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MINISO Group Holding Ltd.
(9896)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
HK$19.50
▼(-8.19% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/22/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened financial quality in the latest period—losses, negative free cash flow, and sharply higher leverage. Offsetting factors include moderate valuation with a high dividend yield and mixed-but-stable technical signals, while the earnings call adds caution due to reduced profit outlook and margin-pressure guidance despite ongoing revenue growth.
Positive Factors
China Growth Outperformance
MINISO China is expanding much faster than the broader retail market, indicating strong brand relevance and consumer demand. If this relative performance persists, it can support continued store investment, improve operating leverage, and provide a durable growth engine while overseas operations are being refined.
Negative Factors
Sharp Leverage Increase
The sharp increase in leverage and reduction in equity materially weaken financial flexibility. A highly leveraged capital structure can constrain investment in stores and products, increase sensitivity to weaker profitability, and make a sustained earnings recovery more important for balance-sheet stability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
China Growth Outperformance
MINISO China is expanding much faster than the broader retail market, indicating strong brand relevance and consumer demand. If this relative performance persists, it can support continued store investment, improve operating leverage, and provide a durable growth engine while overseas operations are being refined.
Read all positive factors
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. (9896) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$24.06B
Dividend Yield6.58%
Average Volume (3M)4.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.2
Beta (1Y)0.98
Revenue Growth30.79%
EPS Growth-44.14%
CountryHK
Employees8,329
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.98
Shares Outstanding1,214,041,500
10 Day Avg. Volume3,696,117
30 Day Avg. Volume4,105,521
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.62
Price to Book (P/B)21.44
Price to Sales (P/S)1.86
P/FCF Ratio-28.99
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$30.40Price Target Upside43.13% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)2.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$28.90B
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MINISO Group Holding Limited operates as an investment entity, primarily focused on the global retail and wholesale distribution of lifestyle items and popular toy products. Its expansive portfolio features a broad range of categories under the MI...
How the Company Makes Money
MINISO primarily makes money by selling consumer lifestyle products through its MINISO-branded retail network. Its revenue model generally combines (1) direct retail sales generated from company-operated stores and online channels (where MINISO re...
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call was mixed. MINISO China delivered strong revenue growth, store productivity, membership expansion, proprietary IP performance, cash flow and shareholder returns, while North America and selected Latin American metrics showed resilience. However, overseas execution, distributor revenue, inventory turnover, same-store momentum in North America and Europe, operating expenses and margins remain challenges. The company also reduced its full-year profit outlook and expects a 3 to 4 percentage-point decline in adjusted operating profit margin.Positive Updates
Strong H1 Group Revenue and Cash Flow Growth
H1 revenue reached RMB 11.5 billion, up 22.4%; EPS grew 8.2%; operating cash flow rose 46%; and the global store count reached 8,674.
Negative Updates
Overseas Performance Fell Short of Expectations
Management said overseas performance fell short of expectations. Overseas contribution to company profit declined from 35% to 40% in 2023 to 10% to 15% in H1 2026, due to a decline in distributor business revenue and direct-operated markets outside North America that remain in the early investment stage and are not yet profitable.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong H1 Group Revenue and Cash Flow Growth
H1 revenue reached RMB 11.5 billion, up 22.4%; EPS grew 8.2%; operating cash flow rose 46%; and the global store count reached 8,674.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Based upon the company's current projection, revenue is expected to grow by high single-digit Y-o-Y in H2, mid-double digit for the full year; MINISO China revenue is expected to grow by mid upper digit Y-o-Y, overseas revenue by low single digit, overseas distributor revenue to decline by low double digit, overseas directly operated business to grow low double digit, and TOP TOY revenue is expected to flat in H2 with low double-digit growth for the full year. The company expects a net reduction of 50 to 70 stores for overseas market in H2, a net addition of 40 to 50 directly operated stores and a net reduction of 100 to 110 distribution distributor stores; full-year low single-digit same-store growth for MINISO China and MINISO North America remain unchanged, North America will reach close to RMB 4 billion in scale with 10% net margin for the full year, excluding ForEx, adjusted operating profit is expected to decline by a high single digit Y-o-Y, adjusted operating profit margin is expected to decline 3 to 4 percentage points on Y-o-Y, tariff refunds will also have 20 bps to 30 bps support to the overall GP margin for the next 2 quarters, and shareholder return for this year is buybacks plus dividends of no less than 50% of adjusted net profit, excluding ForEx effect.MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
20
Very Negative
Cash Flow
24
Negative
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Dec 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 21.44B | 16.99B | 14.21B | 11.47B | 10.09B |
| Gross Profit | 9.65B | 7.64B | 6.03B | 4.44B | 3.07B |
| EBITDA | 3.60B | 4.29B | 3.71B | 2.43B | 1.02B |
| Net Income | 1.21B | 2.62B | 2.32B | 1.77B | 638.17M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 30.46B | 18.12B | 14.44B | 13.45B | 11.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.25B | 6.70B | 6.87B | 7.28B | 5.80B |
| Total Debt | 14.58B | 3.11B | 1.25B | 892.95M | 658.01M |
| Total Liabilities | 28.82B | 7.76B | 5.28B | 4.53B | 4.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.86B | 10.31B | 9.14B | 8.90B | 7.03B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.38B | 1.41B | 950.81M | 1.49B | 172.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 73.24M | 2.17B | 1.22B | 1.67B | 1.41B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -352.18M | -533.25M | 40.59M | -293.41M | -2.13B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.84B | -1.72B | -1.32B | -325.96M | -733.56M |
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Technical Analysis
Positive
21.24
Price Trends
18.95
Positive
21.43
Negative
26.79
Negative
Market Momentum
0.22
Negative
56.01
Neutral
29.23
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:9896, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.07, above the 50-day MA of 18.95, and below the 200-day MA of 26.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:9896.
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Risk Analysis
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. disclosed 103 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MINISO Group Holding Ltd. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | HK$4.05B | 19.92 | 16.40% | 2.06% | 11.19% | 160.48% | |
69 Neutral | HK$1.21B | 5.64 | 31.59% | 3.46% | 31.51% | 22.05% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | HK$115.76B | 28.27 | 6.50% | 1.87% | 3.25% | 19.01% | |
50 Neutral | HK$24.06B | 17.16 | 14.11% | 6.58% | 30.79% | -44.14% | |
48 Neutral | HK$2.15B | 27.47 | 2.21% | 0.51% | 0.94% | ― | |
45 Neutral | HK$63.52M | 0.49 | 6.58% | 0.03% | 52.42% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
HK:9896
MINISO Group Holding Ltd.
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MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Corporate Events
MINISO Posts Strong GMV Growth as YOYO IP Surpasses RMB1 Billion
Oct 9, 2026
MINISO reported that gross merchandise value in its Chinese mainland operations rose 25%–30% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, driven by high-single-digit same-store sales growth, with National Day holiday sales also showing robust ...
MINISO CFO Boosts Personal Stake, Signalling Confidence in Long-Term Prospects
Sep 29, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. has disclosed that its chief financial officer, Jingjing Zhang, has purchased additional ordinary shares in the company on the open market, investing about HK$2.7 million of personal funds on September 29, 2026, following...
MINISO Discloses Unaudited Interim Results and Warns Investors on Risks
Aug 28, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Ltd., a Cayman Islands–incorporated lifestyle product retailer listed in Hong Kong and reporting to the U.S. SEC, has disclosed its unaudited condensed consolidated financial results for the three and six months ended Ju...
MINISO Delivers Strong Revenue Growth but Sees Decline in Adjusted Profit for First Half of 2026
Aug 28, 2026
MINISO reported solid top-line growth for the six months ended June 30, 2026, with revenue rising 22.4% year-on-year to RMB 11.50 billion and gross profit increasing 22.5% to RMB 5.09 billion, reflecting resilient consumer demand and continued sto...
MINISO forecasts strong H1 2026 revenue growth, profit boosted by AI investment gains
Aug 14, 2026
MINISO expects unaudited revenue of RMB11.45 billion to RMB11.55 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2026, up 22% to 23% year on year, with operating profit rising 5% to 7% and profit for the period growing 4% to 6%. Basic and diluted earnin...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.