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Innventure
(NASDAQ:INV)
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Rating:42Neutral
Price Target:
$0.29
▼(-80.98% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/09/26
INV’s score is primarily held down by very weak financial performance—extreme negative margins and large ongoing cash burn—pointing to continued funding needs. Technicals reinforce the risk profile, with the price well below key moving averages and weak momentum. Earnings-call updates added pressure due to suspended revenue guidance and delayed breakeven timing, partially offset by third-party product validation and corporate actions aimed at cost control and financing flexibility.
Positive Factors
Validated cooling performance
Independent testing supports a tangible performance and efficiency advantage for Accelsius technology. Cooler GPUs, lower coolant flow, and additional thermal headroom could improve data-center density and operating economics, strengthening the product’s credibility with hyperscalers, chip makers, and server partners.
Negative Factors
Severe cash burn and losses
The scale of operating and free-cash-flow losses indicates that Innventure is not currently self-funding its operations. Persistent cash outflows can consume available liquidity, constrain investment in portfolio companies, and increase reliance on external financing before the business reaches sustainable profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Validated cooling performance
Independent testing supports a tangible performance and efficiency advantage for Accelsius technology. Cooler GPUs, lower coolant flow, and additional thermal headroom could improve data-center density and operating economics, strengthening the product’s credibility with hyperscalers, chip makers, and server partners.
Read all positive factors
Innventure (INV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$23.42M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)8.23M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.87
Revenue Growth95.42%
EPS Growth73.91%
CountryUS
Employees169
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.90
Shares Outstanding86,756,510
10 Day Avg. Volume7,669,433
30 Day Avg. Volume8,227,005
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.11
Price to Sales (P/S)110.64
P/FCF Ratio-2.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap28.66
Enterprise Value/Revenue178.85
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-30.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-5.25
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.50Price Target Upside259.48% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.8
Revenue Forecast (FY)$32.67M
Innventure Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Innventure, Inc. identifies, funds, and operates companies with a focus on sustainable technology solutions acquired or licensed from multinational corporations. Innventure, Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida....
How the Company Makes Money
Innventure’s revenue model is not described in sufficient detail in publicly available, company-specific sources to provide a factual breakdown of how it makes money (e.g., recurring revenue vs. milestone payments vs. equity monetization). null...
Innventure Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed important technical and strategic progress — notably an independent third-party validation showing meaningful thermal and efficiency advantages, growing AeroFlexx pipeline, and focused commercial milestones — but these positives were offset by material near-term financial and market-adoption challenges: revenue lumpiness, widening losses, a notable canceled site for a key order (DarkNX), suspension of revenue guidance and removal of the 2028 consolidated positive cash flow target. Management is shifting to milestone-based reporting, tightening capital discipline, and pursuing large-customer engagement (hyperscalers, chip makers, OEMs) as the path to scaled adoption. Overall, the call balanced demonstrable long-term opportunity against significant short-term execution and timing risks.Positive Updates
Independent Third-Party Technical Validation
In July an independent integrator benchmarked a Dell PowerEdge XE9680L with eight-way NVIDIA B200 GPUs retrofitted with Accelsius cold plates. Results: GPUs ran 9–14°C cooler at the system level, used ~1/3 of the coolant flow at the chip, and provided ~9°C headroom versus single-phase at 50°C facility water. Accelsius claims this enables equivalent single-phase performance at ~54°C facility water (vs ~45°C), and Jacobs reference analysis suggests ~5% more GPUs within the same power envelope.
Negative Updates
Revenue Lumpy and Sequential Decline
Consolidated revenue fell sequentially from $1.4M in Q1 to $1.0M in Q2 (≈-28.6% quarter-over-quarter) despite a year-over-year increase from $0.5M (≈+100% Y/Y), highlighting volatile, low current revenue base and lumpiness tied to adoption cadence.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Independent Third-Party Technical Validation
In July an independent integrator benchmarked a Dell PowerEdge XE9680L with eight-way NVIDIA B200 GPUs retrofitted with Accelsius cold plates. Results: GPUs ran 9–14°C cooler at the system level, used ~1/3 of the coolant flow at the chip, and provided ~9°C headroom versus single-phase at 50°C facility water. Accelsius claims this enables equivalent single-phase performance at ~54°C facility water (vs ~45°C), and Jacobs reference analysis suggests ~5% more GPUs within the same power envelope.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company suspended forward revenue targets for Accelsius (previously expecting to exit the year near cash‑flow breakeven at an annualized revenue run rate of ~ $100M) and will instead report progress against four leading milestones — chip‑maker reference designs, server OEM/ODM co‑development, an executed hyperscaler statement of work, and continued third‑party thermal benchmarks — after de‑booking the DarkNX order from the 2026 forecast; Innventure no longer expects consolidated positive cash flow in 2028 and says Accelsius’ breakeven timing now extends beyond this year. Q2 FY2026 consolidated revenue was $1.0M (Accelsius $0.9M, ~96% of total), down from $1.4M in Q1 and up from $0.5M a year ago; net loss was $34.9M (adjusted EBITDA loss $22.6M versus $18.4M in Q1), G&A was $14.5M (down 22% YoY), cash and restricted cash totaled $46.5M (vs. $60.4M at Q1 end, which included $5M restricted), year‑to‑date cash used in operations was $59.5M and financing generated $41.6M, and the company raised ~ $13M via SEP draws at an average price of $6.21 while repaying convertible debentures. Management reiterated conviction in the two‑phase opportunity (liquid‑cooling market > $30B by 2030, two‑phase ~$9B), highlighted a third‑party benchmark showing GPUs 9–14°C cooler using ~1/3 the coolant flow (9°C headroom vs. an 84°C throttle on an eight‑way B200 at 50°C facility water) that can enable ~5% more GPUs per Jacobs reference design, and said capital will be raised opportunistically with AeroFlexx and Refinity funded increasingly at the operating‑company level to limit parent dilution.Innventure Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
9
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
44
Neutral
Cash Flow
12
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.75M | 2.06M | 1.22M | 1.12M | 942.00K | 1.85M |
| Gross Profit | -22.36M | -39.28M | -3.31M | 1.12M | 942.00K | 1.85M |
| EBITDA | -127.85M | -456.65M | -93.11M | -29.75M | -31.89M | 8.03M |
| Net Income | -113.31M | -293.32M | -78.19M | -30.84M | -32.76M | 6.66M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 574.70M | 599.19M | 905.29M | 21.56M | 27.98M | 233.81M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 41.54M | 60.45M | 11.12M | 2.58M | 7.54M | 237.36K |
| Total Debt | 26.04M | 33.39M | 28.28M | 7.41M | 5.90M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 91.88M | 115.51M | 139.00M | 40.05M | 39.17M | 19.79M |
| Stockholders Equity | 212.69M | 204.21M | 425.52M | -20.05M | -11.85M | 214.03M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -103.88M | -82.10M | -49.06M | -20.12M | -9.95M | -3.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -103.39M | -80.68M | -48.06M | -19.48M | -9.95M | -3.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.56M | -4.13M | 865.00K | -4.67M | 1.48M | 564.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 139.53M | 139.14M | 71.91M | 19.17M | 11.67M | 6.08M |
Innventure Technical Analysis
Negative
1.53
Price Trends
1.45
Negative
3.27
Negative
3.80
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.31
Negative
24.55
Positive
5.91
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For INV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.62, above the 50-day MA of 1.45, and below the 200-day MA of 3.80, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 24.55 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.91 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for INV.
Innventure Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $70.07B | 25.75 | 8.58% | 1.81% | 39.52% | -48.06% | |
70 Outperform | $17.40B | 37.34 | 18.59% | 4.95% | 29.91% | 507.73% | |
68 Neutral | $38.72B | 51.19 | 15.20% | 4.41% | 33.64% | 22.53% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
57 Neutral | $13.69B | 38.11 | 6.07% | 3.64% | -44.06% | -71.02% | |
42 Neutral | $23.42M | -0.14 | -54.53% | ― | 95.42% | 73.91% |
* Financial Sector Average
INV
Innventure
0.27
-2.98
-91.72%
APO
Apollo Global Management
118.65
-1.80
-1.49%
CG
Carlyle Group
38.42
-18.39
-32.37%
ARES
Ares Management
117.22
-20.71
-15.01%
TPG
TPG
45.26
-8.35
-15.58%
VCX
Fundrise Innovation Fund, LLC
26.81
11.92
80.05%
Innventure Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Innventure Launches Flexible $60 Million ATM Equity Program
Positive
Oct 8, 2026
On October 8, 2026, Innventure, Inc. said it had established an at-the-market equity offering program of up to $60 million in common stock and ended its standby equity purchase agreement signed in October 2023. The company noted that any stock sal...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Innventure Launches ATM Offering to Fund Accelsius Focus
Neutral
Oct 6, 2026
On October 6, 2026, Innventure, Inc. entered into an at-the-market offering agreement with Lucid Capital Markets, LLC, allowing the company to sell up to $60 million of common stock through Nasdaq or private transactions, with tiered commissions p...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Innventure refreshes board and leadership amid strategic shift
Positive
Sep 21, 2026
Innventure announced a series of board and management changes on September 18‑21, 2026, as it sharpened its strategic focus on Accelsius and tightened corporate costs. The company is reorienting its operations to prioritize growing the value...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Innventure Cancels Earnout Shares Amid Forecast Change
Neutral
Sep 15, 2026
In an August 18, 2026 letter to shareholders, Innventure’s Board of Directors announced that senior management and directors who had received earnout shares tied to a revenue milestone from an Accelsius purchase order with DarkNX would volun...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Innventure Appoints New CEO Amid Governance Leadership Shakeup
Neutral
Aug 31, 2026
Innventure announced a sweeping refresh of its board and executive leadership in late August 2026, aimed at strengthening independent oversight and tightening corporate governance. Bruce Brown, formerly Lead Independent Director, was unanimously e...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Innventure Board Details Cost Cuts and Strategic Funding Plans
Positive
Aug 19, 2026
On August 19, 2026, Innventure’s Board of Directors issued a letter to shareholders outlining a series of corporate actions intended to address concerns raised after second-quarter 2026 results and to curb parent-level spending. The measures...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.