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Polaris
(NYSE:PII)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$56.00
â–¼(-12.14% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/27/26
PII’s score is held back primarily by weak current profitability and higher leverage (financial performance), partially offset by positive free cash flow. The earnings call improves the outlook with raised guidance, margin improvement trajectory, and visible deleveraging, while technicals remain mixed (short-term improvement but still below key longer-term moving averages). Valuation is supported by a high dividend yield, but the negative P/E reflects ongoing losses and execution risk.
Positive Factors
ORV Share Gains
Repeated ORV share gains indicate that Polaris is strengthening its competitive position in a core category, not merely benefiting from market expansion. Higher share can support dealer relationships, improve scale economics, and provide a durable base for future vehicle and aftermarket revenue.
Negative Factors
Weak Profitability
Negative net income and thin operating earnings show that revenue is not currently converting into dependable shareholder returns. Although gross margin has improved, the lack of bottom-line profitability leaves Polaris more exposed to execution setbacks and makes a sustained recovery dependent on further cost and mix improvement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
ORV Share Gains
Repeated ORV share gains indicate that Polaris is strengthening its competitive position in a core category, not merely benefiting from market expansion. Higher share can support dealer relationships, improve scale economics, and provide a durable base for future vehicle and aftermarket revenue.
Read all positive factors
Polaris (PII) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.30B
Dividend Yield4.67%
Average Volume (3M)820.09K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.05
Revenue Growth8.43%
EPS Growth-143.55%
CountryUS
Employees14,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Recreational Vehicles
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.64
Shares Outstanding56,903,522
10 Day Avg. Volume742,477
30 Day Avg. Volume820,091
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)4.34
Price to Sales (P/S)0.50
P/FCF Ratio6.45
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.37
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.59
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.76
Enterprise Value/Ebitda25.93
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$61.78Price Target Upside-3.08% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)3.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.44B
Polaris Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Polaris Inc. is a global enterprise specializing in the design, engineering, production, and distribution of powersports vehicles. Its business is structured across three primary segments: Off-Road, On-Road, and Marine. The company's off-road line...
How the Company Makes Money
Polaris primarily makes money by selling powersports vehicles and by generating recurring aftermarket revenue from parts, garments, and accessories that support its installed base. Vehicle sales: A large portion of revenue comes from wholesale sal...
Polaris Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 27, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 02, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was predominantly positive. Polaris reported broad-based sales growth, continued ORV share gains, improved operational margins, stronger cash generation, lower leverage, healthy dealer inventory and a third increase to full-year guidance. The main challenges were elevated commodity, logistics and tariff costs, softness in recreational and pontoon retail, weaker international markets and continued macroeconomic uncertainty. Overall, the number and significance of the positive developments outweighed the stated headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Third-Quarter Sales Growth
Reported sales increased 11% year over year, or 17% excluding Indian Motorcycle from Q3 2025. Growth was driven by high single-digit ORV growth, double-digit PG&A growth, high double-digit growth in commercial, government and defense and marine, and more than 100% growth in seasonal.
Negative Updates
Commodity, Logistics and Tariff Cost Headwinds
Higher commodity costs for steel, diesel and aluminum, along with logistics and tariff costs, remained significant pressures. Gross profit margin from operations declined 19 basis points, reflecting a 190 basis point headwind from commodities, logistics and tariffs. Full-year commodity and logistics costs are expected to be $70 million higher than last year, while tariffs are expected to be $215 million.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Third-Quarter Sales Growth
Reported sales increased 11% year over year, or 17% excluding Indian Motorcycle from Q3 2025. Growth was driven by high single-digit ORV growth, double-digit PG&A growth, high double-digit growth in commercial, government and defense and marine, and more than 100% growth in seasonal.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Polaris raised full year sales guidance to $7.55 billion to $7.6 billion, representing growth of approximately 6% and approximately 11% organic sales growth at the midpoint excluding the sale of Indian Motorcycle; fourth quarter organic sales are expected to be roughly flat, with Q4 retail expected to be flattish. Full year adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to increase 270 to 275 basis points, or approximately 165 to 170 basis points on an operational basis excluding tariff refunds, versus prior outlook of 145 to 170 basis points, with commodity and logistics costs expected to be $70 million higher than last year; fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase by more than 100 basis points. Full year adjusted EPS guidance increased to $3.50 to $3.60, including $1.90 from tariff refunds, while operational adjusted EPS is expected to be $2.40 to $2.50, and fourth quarter adjusted EPS is expected to be $0.32 to $0.42. Tariffs are expected to be $215 million this year, the Indian Motorcycle separation remains on track to be accretive by $50 million to adjusted EBITDA, year end working capital is expected to be negative 2% of sales, and net leverage is expected to be below 2x. Retail, previously expected to be flat year over year, is now expected to grow low single digits. No formal 2027 guidance was provided, but the company intends to manage net leverage within its 1x to 2x target range, expects manufacturing facilities to run at roughly 70% of capacity, expects 9% of material cost of goods sold originating from China by year end versus approximately 14% at the beginning of the year, and targets below 5% by year end 2027.Polaris Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
41
Neutral
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.65B | 7.15B | 7.18B | 8.93B | 8.59B | 7.44B |
| Gross Profit | 1.63B | 1.32B | 1.40B | 1.91B | 1.91B | 1.70B |
| EBITDA | 174.00M | -113.40M | 569.40M | 1.01B | 1.07B | 881.20M |
| Net Income | -206.20M | -465.50M | 110.80M | 502.80M | 589.70M | 493.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.05B | 4.89B | 5.53B | 5.52B | 5.22B | 5.05B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 301.70M | 138.00M | 287.80M | 367.80M | 324.50M | 502.30M |
| Total Debt | 1.63B | 1.54B | 2.20B | 2.05B | 2.17B | 1.89B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.20B | 4.05B | 4.23B | 4.10B | 4.12B | 3.82B |
| Stockholders Equity | 844.50M | 828.40M | 1.29B | 1.42B | 1.10B | 1.22B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 265.50M | 558.10M | 6.50M | 513.20M | 202.00M | -4.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 470.50M | 741.00M | 268.20M | 925.80M | 508.60M | 293.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -233.10M | -139.50M | -270.90M | -462.00M | -324.60M | -303.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -267.70M | -693.00M | -59.20M | -431.30M | -363.20M | -107.60M |
Polaris Technical Analysis
Positive
63.74
Price Trends
56.83
Positive
62.84
Negative
61.76
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.13
Negative
61.19
Neutral
67.83
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PII, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 63.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.23, above the 50-day MA of 56.83, and above the 200-day MA of 61.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PII.
Polaris Risk Analysis
Polaris disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Polaris reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Polaris Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $2.18B | 10.34 | 15.25% | 5.12% | 4.05% | 44.68% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $809.52M | 23.52 | 2.79% | 4.95% | -3.37% | 32.39% | |
56 Neutral | $3.06B | 17.84 | 6.27% | 2.52% | -5.25% | -14.29% | |
55 Neutral | $3.64B | 20.78 | 4.13% | 2.98% | 0.31% | -30.23% | |
54 Neutral | $3.30B | -15.95 | -25.30% | 4.67% | 8.43% | -143.55% | |
54 Neutral | $4.39B | -52.49 | -5.32% | 2.58% | 10.46% | -305.37% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
PII
Polaris
58.06
-6.78
-10.46%
BC
Brunswick
67.71
0.87
1.30%
LCII
LCI Industries
89.84
3.02
3.47%
HOG
Harley-Davidson
29.44
3.37
12.91%
THO
Thor Industries
70.44
-30.48
-30.20%
WGO
Winnebago Industries
28.46
-7.25
-20.29%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.