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Agilon Health
(NYSE:AGL)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$111.00
▲(269.38% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/04/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (losses, negative gross profit, and sustained cash burn). Strong technical momentum provides meaningful support, while the earnings call adds moderate positives from raised outlook and improved profitability signals but is tempered by membership/revenue declines and reserving uncertainty. Valuation remains constrained by negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Value-based care platform
Agilon’s core model of partnering with physician groups to manage capitated Medicare populations creates durable, recurring revenue streams and deep operational integration. Long-term contracts and aligned incentives with PCPs foster stickiness, better care coordination, and defensible market position in value-based care.
Negative Factors
Persistent losses
Sustained negative gross profit and net losses indicate core service revenues are not covering medical and operating costs. This undermines long-term profitability potential and requires either structural cost reductions, better risk selection, or material revenue enhancements to restore durable margin sustainability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Value-based care platform
Agilon’s core model of partnering with physician groups to manage capitated Medicare populations creates durable, recurring revenue streams and deep operational integration. Long-term contracts and aligned incentives with PCPs foster stickiness, better care coordination, and defensible market position in value-based care.
Read all positive factors
Agilon Health Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows income generated from each business segment, providing insight into diverse revenue streams and strategic focus areas.
Shows income generated from each business segment, providing insight into diverse revenue streams and strategic focus areas.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAgilon Health (AGL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.79B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)471.92K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.49
Revenue Growth-2.82%
EPS Growth-45.70%
CountryUS
Employees1,076
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-22.70
Shares Outstanding16,683,786
10 Day Avg. Volume279,443
30 Day Avg. Volume471,917
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.25
Price to Sales (P/S)0.05
P/FCF Ratio-2.40
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.92
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.28
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-10.28
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-4.81
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$57.15Price Target Upside90.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.84
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.70B
Agilon Health Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Agilon Health, Inc. provides healthcare solutions specifically designed for older adults, delivered through local primary care physicians throughout the United States. As of December 31, 2021, the company served an approximate total of 238,000 sen...
How the Company Makes Money
Agilon makes money by taking on and managing financial risk for the total cost of care of a defined patient population (primarily Medicare Advantage members) in partnership with local physician groups.
Key elements of the revenue model:
- Capitat...
Agilon Health Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a balanced message: strong operational execution and meaningful near-term wins (data pipeline, risk adjustment upside, improved medical margin, scaled clinical programs and a sizable Q1 adjusted EBITDA beat) were tempered by structural challenges — notably a sizable year-over-year MA membership decline, a YoY revenue decline, Part D reserving uncertainty, cautious early-year cost recording, and conservative full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance. Management emphasized disciplined, sustainable growth and quality-driven improvements rather than aggressive expansion, resulting in positive operational momentum but continued near-term prudence and uncertainty.Positive Updates
Quarterly Outperformance vs Guidance
Q1 revenue ~ $1.42B beat the top end of guidance driven by higher-than-expected risk adjustment revenue and a new full-risk contract; management increased full-year 2026 guidance (midpoint revenue now ~$5.7B).
Negative Updates
Medicare Advantage Membership Decline
Medicare Advantage membership decreased to 426,000 in Q1 2026 from 491,000 in Q1 2025 — a decline of ~13.2% year-over-year — driven by measured growth approach, prior market exits, and disciplined payer contracting.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Outperformance vs Guidance
Q1 revenue ~ $1.42B beat the top end of guidance driven by higher-than-expected risk adjustment revenue and a new full-risk contract; management increased full-year 2026 guidance (midpoint revenue now ~$5.7B).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Agilon raised its full-year 2026 outlook at the midpoint to approximately $5.7 billion of revenue, about $375 million of medical margin and roughly $25 million of adjusted EBITDA, while guiding Q2 (midpoint) to $1.45 billion revenue, $123 million medical margin and $20 million adjusted EBITDA; in Q1 the company reported ~ $1.42 billion revenue, $149 million medical margin, $54 million adjusted EBITDA and $27 million ACO REACH adjusted EBITDA, with Medicare Advantage membership of 426,000 and ACO REACH membership of 110,000. Key assumptions include a revised estimated risk‑score lift of ~1.5% for the year (vs. prior 0.4%) and a roughly $50 million annual risk‑adjustment benefit, a new full‑risk contract modeled at ~$200 million of revenue (breakeven in year one), a maintained net cost‑trend outlook of ~7% for 2026 (Q1 recorded trend 7.4% with 2025 cost trend now estimated at 6.2% versus 6.5 prior), at least $125 million of year‑end cash (with $47 million off‑balance‑sheet ACO cash) and Part D exposure under 15%; management also referenced a 5.33% CMS effective growth rate for 2027 and a 1.12% normalization factor.Agilon Health Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
22
Negative
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.82B | 5.93B | 6.06B | 4.32B | 2.39B | 1.52B |
| Gross Profit | -159.48M | -188.61M | 4.84M | 69.67M | 111.36M | 65.74M |
| EBITDA | -340.64M | -368.86M | -218.19M | -167.64M | -72.41M | -362.16M |
| Net Income | -373.49M | -405.35M | -260.15M | -262.60M | -106.55M | -406.49M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.50B | 1.27B | 1.73B | 1.74B | 1.70B | 1.59B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 231.41M | 285.14M | 405.60M | 495.10M | 877.20M | 1.05B |
| Total Debt | 33.40M | 36.81M | 43.96M | 52.31M | 52.57M | 59.61M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.32B | 1.14B | 1.26B | 1.08B | 656.86M | 494.66M |
| Stockholders Equity | 181.43M | 126.73M | 470.95M | 661.84M | 1.04B | 1.09B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -76.61M | -119.00M | -71.03M | -187.01M | -163.47M | -161.59M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -50.05M | -105.76M | -57.78M | -156.20M | -130.81M | -148.16M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 130.97M | 88.61M | 139.89M | -44.02M | -444.39M | -90.51M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.98M | -2.99M | -2.58M | -193.13M | 28.06M | 1.15B |
Agilon Health Technical Analysis
Positive
30.05
Price Trends
76.40
Positive
45.39
Positive
33.25
Positive
Market Momentum
9.74
Positive
56.71
Neutral
70.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 30.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 105.82, below the 50-day MA of 76.40, and below the 200-day MA of 33.25, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 9.74 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGL.
Agilon Health Risk Analysis
Agilon Health disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Agilon Health reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Agilon Health Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $1.26B | -37.75 | -4.98% | ― | 19.87% | 79.93% | |
61 Neutral | $78.25M | -0.29 | 184.97% | ― | -0.87% | 10.51% | |
59 Neutral | $426.77M | -4.33 | -27.10% | ― | -20.37% | -479.68% | |
59 Neutral | $1.61B | -40.04 | -9.20% | ― | 14.13% | 62.92% | |
58 Neutral | $1.79B | -4.89 | -146.01% | ― | -2.82% | -45.70% | |
57 Neutral | $71.03M | 3.77 | -22.91% | ― | -5.63% | -29.34% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
AGL
Agilon Health
107.18
47.68
80.13%
AMN
AMN Healthcare Services
32.37
10.38
47.20%
CCRN
Cross Country Healthcare
13.21
0.04
0.30%
INNV
InnovAge Holding
11.85
7.90
200.00%
PIII
P3 Health Partners
10.80
4.46
70.35%
BTMD
biote
1.89
-2.23
-54.13%
Agilon Health Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Agilon Health Shareholders Reelect Directors and Approve Auditor
Positive
Jun 3, 2026
At its June 2, 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, Agilon Health shareholders elected Diana McKenzie, Karen McLoughlin, and Ronald Williams as Class II directors to serve on the board until the 2029 annual meeting. The voting results show solid i...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Agilon Health Names Tim O’Rourke as New CEO
Positive
Apr 27, 2026
On April 24, 2026, agilon health appointed healthcare veteran Tim O’Rourke as its next Chief Executive Officer and President, effective May 7, 2026, and named him to the board as a Class III director. He succeeds Executive Chairman Ronald A....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.