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Industrial & Commercial Bank of China
(OTC:IDCBY)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$22.00
▲(15.36% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/31/26
The score is driven primarily by solid profitability and cash support, tempered by a materially higher leverage profile and some volatility in margins/cash flows. Technicals are constructive with price above major moving averages, though momentum looks stretched. Valuation is a clear positive (low P/E and strong dividend), while the earnings call reinforced steady-growth guidance but acknowledged NIM pressure, credit-risk pockets, and near-term dilution risk.
Positive Factors
Strong profitability and cash generation
Positive operating and free cash flow provide tangible support for reported earnings and give ICBC capacity to fund lending, dividends, and strategic investment. Although cash movements are variable, the current conversion profile indicates that profitability is generally backed by internally generated funds.
Negative Factors
Materially higher leverage
The sharp increase in debt-to-equity makes the balance sheet more sensitive to credit losses, funding costs, and changes in financial conditions. Even with steady returns on equity, higher leverage reduces financial flexibility and can constrain the bank's ability to absorb stress or pursue additional growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong profitability and cash generation
Positive operating and free cash flow provide tangible support for reported earnings and give ICBC capacity to fund lending, dividends, and strategic investment. Although cash movements are variable, the current conversion profile indicates that profitability is generally backed by internally generated funds.
Read all positive factors
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$441.73B
Dividend Yield4.69%
Average Volume (3M)27.85K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.6
Beta (1Y)0.05
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees409,758
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)20.20
Shares Outstanding4,339,702,600
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume27,847
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.00
Price to Book (P/B)0.50
Price to Sales (P/S)1.35
P/FCF Ratio4.91
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.49
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.47
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.67
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.56
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)3.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)$130.91B
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited (ICBC), alongside its affiliated entities, delivers a comprehensive suite of banking products and financial services to clients within the People's Republic of China and across international markets....
How the Company Makes Money
ICBC primarily makes money through (1) net interest income and (2) fee and commission income, with additional contributions from trading/investment results and other operating income. Net interest income is typically the largest driver: the bank g...
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 31, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was predominantly positive. ICBC reported 9.2% operating income growth, 6% net profit growth, stable NIM, expanding loans and deposits, improving overall asset quality, strong fee-based business momentum and continued investment in AI and strategic businesses. Management also expressed confidence in full-year performance and approximately 6% loan growth. The main cautions were expected NIM and loan-yield pressure, retail and inclusive finance asset-quality risks, uncertainty around future non-interest income growth, external market volatility and limited near-term dilution from the planned private placement.Positive Updates
Strong First Nine-Month Profitability
Group operating income reached CNY 667.14 billion, up 9.2% year-on-year, while net profit was CNY 288.28 billion, up 6% year-on-year. Management said earnings growth accelerated compared with the first half and expressed confidence in carrying the steady performance through the full year.
Negative Updates
Expected NIM Pressure Beyond This Year
Management expects NIM to stabilize and find a bottom this year if policy rates remain stable, but said there will be slightly narrowing pressure next year. The temporary benefit from lower liability costs is weakening as high-rate time deposits mature, while the rising share of bond investments with longer repricing cycles is expected to keep putting downward pressure on asset yields.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong First Nine-Month Profitability
Group operating income reached CNY 667.14 billion, up 9.2% year-on-year, while net profit was CNY 288.28 billion, up 6% year-on-year. Management said earnings growth accelerated compared with the first half and expressed confidence in carrying the steady performance through the full year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ICBC said that if policy rates remain stable, NIM is expected to stable and find a bottom this year with slightly narrowing pressure next year; full year loan growth is expected to be around 6%, consistently above the national average and GDP growth, while next year’s credit environment will continue with slowing growth while improving quality. The Q4 bond market is expected to broadly maintain a range bound pattern, with project to Q4 government bond issuance of CNY 3.8 trillion and local government bond issuance CNY 2 trillion, and the bank’s maximum EVE change is expected to decline by 0.35 percentage points following capital injection. The bank is confident in carrying forward steady performance in both operating revenue and net profit for the full year, while fee income is expected to remain stable; time deposits repricing volume is similar to that of this year, retail asset quality is expected to remain manageable, mortgage asset quality is expected to gradually recover, business loan NPL ratio will remain stable, and inclusive finance asset quality will remain stable and controllable overall. Eligible subsidized mortgages represented 30% of all new loans and 50% of all loans in numbers from the first 20 days of October, and the bank expects its private placement’s dilution impact to be offset relatively quickly, with EPS dilution fully offset if 2026 attributed net profit growth reaches 3.3% year-on-year.Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.05T | 1.49T | 660.39B | 838.05B | 913.56B | 939.89B |
| Gross Profit | 576.75B | 833.50B | 817.28B | 838.05B | 913.56B | 939.89B |
| EBITDA | 432.97B | 442.71B | 456.37B | 451.72B | 14.32B | 439.75B |
| Net Income | 363.85B | 358.52B | 365.86B | 363.99B | 361.13B | 348.34B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 57.09T | 53.51T | 48.82T | 44.70T | 39.61T | 35.17T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.52T | 4.74T | 4.75T | 5.30T | 4.74T | 4.19T |
| Total Debt | 11.86T | 10.28T | 2.04T | 1.90T | 5.04T | 4.64T |
| Total Liabilities | 52.98T | 49.51T | 44.83T | 40.92T | 1.43T | 1.28T |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.08T | 3.98T | 3.97T | 3.76T | 3.50T | 3.26T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 271.39B | 409.03B | 462.55B | 499.19B | 778.87B | 339.02B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 317.71B | 456.67B | 505.85B | 530.39B | 802.00B | 360.88B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.19T | -2.42T | -1.47T | -891.85B | -910.62B | -674.56B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.21T | 35.01B | 1.29T | 3.82T | 3.19T | -11.55B |
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Technical Analysis
Positive
19.07
Price Trends
19.06
Positive
18.32
Positive
17.42
Positive
Market Momentum
0.17
Negative
65.46
Neutral
100.17
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IDCBY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.21, above the 50-day MA of 19.06, and above the 200-day MA of 17.42, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 100.17 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IDCBY.
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $441.73B | 8.58 | 9.18% | 4.69% | ― | ― | |
70 Outperform | $895.92B | 14.11 | 17.91% | 1.82% | 8.74% | 18.04% | |
68 Neutral | $246.21B | 14.52 | 12.34% | 3.11% | 7.56% | 43.28% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $293.14B | 11.03 | 14.16% | 4.38% | -1.12% | 62.58% | |
60 Neutral | $346.20B | 11.74 | 10.69% | 2.32% | -1.02% | 14.91% | |
58 Neutral | $205.72B | 11.75 | 9.15% | 2.01% | 4.73% | 44.35% |
* Financial Sector Average
IDCBY
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China
20.13
5.15
34.40%
BAC
Bank of America
50.01
-2.43
-4.64%
C
Citigroup
122.64
22.54
22.52%
HSBC
HSBC Holdings
85.42
18.05
26.79%
JPM
JPMorgan Chase
337.04
33.54
11.05%
MUFG
Mitsubishi UFJ
21.56
6.39
42.12%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.