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Hertz Global (HTZ)
NASDAQ:HTZ
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Hertz Global (HTZ) AI Stock Analysis

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HTZ

Hertz Global

(NASDAQ:HTZ)

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Underperform 38 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:38Underperform
Price Target:
$4.50
▼(-12.96% Downside)
Hertz Global's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its poor financial performance and bearish technical indicators. The company's high leverage, negative equity, and declining revenues pose significant risks. The technical analysis confirms a downward trend, and the valuation metrics indicate substantial risk without adequate returns. While the earnings call showed some operational improvements, these are not factored into the score due to the methodology.
Positive Factors
Operational Improvements
Achieving positive adjusted EBITDA indicates improved operational efficiency and cost management, suggesting a stronger business model moving forward.
Fleet Management
Effective fleet management and cost control enhance profitability and competitiveness, positioning Hertz well in the rental market.
Leadership Change
New leadership with extensive experience can drive strategic initiatives and improve legal and regulatory compliance, strengthening long-term governance.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage and negative equity pose risks to financial stability, limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns.
Revenue Decline
Declining revenue impacts growth potential and may hinder investment in new opportunities, affecting long-term market position.
Cash Flow Challenges
Negative cash flow growth indicates difficulty in sustaining operations and funding future growth, affecting long-term financial health.

Hertz Global (HTZ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Hertz Global Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHertz Global Holdings, Inc. is an American car rental company that operates under the Hertz, Dollar, and Thrifty brands. The company provides a wide range of vehicle rental services, including short-term and long-term rentals, as well as leasing and fleet management solutions to both consumers and businesses. Hertz is a prominent player in the global mobility sector, catering to leisure and business travelers alike, with locations at airports, city centers, and neighborhoods worldwide.
How the Company Makes MoneyHertz generates revenue primarily through its car rental operations, which include daily and weekly rental fees from both individual customers and corporate accounts. The company also earns income from ancillary services such as insurance, GPS rentals, and fuel services. Additionally, Hertz has a significant presence in the leasing and fleet management sector, providing vehicles to businesses. Partnerships with travel and tourism companies, as well as loyalty programs, help drive customer retention and increase booking frequency, contributing further to its revenue streams.

Hertz Global Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Income Before Taxes by Segment
Income Before Taxes by Segment
Shows profitability across different business segments, highlighting which areas drive earnings and where there might be financial challenges.
Chart InsightsHertz Global's U.S. Rental Cars segment has shown a volatile recovery, with a significant turnaround in Q2 2025, moving from deep losses to a positive income. This aligns with the company's strategic focus on fleet optimization and cost management, as highlighted in their earnings call. Despite challenges like pricing pressures and recall impacts, Hertz's improved fleet utilization and strong retail vehicle sales indicate a positive trajectory. The International Rental Cars segment also returned to profitability, reflecting operational improvements. The earnings call underscores a cautiously optimistic outlook, aiming for a $1 billion adjusted corporate EBITDA by 2027.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Hertz Global Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected significant operational improvements and a positive shift in adjusted corporate EBITDA, with notable achievements in fleet management and customer satisfaction. However, these were tempered by challenges in pricing, a decline in revenue, and recall impacts. Despite these challenges, the call's sentiment leans towards optimism due to the substantial progress made.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Positive Adjusted Corporate EBITDA
For the first time in 7 quarters, Hertz delivered positive adjusted corporate EBITDA, representing a nearly $0.5 billion year-over-year improvement.
Revenue and Utilization Metrics
Achieved $2.2 billion in revenue for the quarter, with the highest fleet utilization in nearly 2 years and the highest second quarter retail vehicle sales in 5 years.
Fleet Improvement and Management
Achieved depreciation per unit of $251, well below the sub-$300 North Star target, highlighting successful fleet rotation and management strategies.
Customer Satisfaction and Loyalty
Net Promoter Score improved by 11 points year-over-year, and there was a 100% year-over-year increase in new U.S. Hertz loyalty member sign-ups.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Revenue was down 7% compared to the previous year, in part due to running a smaller fleet which was down 6% year-over-year.
Pricing Challenges
Faced challenges with pricing, as the overall market pricing was down mid- to high single digits.
Delayed Pricing Improvement
Pricing environment improved later than expected, affecting revenue and EBITDA forecasts for the year.
Recall Headwinds
Approximately 2% of the U.S. rental fleet was affected by recalls, impacting fleet availability.
Company Guidance
During Hertz Global Holdings' second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company highlighted several key metrics and progress indicators. Notably, Hertz delivered its best results in nearly two years, achieving a positive adjusted corporate EBITDA for the first time in seven quarters, marking a nearly $0.5 billion year-over-year improvement. The company reported $2.2 billion in revenue for the quarter. They exceeded their North Star target for depreciation per unit, bringing it down to $251, and achieved the highest second quarter retail vehicle sales in five years. Fleet utilization reached 83%, the highest in nearly two years, while direct operating expense per transaction day improved despite a lower year-over-year volume. Hertz is maintaining a disciplined approach to fleet management, revenue optimization, and rigorous cost management, with the fleet strategy focusing on aligning the mix to customer preferences and optimizing unit economics. The company anticipates maintaining a fleet size approximately 6% below 2024 levels through year-end and continues to work towards an adjusted corporate EBITDA of $1 billion by 2027.

Hertz Global Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Hertz Global is facing significant financial challenges across all verticals. The income statement shows declining revenues and profitability, while the balance sheet reveals high leverage and negative equity. Cash flow metrics indicate difficulties in generating and managing cash. The company needs to address these issues to improve financial health and stability.
Income Statement
30
Negative
Hertz Global's income statement reveals significant challenges. The TTM data shows a negative net profit margin of -29.58% and a declining revenue growth rate of -1.91%, indicating financial distress. The EBIT margin is also negative at -22.90%, reflecting operational inefficiencies. Although the EBITDA margin is positive at 11.88%, it is insufficient to offset the overall negative performance. The company has experienced a downward trend in revenue and profitability over the past few years.
Balance Sheet
25
Negative
The balance sheet highlights substantial financial leverage with a negative stockholders' equity, resulting in an alarming debt-to-equity ratio of -39.17 in the TTM period. This indicates a precarious financial position with high leverage risk. The return on equity is also negative, reflecting poor returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is negative, suggesting that liabilities exceed assets, which is a significant concern for financial stability.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
Cash flow analysis shows a negative free cash flow growth rate of -81.89% in the TTM period, indicating cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.70, suggesting some ability to generate cash from operations despite net losses. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting issues in converting earnings into free cash flow. Overall, cash flow management appears strained.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue8.61B9.05B9.37B8.69B7.34B5.26B
Gross Profit83.00M-251.00M1.73B3.03B2.72B-376.00M
EBITDA1.02B1.85B3.64B3.84B1.95B1.04B
Net Income-2.55B-2.86B616.00M2.06B366.00M-1.71B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets23.08B21.80B24.61B22.50B19.78B16.91B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.13B592.00M774.00M943.00M2.26B1.10B
Total Debt19.74B18.41B17.83B15.66B12.42B7.90B
Total Liabilities23.59B21.65B21.51B19.85B16.81B16.82B
Stockholders Equity-504.00M153.00M3.09B2.65B2.98B56.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-785.00M-8.40B-7.23B-8.21B-5.42B-4.69B
Operating Cash Flow1.91B2.22B2.47B2.54B1.81B953.00M
Investing Cash Flow-1.71B-2.93B-4.02B-4.23B-3.54B4.59B
Financing Cash Flow-76.00M658.00M1.31B487.00M2.85B-5.37B

Hertz Global Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price5.17
Price Trends
50DMA
5.89
Negative
100DMA
6.26
Negative
200DMA
5.63
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.30
Positive
RSI
38.09
Neutral
STOCH
37.01
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HTZ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.65, below the 50-day MA of 5.89, and below the 200-day MA of 5.63, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HTZ.

Hertz Global Risk Analysis

Hertz Global disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hertz Global reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Hertz Global Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$4.09B37.549.82%0.92%-2.34%-37.24%
$895.54M7.8119.97%0.76%30.08%32.62%
$2.82B19.3812.70%1.69%4.77%-35.44%
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
$4.38B152.901.41%2.07%11.41%-92.67%
$5.53B-2.25%-395.93%
$1.61B-350.48%-7.58%-225.06%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HTZ
Hertz Global
5.17
2.27
78.28%
CAR
Avis Budget
155.18
68.08
78.16%
WSC
WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings
22.76
-16.10
-41.43%
HRI
Herc Holdings
133.28
-73.80
-35.64%
MGRC
Mcgrath Rentcorp
114.40
0.08
0.07%
WLFC
Willis Lease Finance
129.77
-53.11
-29.04%

Hertz Global Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Hertz Global Appoints Michael Moore as COO
Positive
Oct 3, 2025

On September 30, 2025, Hertz appointed Michael Moore as Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer. Moore, with over 25 years of experience in fleet operations, has held significant roles at Delta Air Lines and Virgin Galactic. His appointment is expected to enhance operational efficiency and financial performance at Hertz.

The most recent analyst rating on (HTZ) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hertz Global stock, see the HTZ Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Hertz Global Completes $425M Notes Offering
Positive
Sep 29, 2025

On September 29, 2025, Hertz Corporation, a subsidiary of Hertz Global Holdings, completed an offering of $425 million in 5.500% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2030. This financial move includes a premium exchange price and is aimed at enhancing the company’s financial flexibility. The Notes are guaranteed by Hertz Corp.’s subsidiaries and are subject to specific conditions regarding exchange and redemption. Additionally, Hertz entered into capped call transactions to mitigate potential stock dilution, reflecting strategic financial management to bolster its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (HTZ) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hertz Global stock, see the HTZ Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Hertz Global Announces Pricing of $375M Senior Notes
Positive
Sep 25, 2025

On September 25, 2025, Hertz Corp. announced the pricing of $375 million in 5.500% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2030, with an option for initial purchasers to buy an additional $50 million. The proceeds will be used for partial redemption of existing Senior Notes due 2026 and general corporate purposes. The issuance aims to strengthen Hertz’s financial position and potentially impact its stock price through related derivative transactions.

The most recent analyst rating on (HTZ) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hertz Global stock, see the HTZ Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Hertz Global Announces $250M Exchangeable Notes Offering
Neutral
Sep 25, 2025

On September 24, 2025, Hertz Global Holdings announced that its subsidiary, The Hertz Corporation, plans to offer $250 million in Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2030 in a private offering. The proceeds from this offering will be used to fund capped call transactions and partially redeem or repurchase existing Senior Notes due 2026. This strategic financial move is expected to impact the company’s operations and market positioning by potentially affecting the market price of its common stock and the exchange price of the Notes.

The most recent analyst rating on (HTZ) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hertz Global stock, see the HTZ Stock Forecast page.

Financial DisclosuresLegal Proceedings
Hertz Global Receives $154M Settlement Distribution
Positive
Sep 23, 2025

On September 23, 2025, Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. received notice of a pro rata settlement distribution amounting to $154,054,348.07 from a class action settlement in the Automotive Parts Antitrust Litigation. This settlement is expected to impact Hertz’s financial position positively, with the distribution anticipated around September 30, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (HTZ) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hertz Global stock, see the HTZ Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Hertz Global Announces Executive VP Resignation
Neutral
Aug 22, 2025

On August 19, 2025, Hertz Global Holdings announced the resignation of Eric Leef, Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer, effective September 5, 2025. Christopher G. Berg will oversee the HR function during the transition as the company seeks a permanent successor, reflecting Hertz’s strategic succession planning.

The most recent analyst rating on (HTZ) stock is a Hold with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hertz Global stock, see the HTZ Stock Forecast page.

Hertz Global Reports Strongest Earnings in Two Years
Aug 8, 2025

Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. is a prominent car rental and mobility solutions provider, operating well-known brands like Hertz, Dollar, Thrifty, and Firefly across more than 11,000 locations in 160 countries. The company also offers used car sales through Hertz Car Sales and car-sharing services in Europe.

Hertz Earnings Call: Mixed Sentiments Amid Achievements
Aug 8, 2025

Hertz Global Holdings Inc. recently held its earnings call, revealing a mixed sentiment among stakeholders. While the company celebrated notable achievements in operational efficiency, fleet management, and customer satisfaction, concerns were raised regarding revenue growth, pricing challenges, and supply chain delays. The overall positive developments were somewhat overshadowed by a cautious outlook and a decline in revenue.

Executive/Board Changes
Hertz Global Appoints New Chief Accounting Officer
Neutral
Aug 1, 2025

On July 31, 2025, Hertz Corporation announced the appointment of Mark Kosman as Senior Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer, effective no later than September 1, 2025. Kosman, who previously held significant roles at Ford Motor Company, will receive a comprehensive compensation package including a base salary, incentive plans, and relocation assistance. Additionally, Katherine Lee Martin, the company’s Executive Vice President and General Counsel, announced her resignation effective August 15, 2025, to pursue another opportunity, with an interim general counsel to be appointed during the search for her permanent replacement.

The most recent analyst rating on (HTZ) stock is a Sell with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hertz Global stock, see the HTZ Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 23, 2025