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China Youran Dairy Group Limited
(9858)
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Rating:42Neutral
Price Target:
HK$3.50
▼(-10.71% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/14/26
The score is primarily held down by weakened financial performance (multi-year net losses, sharp margin compression, and high leverage) and bearish technical conditions (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation is only modestly supportive given the P/E and lack of dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Integrated upstream dairy operations
The company controls core upstream activities through large-scale, self-operated farms, including breeding and herd management. This operating base supports direct control over milk production and farm processes, providing a durable platform for supplying downstream dairy processors over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Severe margin compression
The sharp decline in gross margin materially weakens the economics of raw milk production and leaves less room to absorb operating costs. If margins remain near 2025 levels, earnings will be more sensitive to selling prices, farm expenses and changes in herd productivity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated upstream dairy operations
The company controls core upstream activities through large-scale, self-operated farms, including breeding and herd management. This operating base supports direct control over milk production and farm processes, providing a durable platform for supplying downstream dairy processors over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
China Youran Dairy Group Limited (9858) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$15.16B
Dividend Yield1.3%
Average Volume (3M)16.88M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.5
Beta (1Y)1.11
Revenue Growth6.96%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryHK
Employees13,055
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.16
Shares Outstanding4,491,228,000
10 Day Avg. Volume22,915,419
30 Day Avg. Volume16,878,918
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.07
Price to Book (P/B)1.62
Price to Sales (P/S)0.86
P/FCF Ratio-99.26
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$6.14Price Target Upside56.63% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.4
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$21.69B
China Youran Dairy Group Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
China Youran Dairy Group Limited functions as an investment holding company, offering a comprehensive suite of products and services to the upstream dairy industry across the People's Republic of China. Its operations are divided into two primary ...
How the Company Makes Money
The company makes money mainly by producing and selling raw milk from its self-operated dairy farms to downstream dairy product manufacturers and processors. Revenue is therefore primarily driven by (i) sales volume of raw milk (linked to herd siz...
China Youran Dairy Group Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 21.00B | 20.65B | 20.10B | 18.69B | 18.05B | 15.35B |
| Gross Profit | 6.22B | 6.15B | 5.78B | 4.47B | 4.22B | 4.69B |
| EBITDA | 2.91B | 5.38B | 5.02B | 3.62B | 2.01B | 3.21B |
| Net Income | 670.21M | -432.39M | -690.89M | -1.05B | 414.77M | 1.56B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 41.00B | 42.39B | 43.66B | 46.20B | 43.45B | 31.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.89B | 1.83B | 882.37M | 3.94B | 2.86B | 1.02B |
| Total Debt | 22.47B | 26.02B | 26.49B | 28.08B | 23.32B | 13.18B |
| Total Liabilities | 26.26B | 30.54B | 31.50B | 33.10B | 28.70B | 17.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 13.84B | 10.98B | 11.30B | 11.83B | 13.06B | 13.18B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.12B | -178.95M | -651.89M | -3.66B | -6.13B | -5.53B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.09B | 5.06B | 5.84B | 4.39B | 2.55B | 2.27B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.47B | -3.97B | -5.60B | -4.34B | -10.78B | -8.70B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.45B | -829.04M | -3.11B | 2.99B | 8.05B | 5.42B |
China Youran Dairy Group Limited Technical Analysis
Negative
3.92
Price Trends
3.94
Negative
3.74
Negative
3.95
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.19
Positive
41.19
Neutral
30.32
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:9858, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.54, below the 50-day MA of 3.94, and below the 200-day MA of 3.95, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:9858.
China Youran Dairy Group Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | HK$1.34B | 1.70 | 11.75% | ― | 12.04% | 144.39% | |
65 Neutral | HK$1.92B | 81.29 | 8.24% | 9.45% | 11.92% | 46.15% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
54 Neutral | HK$8.69B | -17.95 | -12.23% | 1.79% | -10.01% | -129.99% | |
45 Neutral | HK$2.01B | -6.49 | -7.21% | 1.28% | 4.62% | -947.50% | |
44 Neutral | HK$9.87B | -42.26 | -2.37% | 1.08% | 5.12% | 90.34% | |
42 Neutral | HK$15.16B | 18.46 | 5.40% | 1.30% | 6.96% | ― |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
HK:9858
China Youran Dairy Group Limited
3.38
-0.10
-2.74%
HK:1431
YuanShengTai Dairy Farm
0.29
0.02
9.62%
HK:1432
China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd
0.24
-0.10
-28.36%
HK:1117
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd.
1.25
0.01
0.81%
HK:1936
Ritamix Global Limited
4.07
3.49
599.31%
HK:2419
Dekon Food And Agriculture Group Class H
55.00
-16.85
-23.45%
China Youran Dairy Group Limited Corporate Events
China Youran Dairy Swings to Interim Profit as Milk Yields and Cash Earnings Improve
Aug 25, 2026
China Youran Dairy Group Limited reported a modest increase in revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2026, with sales rising 3.3% year-on-year to RMB10.63 billion. Gross profit also edged up 2.1% to RMB3.15 billion, driven in part by an improv...
China Youran Dairy Schedules Board Meeting to Review Interim Results and Dividend
Aug 10, 2026
China Youran Dairy Group Limited has scheduled a board meeting for August 25, 2026 to review and approve the interim results of the company and its subsidiaries for the six months ended June 30, 2026. The board will also consider the potential dec...
China Youran Dairy Plans Asset Swap to Streamline Upstream Operations
Aug 5, 2026
China Youran Dairy Group Limited, a Hong Kong-listed upstream dairy producer, runs dairy farming, raw milk production, feed manufacturing and ruminant product businesses through Inner Mongolia Youran and SKX. The Group’s structure places dai...
China Youran Dairy Forecasts Sharp Profit Rebound on Cost Cuts and Stable Milk Prices
Jul 28, 2026
China Youran Dairy Group Limited has issued a positive profit alert, signalling a sharp turnaround for the six months ended June 30, 2026, with profit attributable to shareholders expected between RMB739 million and RMB903 million, compared with a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.