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InnovAge Holding
(NASDAQ:INNV)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
▼(-13.00% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/24/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (strong cash flow swing, healthier leverage, narrowing losses) and a constructive earnings outlook with FY2027 growth/profitability guidance. Offsetting these positives are weak near-term price momentum (below key moving averages with bearish indicators) and limited valuation support due to negative earnings and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Participant and revenue growth
Growing participant enrollment expands InnovAge’s recurring capitated revenue base, while the 15.9% revenue increase indicates that census and reimbursement growth are translating into material scale. Management’s fiscal 2027 census and revenue targets support continued expansion over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Profitability remains fragile
Despite substantial improvement, InnovAge has not yet established consistently positive GAAP earnings or returns on equity. Near-breakeven net income leaves limited room for execution setbacks, and continued investment or operating volatility could delay the conversion of improving EBITDA into durable bottom-line profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Participant and revenue growth
Growing participant enrollment expands InnovAge’s recurring capitated revenue base, while the 15.9% revenue increase indicates that census and reimbursement growth are translating into material scale. Management’s fiscal 2027 census and revenue targets support continued expansion over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
InnovAge Holding Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Capitation Revenue Breakdown
Analyzes revenue generated from capitation agreements, highlighting the company's ability to manage costs effectively while providing care. This metric indicates financial stability and efficiency in delivering healthcare services under fixed payment models.
Analyzes revenue generated from capitation agreements, highlighting the company's ability to manage costs effectively while providing care. This metric indicates financial stability and efficiency in delivering healthcare services under fixed payment models.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyInnovAge Holding (INNV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.24B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)687.04K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.66
Revenue Growth15.93%
EPS Growth91.65%
CountryUS
Employees2,500
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.16
Shares Outstanding136,451,430
10 Day Avg. Volume791,764
30 Day Avg. Volume687,037
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio6.93
Price to Book (P/B)6.83
Price to Sales (P/S)1.62
P/FCF Ratio31.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.29
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.62
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.58
Enterprise Value/Ebitda51.30
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.00Price Target Upside9.89% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.08B
InnovAge Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
InnovAge Holding Corp. manages and provides a range of medical and ancillary services for seniors in need of care and support to live independently in its homes and communities. It manages its business through Program of All-Inclusive Care for the...
How the Company Makes Money
InnovAge primarily makes money by operating PACE programs and receiving capitated payments to cover the full spectrum of care for enrolled participants. Under the PACE model, InnovAge contracts with government payors—principally Medicare and Medic...
InnovAge Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 08, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive overall. Management reported substantial improvement in adjusted EBITDA, revenue, census, center-level margins, net loss and de novo losses, supported by operational improvements, lower external provider cost per participant and a stronger balance sheet. The company also provided fiscal 2027 growth and profitability guidance above fiscal 2026 levels and highlighted investments in technology, AI, participant experience and expansion opportunities. Offsetting concerns included one-time legal accruals, higher operating expenses, a sequential decline in quarterly adjusted EBITDA, seasonal third-quarter census softness and a more moderate and still-unfinalized rate environment, particularly in California and Colorado.Positive Updates
Exceptional Fiscal 2026 Performance
Management described fiscal 2026 as an exceptional year and a key milestone in the company’s transformation. Adjusted EBITDA increased approximately 175% compared with fiscal 2025, and management said InnovAge is ahead of schedule toward its 10-plus percent long-term adjusted EBITDA margin target.
Negative Updates
One-Time Legal Accruals Affected Net Income
Management said InnovAge would have generated strong net income for fiscal 2026, but net income was ultimately impacted by one-time legal accruals. Corporate, general and administrative expenses increased 36.4% to $166.5 million, primarily due in part to a $36.8 million net increase in litigation and settlement expenses related mainly to accruals for various legal matters.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Exceptional Fiscal 2026 Performance
Management described fiscal 2026 as an exceptional year and a key milestone in the company’s transformation. Adjusted EBITDA increased approximately 175% compared with fiscal 2025, and management said InnovAge is ahead of schedule toward its 10-plus percent long-term adjusted EBITDA margin target.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For fiscal 2027, InnovAge is targeting ending census of approximately 8,625 to 8,850 participants, representing census growth of approximately 5% to 7.5%, member months in the range of 101,000 to 102,500, total revenue of approximately $1.05 billion to $1.085 billion, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $105 million to $115 million, and de novo losses in the range of $0.4 million to $0.8 million; guidance assumes a Medicare rate increase of 1.5% to 2% and low single-digit rate increases for Medicaid, with county rate increases adjusted for the continuing transition of the V28 risk adjustment model resulting in a net rate increase of approximately 1.5% to 2.0%, and effective January 1, a 50-50 blend of the V22 and V28 payment models.InnovAge Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 989.71M | 853.70M | 763.86M | 688.09M | 698.64M |
| Gross Profit | 206.62M | 584.79M | 132.06M | 101.29M | 135.37M |
| EBITDA | 87.42M | 3.36M | 1.15M | -33.85M | 9.21M |
| Net Income | -2.54M | -30.31M | -21.34M | -40.67M | -6.52M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 557.39M | 557.23M | 579.84M | 547.66M | 562.87M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 141.33M | 105.92M | 102.79M | 102.78M | 184.45M |
| Total Debt | 86.95M | 101.08M | 113.03M | 113.03M | 84.81M |
| Total Liabilities | 288.62M | 294.32M | 280.03M | 247.85M | 209.13M |
| Stockholders Equity | 235.60M | 234.97M | 269.26M | 269.26M | 332.36M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 50.41M | 26.60M | -44.81M | -44.81M | -10.94M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 64.71M | 32.87M | -36.90M | -36.90M | 27.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -12.34M | -5.55M | -26.37M | -26.37M | -40.24M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -18.53M | -19.08M | -7.03M | -7.03M | -6.32M |
InnovAge Holding Technical Analysis
Negative
10.92
Price Trends
10.35
Negative
10.08
Negative
8.79
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.45
Negative
36.12
Neutral
78.93
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For INNV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.60, above the 50-day MA of 10.35, and above the 200-day MA of 8.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for INNV.
InnovAge Holding Risk Analysis
InnovAge Holding disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. InnovAge Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
InnovAge Holding Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $2.14B | 20.13 | 9.57% | ― | 15.88% | 25.01% | |
70 Outperform | $2.67B | 9.23 | 150.20% | ― | 19.52% | 1337.90% | |
64 Neutral | $1.24B | -439.61 | -1.05% | ― | 15.93% | 91.65% | |
64 Neutral | $1.86B | 45.37 | 5.09% | ― | 58.91% | 58.36% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $1.38B | -5.36 | -119.35% | 0.23% | 0.32% | 23.86% | |
49 Neutral | $35.94M | -0.15 | 160.54% | ― | 2.81% | 26.63% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
INNV
InnovAge Holding
9.10
3.55
63.96%
ADUS
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114.33
1.75
1.55%
ASTH
Astrana Health
37.55
8.23
28.07%
AGL
Agilon Health
82.39
60.11
269.84%
AVAH
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings
12.25
3.43
38.89%
PIII
P3 Health Partners
4.95
-3.70
-42.77%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.