximately 30% year-over-year for the period because oil exports for some fields require transit through the Strait of Hormuz; management now assumes normalization by October (versus earlier assumptions).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record profit and strong full-year forecast
Net profit (H1) reached JPY 263.1 billion (highest on record); management forecasts full-year profit of JPY 510 billion (record high) and ROE above 10%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
INPEX guided to record results and continued growth: H1 profit attributable to owners reached JPY 263.1 billion (H1 EPS JPY 226.33), and management reiterated a full‑year net profit forecast of JPY 510 billion with operating cash flow of about JPY 1.0 trillion and investment cash flow of JPY 859 billion; they expect to accumulate roughly JPY 770 billion of cash reserves for Abadi by year‑end, pay a record JPY 112 DPS (up JPY 12), execute about JPY 140 billion of share buybacks and target a total payout ratio of ~53%. Production is guided to rise from ~730,000 BOE/d to ~800,000 BOE/d after Abadi, with operating cash flow potential growing to JPY 1.5 trillion; Abadi FEED is ~80% complete with FID hoped mid‑next year, Abadi LNG capacity 9.5 Mtpa (≈8 Mtpa long‑term contracts + ~1.5 Mtpa buffer), Ichthys cargoes and LNG sales up (c.10 cargoes/month), Abu Dhabi sales volume down ~30% year‑on‑year due to Strait of Hormuz issues (normalization assumed around October), and macro assumptions of Brent ~$80 (Q3)/$70 (Q4) and yen around JPY 160.INPEX Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.96T | 2.01T | 2.27T | 2.16T | 2.32T | 1.24T |
| Gross Profit | 1.09T | 1.13T | 1.35T | 1.32T | 1.38T | 675.45B |
| EBITDA | 1.53T | 1.61T | 1.52T | 1.53T | 1.54T | 867.24B |
| Net Income | 433.46B | 393.84B | 427.34B | 321.71B | 438.28B | 223.05B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.39T | 7.74T | 7.38T | 6.74T | 6.45T | 5.16T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 216.19B | 168.41B | 241.68B | 201.15B | 208.24B | 201.76B |
| Total Debt | 1.32T | 1.24T | 1.06T | 1.06T | 1.27T | 1.20T |
| Total Liabilities | 3.04T | 2.71T | 2.24T | 2.24T | 2.38T | 1.81T |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.10T | 4.75T | 4.82T | 4.21T | 3.81T | 3.12T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 691.27B | 353.68B | 536.00B | 538.59B | 304.99B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 693.89B | 654.74B | 788.13B | 782.27B | 445.46B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -667.00B | -283.26B | -308.32B | -513.47B | -124.27B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -112.46B | -357.07B | -499.06B | -268.25B | -321.67B |
INPEX Technical Analysis
Positive
3837.00
Price Trends
3847.86
Positive
3660.27
Positive
3732.26
Positive
Market Momentum
67.11
Negative
63.10
Neutral
87.29
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:1605, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3837 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3803.65, below the 50-day MA of 3847.86, and above the 200-day MA of 3732.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 67.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.29 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:1605.
INPEX Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | ¥446.47B | 10.92 | 7.05% | 3.86% | -15.65% | -52.06% | |
75 Outperform | ¥4.87T | 10.97 | 9.02% | 2.61% | -7.57% | 2.16% | |
73 Outperform | ¥544.15B | 8.00 | 29.15% | 2.26% | 16.80% | 89.11% | |
72 Outperform | ¥3.79T | 5.57 | 20.51% | 2.38% | 2.30% | 437.64% | |
71 Outperform | ¥1.85T | 4.80 | 21.79% | 2.38% | -2.72% | 3087.62% | |
69 Neutral | ¥700.43B | 4.29 | ― | 3.87% | -0.10% | 446.81% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
JP:1605
INPEX
4,065.00
1,314.22
47.78%
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INPEX Corporate Events
INPEX Advances Share Buyback, Repurchasing Over 12.6 Million Shares
Oct 7, 2026
INPEX CORPORATION has reported progress on a share repurchase program authorized by its board of directors in August 2026. The company acquired 5,921,900 common shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between September 1 and September 30, at a total co...
INPEX Launches Multibillion-Yen Share Buyback Program
Sep 7, 2026
INPEX CORPORATION has begun executing a share buyback program authorized by its Board of Directors, focusing on the acquisition of common shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The initiative forms part of the company’s capital management strat...
INPEX Launches ¥140 Billion Share Buyback to Boost Capital Efficiency
Aug 7, 2026
INPEX CORPORATION’s board has approved a new share buyback program, authorizing the acquisition of up to 50 million common shares, or about 4.3 percent of its outstanding stock excluding treasury shares, for a total amount of up to 140 billi...
INPEX Lifts Interim Dividends and Raises 2026 Payout Forecasts
Aug 7, 2026
INPEX has approved higher interim dividends for both common and Class A shares and raised its year-end dividend forecasts for the 2026 fiscal year, signaling stronger returns to shareholders. The interim dividend for common stock is set at 56 yen ...
INPEX Lifts 2026 Profit Outlook on Strong Ichthys Output Despite Middle East Drag
Aug 7, 2026
INPEX reported that revenue for the first half of 2026 came in slightly below its earlier forecast due to lower sales volumes stemming from instability in the Middle East. However, profits beat expectations as higher crude oil prices and strong ou...
INPEX Sets Investor Briefing on FY2026 First-Half Results and Outlook
Aug 7, 2026
INPEX CORPORATION, a major Japanese oil and gas producer, outlined its financial communications plan for the first half of fiscal 2026, reflecting its continued role in securing energy supply for Japan and its global partners. The company schedule...
INPEX Raises Dividend Forecast as First-Half Profit Climbs Despite Lower Revenue
Aug 7, 2026
INPEX reported consolidated revenue of ¥1,000.5 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2026, down 4.6% year on year, while operating profit was broadly flat at ¥618.7 billion and profit attributable to owners of the parent rose 17.7% ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.