Intesa Sanpaolo (ISNPY) AI Stock Analysis

Intesa Sanpaolo

(Other OTC:ISNPY)

Select Model

Rating:80Outperform

Price Target:$46.00▲(14.37% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:10/30/26

Intesa Sanpaolo's strong overall score is primarily driven by outstanding fundamental performance, an upgraded earnings outlook, and a highly attractive 6.54% dividend yield. Management's confidence in future profitability and significant planned shareholder returns strongly anchor the stock's investment case. While the stock currently faces notable technical weakness and bearish momentum, the underlying financial health and favorable valuation provide a compelling long-term foundation.

Positive Factors

Stronger profitabilityImproved net income, revenue growth and margins indicate stronger earnings power entering the next several quarters. Higher profitability can support capital generation, shareholder distributions and continued investment while giving the bank more capacity to absorb operating or credit-cycle pressure.

Negative Factors

Volatile cash generationLarge swings in operating and free cash flow make internally funded growth and capital planning less predictable than the income statement alone suggests. Although 2025 improved, the recent pattern leaves earnings conversion and recurring funding quality exposed to future balance-sheet movements.

Intesa Sanpaolo (ISNPY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $19.14B
Dividend Yield: 6.53%
Average Volume (3M): 145.00K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.6
Beta (1Y): 0.82
Revenue Growth: 1.06%
EPS Growth: 15.61%
Country: US
Employees: 100,356
Sector: Financial
Sector Strength: 68
Industry: Banks

Intesa Sanpaolo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Intesa Sanpaolo SpA engages in the provision of financial products and banking services. It operates through the following segments: Banca dei Territori, IMI Corporate and Investment Banking, International Subsidiary Banks, Private Banking, Asset Man...

How the Company Makes Money

Intesa Sanpaolo makes money primarily by earning net interest income and fee-based income from a diversified set of banking and wealth-related activities. A major revenue driver is net interest income: the bank collects deposits and other funding and...

Intesa Sanpaolo Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:-9.15%|Next Earnings Date:Jan 28, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call conveyed broadly positive operating and financial momentum: record H1 and Q2 profitability, strong commercial trends (loans, deposits, customer assets), improved margins and an upgraded 2026 net income target. Cost efficiency, top-tier asset quality and robust capital/liquidity metrics support a constructive outlook. Key risks are concentrated on H2 revenue mix volatility (seasonal fees and variable trading income), higher provisions/other charges, and execution/regulatory uncertainty tied to the Monte dei Paschi transaction (including governance frictions and capital assumptions). Overall, the positives — clear revenue and profitability improvement, upgraded guidance, and strong asset quality — outweigh the noted headwinds.

Positive Updates

Record Profitability and Upgraded Guidance

Net income of EUR 5.6 billion for H1 2026 (EUR 2.8 billion in Q2 — best quarter ever); H1 net income +6% YoY and Q2 net income +7% YoY. EPS increased by 9% YoY. Management upgraded 2026 net income guidance to > EUR 10 billion.

Negative Updates

Higher Tax Rate

Effective tax rate increased by ~2 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to Italy's budget law, negatively affecting net income growth comparisons.

Company Guidance

Management upgraded 2026 net income guidance to above €10.0bn and raised 2026 net interest income guidance to "well above €15.0bn," expecting Q3 NII growth and a marked acceleration in Q4 that should provide a strong starting point for 2027; loan growth is expected to remain positive at the current run rate (loans +5% YoY in H1) with 2027 budget top‑down guidance of ~2–5%. Reported H1 metrics: net income €5.6bn (Q2 €2.8bn), H1 net income +6% YoY (Q2 +7% YoY), EPS +9% YoY, annualized ROE 20% and ROTCE 25%; management plans to return €9.4bn to shareholders in 2026 including a €3.8bn interim dividend in November. Other key figures cited: customer financial assets >€1.5tn, deposits +7%, AUM gross inflows +7% (AUM +€49bn), cost/income ratio 35.9% (operating costs -1%), annualized cost of risk 20bps, NPLs/bad loans near 0 with high coverage, CET1 ~13.1% (noting >13.8% including DTA and a commitment to stay >13% through 2026; post‑MPS roughly 14–14.5%), tech investment €6bn, planned hires >13,000 (including 6,800 from Monte dei Paschi), estimated MPS synergies €2.9bn, a target of €2.0tn customer financial assets by 2029 and >€16bn net income in 2029; management also noted forward rates 50–70bp above plan could add ~€500–600m to 2029 NII and the replicating portfolio contributing ~€500m in 2027 and ~€300m in 2028–29.

Intesa Sanpaolo Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial health is strong, highlighted by expanding profit margins, excellent top-line growth, and a drastically improved debt-to-equity ratio of 1.02. While historical cash flows have shown volatility, recent stabilization and a high free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.99 underscore sound operational management.

Income Statement

88Very Positive

Balance Sheet

85Very Positive

Cash Flow

72Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	20.09B	46.03B	44.81B	41.01B	25.44B	24.38B
Gross Profit	24.61B	34.29B	28.29B	25.42B	21.57B	21.90B
EBITDA	15.03B	14.38B	13.77B	12.40B	7.76B	6.77B
Net Income	9.88B	9.47B	8.67B	7.72B	4.38B	4.18B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	992.26B	959.48B	933.28B	963.57B	975.68B	1.07T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	37.16B	37.85B	99.87B	98.83B	122.09B	147.09B
Total Debt	62.03B	139.31B	146.57B	142.13B	98.45B	101.22B
Total Liabilities	923.14B	894.13B	867.96B	899.44B	913.86B	1.00T
Stockholders Equity	68.99B	57.50B	65.18B	63.96B	61.10B	63.77B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0	17.61B	-41.86B	-18.99B	100.43B	6.91B
Operating Cash Flow	0	17.87B	-40.19B	-17.34B	102.28B	8.80B
Investing Cash Flow	0	-33.95B	-1.25B	-588.00M	-538.00M	-2.23B
Financing Cash Flow	0	13.41B	-7.19B	-5.59B	-3.52B	-5.59B

Intesa Sanpaolo Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price40.22

Price Trends

50DMA44.07Negative

100DMA44.05Negative

200DMA41.81Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-1.23Negative

RSI38.06Neutral

STOCH34.02Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ISNPY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 40.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.72, below the 50-day MA of 44.07, and below the 200-day MA of 41.81, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ISNPY.

Intesa Sanpaolo Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

ISNPY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ISNPY	80Outperform	$113.99B	10.63	15.91%	6.53%	1.06%	15.61%
ING	73Outperform	$88.10B	11.97	13.48%	4.85%	11.88%	22.51%
LYG	70Outperform	$71.64B	9.74	13.09%	4.27%	1.06%	75.52%
NWG	70Outperform	$61.37B	8.00	15.79%	5.99%	6.17%	16.21%
Sector *	68Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
BBVA	65Neutral	$129.47B	10.58	20.16%	4.69%	14.69%	18.60%
SAN	59Neutral	$164.55B	9.36	15.04%	2.41%	21.16%	27.88%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ISNPY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
ISNPY	Intesa Sanpaolo Spa	39.99	2.48	6.61%
BBVA	Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria	23.94	4.94	25.99%
ING	Ing Groep N.V.	31.38	7.24	29.97%
LYG	Lloyds Banking Group	5.04	0.57	12.65%
NWG	Natwest Group Plc	15.76	1.37	9.53%
SAN	Banco Santander US	11.46	1.63	16.53%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 30, 2026

Intesa Sanpaolo AI Stock Analysis