Intesa Sanpaolo (ISNPY) AI Stock Analysis

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Intesa Sanpaolo

(Other OTC:ISNPY)

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Rating:73Outperform

Price Target:$45.00▲(7.25% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:11/03/26

The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance (stronger profitability and reduced leverage, tempered by volatile cash flow) and a positive earnings outlook with upgraded 2026 guidance and strong reported operating metrics. Valuation is supportive with a low P/E and high dividend yield, while technical indicators remain the main drag due to bearish trend signals despite near-oversold readings.

Positive Factors

Record profitabilityRecord nine-month and quarterly earnings indicate strong operating execution and broad earnings power rather than isolated growth. Continued profitability provides internal capacity to invest in technology, support customers, maintain capital strength, and sustain shareholder distributions over the coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Volatile cash generationThe large multi-year swings in operating and free cash flow make internally funded growth less predictable, even after the 2025 rebound. This variability can complicate capital allocation and reduces confidence that reported profitability will translate consistently into available cash.

Intesa Sanpaolo (ISNPY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $20.26B
Dividend Yield: 6.23%
Average Volume (3M): 196.47K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.3
Beta (1Y): 0.89
Revenue Growth: -6.50%
EPS Growth: 16.13%
Country: US
Employees: 100,356
Sector: Financial
Sector Strength: 68
Industry: Banks

Intesa Sanpaolo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Intesa Sanpaolo SpA engages in the provision of financial products and banking services. It operates through the following segments: Banca dei Territori, IMI Corporate and Investment Banking, International Subsidiary Banks, Private Banking, Asset Man...

How the Company Makes Money

Intesa Sanpaolo makes money primarily by earning net interest income and fee-based income from a diversified set of banking and wealth-related activities. A major revenue driver is net interest income: the bank collects deposits and other funding and...

Intesa Sanpaolo Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 03, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:4.91%|Next Earnings Date:Jan 29, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was strongly positive overall. Intesa Sanpaolo reported record profitability, revenue growth, improved efficiency, strong asset quality, solid capital and liquidity, upgraded 2026 guidance, and continued progress on the Monte dei Paschi transaction. The main negative topics were the substantial and potentially increasing tax burden, a EUR 144 million negative trading mark-to-market result, uncertainty around the final budget-law impact and transaction-related timing, and modest operational, Stage 2 and performance-fee pressures. These concerns were outweighed by the breadth and strength of the reported operating performance.

Positive Updates

Best-Ever Nine-Month and Third-Quarter Results

Intesa Sanpaolo reported its best nine months ever, with net income of EUR 8.2 billion, including more than EUR 2.6 billion in the third quarter, which was also the bank's best third quarter ever. Nine-month net income was up 8% year-on-year, while third-quarter net income increased 12%.

Negative Updates

Significant Tax Impact from the 2026 Budget Law

The bank reported an almost EUR 1 billion impact from the 2026 budget law, including a EUR 900 million impact from higher taxes. It said that it would pay EUR 5.2 billion in taxes over the first nine months, including EUR 900 million in cash contributions to Italy's public finances.

Company Guidance

Intesa Sanpaolo upgraded its 2026 net income guidance to well above EUR 10 billion; net interest income is expected at well above EUR 15 billion for this year with a strong acceleration in Q4 and further growth in 2027, while the replicating portfolio is expected to increase between EUR 500 million and EUR 600 million for 2027. If settlement of the Monte dei Paschi di Siena transaction will be in 2027, the integration charges will be placed in 2027, not in 2026, and the 2026 guidance already includes some kind of actions on the cost base, asset quality and other charges and provisions. Fourth-quarter performance fees could be similar to last year’s EUR 90 million, compared with below EUR 50 million in the first 3 quarters, while fourth-quarter operational risk is expected to add EUR 1 billion and risk-weighted assets can remain stable.

Intesa Sanpaolo Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability improved meaningfully into 2025 (higher net income and stronger margins) and leverage improved sharply with a large reduction in debt, supporting balance-sheet resilience. Offsetting this, cash flow has been highly volatile across recent years despite a 2025 rebound, which reduces confidence in consistency and predictability.

Income Statement

84Very Positive

Balance Sheet

66Positive

Cash Flow

58Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	17.54B	46.03B	44.81B	41.01B	25.44B	24.38B
Gross Profit	24.41B	34.29B	28.29B	25.42B	21.57B	21.90B
EBITDA	11.18B	14.38B	13.77B	12.40B	7.76B	6.77B
Net Income	10.15B	9.47B	8.67B	7.72B	4.38B	4.18B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	989.21B	959.48B	933.28B	963.57B	975.68B	1.07T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0	37.85B	99.87B	98.83B	122.09B	147.09B
Total Debt	57.14B	139.31B	146.57B	142.13B	98.45B	101.22B
Total Liabilities	920.55B	894.13B	867.96B	899.44B	913.86B	1.00T
Stockholders Equity	68.53B	57.50B	65.18B	63.96B	61.10B	63.77B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0	17.61B	-41.86B	-18.99B	100.43B	6.91B
Operating Cash Flow	0	17.87B	-40.19B	-17.34B	102.28B	8.80B
Investing Cash Flow	0	-33.95B	-1.25B	-588.00M	-538.00M	-2.23B
Financing Cash Flow	0	13.41B	-7.19B	-5.59B	-3.52B	-5.59B

Intesa Sanpaolo Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral

Last Price41.96

Price Trends

50DMA43.31Negative

100DMA44.08Negative

200DMA41.83Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-0.20Negative

RSI51.23Neutral

STOCH91.73Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ISNPY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 41.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.80, below the 50-day MA of 43.31, and above the 200-day MA of 41.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.73 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ISNPY.

Intesa Sanpaolo Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

ISNPY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ISNPY	73Outperform	$122.75B	11.25	15.91%	6.23%	-6.50%	16.13%
ING	73Outperform	$92.17B	12.83	13.48%	4.55%	11.88%	22.51%
NWG	70Outperform	$62.01B	8.11	15.79%	5.92%	6.17%	16.21%
Sector *	68Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
BBVA	66Neutral	$144.13B	11.57	20.16%	4.28%	14.69%	18.60%
LYG	59Neutral	$73.27B	10.02	13.09%	4.13%	1.06%	75.52%
SAN	59Neutral	$181.62B	10.17	15.04%	2.21%	21.16%	27.88%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ISNPY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
ISNPY	Intesa Sanpaolo Spa	41.96	1.20	2.94%
BBVA	Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria	26.21	5.40	25.92%
ING	Ing Groep N.V.	33.47	8.36	33.28%
LYG	Lloyds Banking Group	5.21	0.50	10.71%
NWG	Natwest Group Plc	15.93	0.62	4.02%
SAN	Banco Santander US	12.48	1.74	16.22%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 03, 2026

Intesa Sanpaolo AI Stock Analysis