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Invesco Mortgage
(NYSE:IVR)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
â–¼(-26.08% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/15/26
IVR’s score is held back primarily by balance-sheet and funding risk (high leverage, thin equity cushion, low cash-flow coverage of debt) and weak technicals (below major moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by improved recent profitability/cash generation and a very low P/E with an extremely high dividend yield, while earnings-call commentary supports a measured outlook amid book value and distribution pressure.
Positive Factors
Improved profitability and cash generation
Recent profitability and cash generation provide a stronger operating base than prior loss periods. Free cash flow roughly matching net income suggests reported earnings are supported by cash, improving the company’s capacity to fund dividends, hedging and portfolio activity over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
High leverage and thin equity cushion
High leverage leaves IVR with limited equity protection against declines in mortgage-asset values or disruptions in funding markets. The relatively small equity base can amplify changes in book value and increases refinancing sensitivity, constraining financial flexibility during stressed conditions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved profitability and cash generation
Recent profitability and cash generation provide a stronger operating base than prior loss periods. Free cash flow roughly matching net income suggests reported earnings are supported by cash, improving the company’s capacity to fund dividends, hedging and portfolio activity over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Invesco Mortgage (IVR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$594.18M
Dividend Yield28.26%
Average Volume (3M)3.70M
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.5
Beta (1Y)0.60
Revenue Growth31.49%
EPS Growth274.62%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.60
Shares Outstanding107,640,420
10 Day Avg. Volume3,763,267
30 Day Avg. Volume3,703,397
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)0.70
Price to Sales (P/S)1.64
P/FCF Ratio3.55
Enterprise Value/Market Cap11.58
Enterprise Value/Revenue22.17
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit27.97
Enterprise Value/Ebitda24.16
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.75Price Target Upside4.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)1.93
Revenue Forecast (FY)$215.59M
Invesco Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. functions as a real estate investment trust (REIT), concentrating on acquiring, funding, and overseeing a diverse portfolio of mortgage-backed securities and other assets linked to real estate. Its holdings include bo...
How the Company Makes Money
IVR primarily makes money from the net interest income earned on its mortgage-related investment portfolio. It purchases or originates mortgage assets (such as agency MBS and other mortgage credit investments) that generate interest and other cash...
Invesco Mortgage Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a constructive operational and financial picture: the firm delivered a positive economic return (3.8%), grew the portfolio meaningfully (12.4% qoq), raised significant capital (~$118M in Q2, >$250M YTD), and maintained ample liquidity and heavy hedge coverage (97%). At the same time, management acknowledged pressures: EAD declined (from $0.55 to $0.50), modest book value weakness (−0.6% Q2; estimated −2.5% quarter-to-date), spread widening and elevated front-end volatility, specified pool payup risk (~$50M MV), and concentrated repo funding and leverage (~9x). Overall, the positives around portfolio performance, attractive levered returns, balance sheet flexibility and disciplined hedging were presented as outweighing the near-term risks, though management remains cautious given macro and geopolitical uncertainties.Positive Updates
Strong Economic Return and Consistent Dividend
Generated an economic return of 3.8% in Q2, comprised of monthly dividends of $0.12 per share; book value per share only modestly declined 0.6% for the quarter while dividend payout remained intact.
Negative Updates
Earnings Available for Distribution Decline
Earnings available for distribution (EAD) declined from $0.55 in Q1 to $0.50 in Q2 (≈9.1% decrease), a trend that could pressure dividend coverage if it continues.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Economic Return and Consistent Dividend
Generated an economic return of 3.8% in Q2, comprised of monthly dividends of $0.12 per share; book value per share only modestly declined 0.6% for the quarter while dividend payout remained intact.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance was that the firm remains "constructive yet measured" into Q3 amid attractive Agency RMBS/CMBS valuations but ongoing monetary policy, inflation and geopolitical uncertainty; they cited a Q2 economic return of 3.8% (monthly dividend $0.12/share), a 0.6% quarter decline in book value (QTD BV down ~2.5% including the accrued dividend), EAD of $0.50 (versus $0.55 in Q1), and a $8.2B portfolio (≈$6.0B Agency RMBS, $1.2B Agency TBA, $0.9B Agency CMBS) with ~$548M cash/unencumbered investments (~55% of equity). Key risk-management metrics: ~97% of borrowing costs hedged (hedges = 79% swaps by notional, 65% by dollar duration), leverage ~9x debt-to-equity, duration gap reduced from ~0.5 to ~0.25 years, repo financing rose from $5.3B to $6.2B and hedge notional from $4.9B to $6.0B; capital/momentum indicators included 12.4% Q/Q portfolio growth, ~$118M raised in Q2 (~$250M YTD) via ATM, current‑coupon spread to the 5/10‑year SOFR blend at 143 bps (≈150 bps in July), and targeted levered gross returns of mid–high teens on higher‑coupon specified pools (TBA high teens; Agency CMBS low double digits).Invesco Mortgage Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
59
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 310.47M | 339.70M | 329.27M | 189.80M | -437.55M | 50.33M |
| Gross Profit | 246.06M | 119.84M | 79.09M | 177.51M | -377.60M | 29.25M |
| EBITDA | 284.94M | 321.14M | 310.38M | 222.78M | -331.66M | -79.29M |
| Net Income | 120.08M | 101.29M | 59.88M | -15.86M | -402.92M | -90.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.24B | 6.48B | 5.69B | 5.28B | 5.10B | 8.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 73.38M | 56.04M | 73.40M | 76.97M | 176.20M | 357.40M |
| Total Debt | 6.21B | 5.62B | 4.89B | 4.46B | 4.24B | 7.00B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.25B | 5.68B | 4.96B | 4.50B | 4.29B | 7.04B |
| Stockholders Equity | 990.32M | 797.54M | 730.73M | 782.66M | 804.08M | 1.40B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 166.02M | 157.09M | 183.16M | 237.79M | 196.08M | 152.29M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 166.02M | 157.09M | 183.16M | 237.79M | 196.08M | 152.29M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.84B | -892.87M | -497.43M | -536.80M | 2.42B | 120.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.72B | 691.33M | 326.51M | 218.87M | -2.92B | -88.57M |
Invesco Mortgage Technical Analysis
Neutral
7.44
Price Trends
6.20
Negative
6.71
Negative
7.03
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.21
Negative
41.40
Neutral
49.09
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IVR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 7.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.50, above the 50-day MA of 6.20, and above the 200-day MA of 7.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for IVR.
Invesco Mortgage Risk Analysis
Invesco Mortgage disclosed 87 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Invesco Mortgage reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Invesco Mortgage Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
59 Neutral | $10.52B | 126.71 | 0.48% | 16.23% | 151.78% | -96.75% | |
57 Neutral | $680.32M | 5.10 | 8.23% | 21.40% | 19.70% | 13.45% | |
55 Neutral | $594.18M | 3.45 | 13.99% | 28.26% | 31.49% | 274.62% | |
55 Neutral | $14.39B | 12.74 | 6.97% | 15.81% | -3.52% | -33.98% | |
48 Neutral | $702.34M | -11.22 | 0.05% | 20.50% | 14.40% | -178.46% | |
43 Neutral | $1.88B | -421.67 | -2.19% | 22.77% | -139.97% | -148.81% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
IVR
Invesco Mortgage
5.52
-0.43
-7.29%
AGNC
AGNC Investment
8.87
0.09
1.01%
NLY
Annaly Capital
18.34
0.29
1.60%
ARR
ARMOUR Residential REIT
12.65
-0.99
-7.26%
CIM
Chimera Investment
8.39
-2.63
-23.87%
MFA
MFA Financial
6.73
-0.90
-11.82%
Invesco Mortgage Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Invesco Mortgage Declares October Dividend, Highlights Leverage
Positive
Oct 14, 2026
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc., a NYSE-listed mortgage REIT focused on agency RMBS, CMBS and associated TBA positions, reported a total investment portfolio of about $8.0 billion as of September 30, 2026, largely concentrated in 30-year fixed-rate ...
DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Invesco Mortgage Announces Dividend and Preliminary Financials
Neutral
Sep 15, 2026
On September 15, 2026, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. declared a cash dividend of $0.12 per share for September 2026, payable on October 15 to stockholders of record as of September 28, with the same date as ex-dividend. The announcement was accomp...
DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Invesco Mortgage declares August 2026 common stock dividend
Positive
Aug 14, 2026
On August 14, 2026, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. declared a cash dividend of $0.12 per share on its common stock for August 2026, payable on September 15 to shareholders of record as of August 25. The announcement underscored the company’s ...
Executive/Board Changes
Invesco Mortgage Capital Adds Peter Graham to Board
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
On August 3, 2026, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. appointed Peter Graham to its Board of Directors and to the Audit, Compensation, and Nomination and Corporate Governance committees. Graham, Co-President and Chief Financial Officer of Sallie Mae wi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.