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MINISO Group Holding Ltd.
(9896)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
HK$18.00
▼(-15.25% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
The score is primarily weighed down by the latest financial deterioration (losses, margin compression, negative free cash flow) and the sharp increase in leverage, which materially raises risk. Technicals add further pressure due to a clear downtrend and negative momentum, while valuation provides partial support through a moderate P/E and a high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong Revenue Growth
Revenue growth of 56.5% shows that MINISO continues to expand sales at a substantial rate despite weaker profitability. Sustained top-line momentum can support greater purchasing scale, broader market reach, and future operating leverage if margins and cash conversion recover.
Negative Factors
Severe Margin Compression
The sharp fall in gross margin and swing to operating and net losses materially weaken earnings quality. Unless profitability recovers, rapid sales growth may not translate into earnings, while persistent margin pressure could constrain reinvestment and reduce the resilience of the business model.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Revenue Growth
Revenue growth of 56.5% shows that MINISO continues to expand sales at a substantial rate despite weaker profitability. Sustained top-line momentum can support greater purchasing scale, broader market reach, and future operating leverage if margins and cash conversion recover.
Read all positive factors
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. (9896) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$22.67B
Dividend Yield7.06%
Average Volume (3M)5.28M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.1
Beta (1Y)0.98
Revenue Growth30.79%
EPS Growth-44.14%
CountryHK
Employees8,329
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.98
Shares Outstanding1,214,041,500
10 Day Avg. Volume7,200,083
30 Day Avg. Volume5,279,198
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.62
Price to Book (P/B)21.44
Price to Sales (P/S)1.86
P/FCF Ratio-28.99
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$30.40Price Target Upside43.13% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)2.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$29.01B
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MINISO Group Holding Limited operates as an investment entity, primarily focused on the global retail and wholesale distribution of lifestyle items and popular toy products. Its expansive portfolio features a broad range of categories under the MI...
How the Company Makes Money
MINISO primarily makes money by selling consumer lifestyle products through its MINISO-branded retail network. Its revenue model generally combines (1) direct retail sales generated from company-operated stores and online channels (where MINISO re...
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
20
Very Negative
Cash Flow
24
Negative
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Dec 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 21.44B | 16.99B | 14.21B | 11.47B | 10.09B |
| Gross Profit | 9.65B | 7.64B | 6.03B | 4.44B | 3.07B |
| EBITDA | 3.60B | 4.29B | 3.65B | 2.43B | 1.02B |
| Net Income | 1.21B | 2.62B | 2.32B | 1.77B | 638.17M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 30.46B | 18.12B | 14.44B | 13.45B | 11.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.25B | 6.70B | 6.87B | 7.28B | 5.80B |
| Total Debt | 14.58B | 3.11B | 1.25B | 892.95M | 658.01M |
| Total Liabilities | 28.82B | 7.76B | 5.28B | 4.53B | 4.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.86B | 10.31B | 9.14B | 8.90B | 7.03B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.38B | 1.41B | 950.81M | 1.49B | 172.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 73.24M | 2.17B | 1.22B | 1.67B | 1.41B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -352.18M | -533.25M | 40.59M | -293.41M | -2.13B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.84B | -1.72B | -1.32B | -325.96M | -733.56M |
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Technical Analysis
Negative
21.24
Price Trends
22.88
Negative
24.82
Negative
30.22
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.38
Positive
26.80
Positive
11.43
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:9896, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.86, below the 50-day MA of 22.88, and below the 200-day MA of 30.22, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.38 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.80 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.43 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:9896.
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Risk Analysis
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. disclosed 103 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MINISO Group Holding Ltd. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
Adverse developments affecting financial institutions or the financial services industry in general, such as actual events or concerns involving liquidity, defaults or non-performance by financial institutions or transactional counterparties, could adversely affect our current and projected business operations and our financial condition and results of operations. Q2, 2023
2.
Our business is operated globally. Global inflationary pressures could negatively affect our results of operations and cash flows. Q2, 2023
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | HK$1.45B | 6.72 | 31.59% | 2.91% | 31.51% | 22.05% | |
73 Outperform | HK$3.16B | 15.42 | 16.40% | 2.67% | 11.19% | 160.48% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | HK$125.07B | 30.69 | 6.50% | 1.59% | 3.25% | 19.01% | |
48 Neutral | HK$2.68B | 35.67 | 2.21% | 0.40% | 0.94% | ― | |
47 Neutral | HK$22.67B | 16.14 | 14.11% | 7.06% | 30.79% | -44.14% | |
47 Neutral | HK$138.74M | -0.49 | -181.16% | 0.55% | ― | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
HK:9896
MINISO Group Holding Ltd.
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MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Corporate Events
MINISO Discloses Unaudited Interim Results and Warns Investors on Risks
Aug 28, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Ltd., a Cayman Islands–incorporated lifestyle product retailer listed in Hong Kong and reporting to the U.S. SEC, has disclosed its unaudited condensed consolidated financial results for the three and six months ended Ju...
MINISO Delivers Strong Revenue Growth but Sees Decline in Adjusted Profit for First Half of 2026
Aug 28, 2026
MINISO reported solid top-line growth for the six months ended June 30, 2026, with revenue rising 22.4% year-on-year to RMB 11.50 billion and gross profit increasing 22.5% to RMB 5.09 billion, reflecting resilient consumer demand and continued sto...
MINISO forecasts strong H1 2026 revenue growth, profit boosted by AI investment gains
Aug 14, 2026
MINISO expects unaudited revenue of RMB11.45 billion to RMB11.55 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2026, up 22% to 23% year on year, with operating profit rising 5% to 7% and profit for the period growing 4% to 6%. Basic and diluted earnin...
MINISO Adds Yonghui Audited Results to Amended U.S. Filing
Jun 29, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Limited has updated investors on its significant equity investment in Yonghui Superstores Co., Ltd., a Chinese retail chain, by filing an amended annual report in the United States. The company determined that Yonghui, account...
MINISO unveils new HK$2 billion share buyback for 2026
Jun 29, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. has authorized a new 2026 share repurchase program allowing it to buy back up to HK$2 billion worth of ordinary shares and American depositary shares over a 12‑month period starting June 30, 2026, funded from surplu...
MINISO Shareholders Approve All AGM Resolutions, Bolstering Capital Flexibility
Jun 18, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. said shareholders overwhelmingly approved all resolutions at its annual general meeting held on June 18, 2026, including adoption of the 2025 audited financial statements and the re-election of independent non-executive d...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.