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Harley-Davidson (HOG)
NYSE:HOG
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Harley-Davidson
(NYSE:HOG)
70Outperform
Positive Factors
Market Positioning
Reintroduction of entry level bikes supports 2026 outlook.
Strategy Changes
HOG making strategy changes to improve long term trajectory.
Negative Factors
Financial Outlook
The price target has been lowered from $29 to $28, reflecting a more cautious outlook.
Retail Performance
North America retail decreased 24.0% which was below expectations.
Shipment Decline
Shipments of 38.6K declined 33% year over year.
Harley-Davidson (HOG) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.79B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.95M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.5
Beta (1Y)0.93
Revenue Growth-17.15%
EPS Growth-40.76%
CountryUS
Employees5,900
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength59
IndustryAuto - Recreational Vehicles
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.93
Shares Outstanding123,703,390
10 Day Avg. Volume3,266,324
30 Day Avg. Volume2,949,395
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.59
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)5.80
P/FCF Ratio4.70
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.26
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.03
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$29.14Price Target Upside23.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
Harley-Davidson Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionHarley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles. The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products and Financial Services. The Motorcycles and Related Products segment designs, manufactures, and sells Harley-Davidson motorcycles, including cruiser, touring, standard, sportbike, and dual models, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, apparel, and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open account financing of motorcycles, and parts and accessories; and retail financing services, including installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as point-of-sale protection products comprising motorcycle insurance, extended service contracts, and motorcycle maintenance protection. This segment also licenses third-party financial institutions that issue credit cards bearing the Harley-Davidson brand. Harley-Davidson, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
How the Company Makes MoneyHarley-Davidson generates revenue primarily through the sale of motorcycles and related products. The company's key revenue streams include motorcycle sales, parts and accessories, and general merchandise. Motorcycle sales account for the majority of its revenue, driven by the iconic Harley-Davidson brand and a diverse lineup of cruiser, touring, and custom bikes. The company also earns from the sale of parts and accessories, which allow customers to personalize and maintain their motorcycles. Additionally, Harley-Davidson markets lifestyle apparel and merchandise under its brand. The company has established a strong dealer network to facilitate sales and services and leverages strategic partnerships to expand its reach globally. Financial services, including motorcycle financing and insurance, also contribute to its earnings, enhancing customer accessibility to Harley-Davidson products.
Harley-Davidson Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Harley-Davidson demonstrates moderate financial health with stable profitability and strong cash flow generation. While the balance sheet shows high leverage, which is typical for the industry, the company maintains a solid return on equity. Strategic focus on reducing debt and enhancing revenue growth could further strengthen its financial position.Income Statement
Harley-Davidson has experienced fluctuating revenue growth, with a noticeable dip in the most recent year. The gross profit margin and net profit margin have been relatively stable, indicating a consistent cost structure. However, the decline in revenue growth and EBIT margin suggest some operational challenges. Overall, the income statement reflects moderate profitability with room for improvement in growth.―
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio, which poses a risk but is common in the vehicles industry. The return on equity is healthy, indicating good profitability relative to shareholder investments. The equity ratio has been improving, showing a stronger capital structure over time. Overall, the balance sheet reveals financial stability but highlights the need to manage debt levels.72
Cash Flow
Harley-Davidson's cash flow statements indicate strong operating cash flow, with an improving free cash flow trend over recent years. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, reflecting efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio confirms solid free cash flow availability for reinvestment or debt reduction. Overall, cash flow management appears strong, but strategic reinvestment is essential for future growth.―
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 5.19B | 5.84B | 5.76B | 5.34B | 4.05B | Gross Profit |
| 1.81B | 1.79B | 2.35B | 1.71B | 1.02B | EBIT |
| 416.63M | 779.08M | 909.28M | 823.44M | 62.18M | EBITDA |
| 708.29M | 1.06B | 1.11B | 999.46M | 323.24M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 455.36M | 706.59M | 741.41M | 650.02M | 1.30M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 1.59B | 1.53B | 1.43B | 1.87B | 3.26B | Total Assets |
| 11.88B | 12.14B | 11.49B | 11.05B | 12.01B | Total Debt |
| 7.03B | 7.20B | 6.91B | 6.89B | 8.99B | Net Debt |
| 5.44B | 5.66B | 5.48B | 5.01B | 5.73B | Total Liabilities |
| 8.72B | 8.89B | 8.59B | 8.50B | 10.29B | Stockholders Equity |
| 3.17B | 3.25B | 2.91B | 2.55B | 1.72B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 867.27M | 547.48M | 396.79M | 855.52M | 1.05B | Operating Cash Flow |
| 1.06B | 754.89M | 548.46M | 975.70M | 1.18B | Investing Cash Flow |
| -383.33M | -512.30M | -773.01M | -459.45M | -66.78M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -572.32M | -174.65M | -201.97M | -1.88B | 1.37B |
Harley-Davidson Technical Analysis
Positive
23.51
Price Trends
24.32
Negative
26.58
Negative
30.74
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.33
Negative
50.57
Neutral
51.04
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HOG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 23.51 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.67, below the 50-day MA of 24.32, and below the 200-day MA of 30.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HOG.
Harley-Davidson Risk Analysis
Harley-Davidson disclosed 12 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Harley-Davidson reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Harley-Davidson Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $2.01B | 14.25 | 10.42% | 5.51% | -1.15% | 121.43% | |
70 Outperform | $2.79B | 6.55 | 10.86% | ― | -17.15% | -40.76% | |
68 Neutral | $3.99B | 19.92 | 5.13% | 2.64% | -8.45% | -25.41% | |
63 Neutral | $3.11B | 39.17 | 5.16% | 3.57% | -15.42% | -77.50% | |
61 Neutral | $872.15M | ― | -0.45% | 4.03% | -12.29% | -105.55% | |
61 Neutral | $6.65B | 11.64 | 3.00% | 3.98% | 2.61% | -21.41% | |
60 Neutral | $1.96B | 48.99 | 3.09% | ― | -17.86% | -89.55% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
HOG
Harley-Davidson
23.51
-11.34
-32.54%
BC
Brunswick
47.33
-32.69
-40.85%
LCII
LCI Industries
79.82
-23.43
-22.69%
PII
Polaris
34.83
-46.65
-57.25%
THO
Thor Industries
75.06
-24.16
-24.35%
WGO
Winnebago Industries
33.03
-27.36
-45.31%
Harley-Davidson Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 4.86%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The earnings call highlighted strong financial services performance and strategic product launches, but these were overshadowed by significant declines in retail sales, challenges in the APAC region, and issues with LiveWire. The withdrawal of 2025 guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainty further contributed to a cautious outlook.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Operating Income Margin
HDI operating income margin for the quarter came in at 12.1%, driven by strong product mix and tight cost control.
Financial Services Performance
Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) delivered a better-than-expected result with an increase of 19% in operating income for the quarter.
Product Launch Success
The launch of the CVO Road Glide RR, a limited production motorcycle, received an outstanding response, with expectations to sell out from preorders.
New Entry-Level Products
Harley-Davidson plans to introduce new entry-level products in smaller displacements and an iconic classic for the US and international markets starting next year.
Negative Updates
Significant Retail Sales Decline
Global retail sales were down 21% in Q1, with North America down 24%, primarily due to historically low consumer confidence.
APAC Region Retail Decline
The APAC region experienced a 28% retail decline, driven by softness in China and Japan.
Wholesale Shipments and Inventory Reduction
Global wholesale shipments were down 33%, and dealer inventory was down 19% compared to last year.
LiveWire Challenges
LiveWire reported a decrease in revenue due to lower unit sales and faces headwinds in the EV segment, with operating losses expected at $59 million for the year.
Withdrawal of 2025 Guidance
Harley-Davidson withdrew its previous 2025 guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainty and a dynamic tariff environment.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, Harley-Davidson reported an operating income margin of 12.1%, driven by a favorable product mix and stringent cost management. However, global retail sales declined by 21%, with a notable 24% decrease in North America, influenced by low consumer confidence. Despite these challenges, Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) exceeded expectations with a 19% increase in operating income. The company saw global wholesale shipments decrease by 33% and dealer inventory by 19%. Harley-Davidson plans to introduce new entry-level products in smaller displacements and iconic classics for various markets. The company is also shifting its model-year launch timing to later in the year to align with the riding season, which aims to extend selling opportunities. Harley-Davidson is evaluating its investment in LiveWire, aiming to reduce operating losses to $59 million and cash burn to $49 million for the year. Due to economic uncertainties and fluctuating tariffs, Harley-Davidson has withdrawn its previous 2025 guidance.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.