Hub Group (HUBG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.05B
• Dividend Yield: 1.48%
• Average Volume (3M): 667.12K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.11
• Revenue Growth: -5.37%
• EPS Growth: -11.26%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,386
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 0.45
• Shares Outstanding: 60,644,676
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 743,478
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 667,118
• PEG Ratio: -0.74
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.68
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.82
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.15
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.62
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.50
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.51
• 1Y Price Target: $40.00
• Price Target Upside: 18.06% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $38.00 ▲(12.16% Upside)

Hub Group's overall stock score reflects a stable financial position with strong balance sheet metrics but challenges in profitability and growth. The earnings call highlighted strategic initiatives and cost reductions, but revenue declines and uncertain demand trends pose risks. Technical indicators show mixed momentum, and the valuation suggests the stock may be overvalued. These factors collectively result in a moderate score, indicating potential but also caution.

Positive Factors

Intermodal Volume Growth

Growth in intermodal volume, especially in high-demand areas like Mexico and refrigerated segments, strengthens Hub Group's market position and enhances its competitive edge in logistics.

Cost Reduction Program Success

Effective cost management through an expanded reduction program improves operational efficiency, supporting margin sustainability and long-term profitability.

Final Mile Division Growth

Significant growth in the Final Mile division indicates strong demand for last-mile solutions, enhancing Hub Group's revenue potential and service diversification.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

A decline in revenue reflects challenges in maintaining top-line growth, which could impact long-term financial performance and market competitiveness.

Logistics Operating Income Decline

Decreased operating income in the logistics segment suggests operational challenges and market pressures, potentially affecting profitability and strategic growth.

Uncertain Demand Trends

Uncertainty in demand trends poses risks to revenue stability and planning, potentially impacting Hub Group's ability to forecast and adapt to market changes.

Hub Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hub Group, Inc., a supply chain solutions provider, offers transportation and logistics management services in North America. The company's transportation services include intermodal, truckload, less-than-truckload, flatbed, temperature-controlled, and dedicated and regional trucking, as well as final mile, railcar, small parcel, and international transportation. Its logistics services comprise full outsource logistics solution, transportation management, freight consolidation, warehousing and fulfillment, final mile delivery, and parcel and international services. The company also provides dry van, expedited, less-than-truckload, refrigerated, and flatbed truck brokerage services. It offers a fleet of approximately 1,000 tractors and 4,600 trailers to its customers, as well as the driver staffing, management, and infrastructure. The company serves a range of industries, including retail, consumer products, and durable goods. As of December 31, 2021, it owned approximately 43,750 dry, 53-foot containers, as well as 450 refrigerated, 53-foot containers; and leased approximately 250 dry, 53-foot containers. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Oak Brook, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Hub Group generates revenue primarily through its logistics and transportation services. The company operates on a fee-for-service model, where it charges customers for the transportation of goods and for providing logistics services. Key revenue streams include intermodal freight transportation, which involves the use of multiple modes of transport to deliver goods efficiently, and dedicated trucking services, where Hub Group provides exclusive capacity for specific customers. The company also earns revenue from its logistics solutions, which encompass supply chain management, warehousing, and distribution services. Significant partnerships with railroads and trucking companies enhance Hub Group's operational efficiency and service offerings, contributing to its earnings. Additionally, the company's focus on technology and data analytics improves service delivery and customer satisfaction, further driving revenue growth.

Hub Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Hub Group demonstrates a stable financial position with strong balance sheet metrics, though profitability and growth prospects face challenges. The income statement reflects pressure on revenue and margins, while the cash flow statement suggests good liquidity but highlights potential cash flow management areas for improvement. The company is well-positioned with low leverage, but needs to focus on enhancing profitability and growth to improve its financial performance.

Income Statement

The gross profit margin for the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) is strong at 64.1%, though it has declined from the previous year, indicating pressure on cost management. The TTM net profit margin is 2.6%, showing a positive bottom line, but below industry averages. Revenue growth has been negative over recent years, with a significant decrease of 28.4% from 2022 to 2023, suggesting challenges in sustaining top-line growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are modest at 3.6% and 8.1% respectively, reflecting operational profitability but also highlighting areas for efficiency improvement.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.28, which is relatively low and indicates a strong balance sheet with less leverage risk. The return on equity (ROE) for the TTM is 5.97%, indicating efficient use of equity but room for improvement. The equity ratio is solid at 59.8%, suggesting a healthy balance between equity and total assets, providing financial stability.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has shown volatility, with a decrease in the TTM but overall positive free cash flow, providing liquidity for the company. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.75, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is at 1.25, which is positive but reflects a decrease compared to previous years, suggesting potential cash flow management challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.78B	3.95B	4.20B	5.34B	4.23B	3.50B
Gross Profit	4.74B	3.37B	503.66M	889.50M	599.64M	425.44M
EBITDA	314.50M	339.57M	391.86M	610.14M	349.91M	230.50M
Net Income	100.02M	103.99M	167.53M	356.95M	171.47M	73.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.80B	2.87B	2.94B	2.81B	2.44B	2.11B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	137.05M	98.25M	187.27M	286.64M	159.78M	124.51M
Total Debt	462.62M	508.51M	575.51M	451.74M	322.28M	318.58M
Total Liabilities	1.07B	1.18B	1.30B	1.21B	1.10B	947.47M
Stockholders Equity	1.67B	1.64B	1.63B	1.60B	1.34B	1.16B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	125.42M	143.57M	282.09M	239.02M	119.88M	59.65M
Operating Cash Flow	175.49M	194.42M	422.16M	458.16M	252.84M	174.95M
Investing Cash Flow	-57.95M	-53.33M	-373.16M	-278.87M	-210.13M	-196.86M
Financing Cash Flow	-174.10M	-201.33M	-148.41M	-52.46M	-7.41M	-22.30M

Hub Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 33.88
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HUBG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 33.88 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.77, below the 50-day MA of 35.75, and below the 200-day MA of 37.14, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.58 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.79 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HUBG.

Hub Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FDX	74 Outperform	$56.52B	14.00	14.84%	2.34%	1.14%	4.99%
CHRW	69 Neutral	$15.92B	30.20	29.94%	1.84%	-2.55%	59.07%
LSTR	67 Neutral	$4.22B	25.52	20.15%	2.90%	-2.10%	-22.19%
HUBG	64 Neutral	$2.05B	20.30	6.03%	1.48%	-5.37%	-11.26%
JBHT	64 Neutral	$12.84B	24.11	15.15%	1.30%	-2.24%	-5.43%
XPO	61 Neutral	$14.95B	43.88	19.37%	―	-0.11%	-4.28%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

Hub Group Corporate Events

Hub Group Enters New Credit Agreement with BMO

On June 20, 2025, Hub Group, Inc. entered into a new Credit Agreement with Bank of Montreal and several financial institutions, replacing the 2022 Credit Agreement. The company successfully terminated the previous agreement without incurring any early termination penalties and repaid all outstanding borrowings, which may enhance its financial flexibility and strengthen its market position.