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China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd.
(1117)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
HK$1.50
▲(2.74% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
The score is held down primarily by deteriorating financial performance (margin collapse, ongoing losses, higher leverage, and negative free cash flow). Technicals are supportive with strong momentum, but extremely overbought indicators raise reversal risk. Valuation is constrained by negative earnings, with a relatively high dividend yield providing only limited support.
Positive Factors
Large-scale upstream dairy platform
A large-scale farm network gives the company an established operating platform in China’s dairy supply chain. Producing an essential upstream input for processors can support recurring commercial demand and provides a base from which herd productivity and utilization improvements may enhance future performance.
Negative Factors
Severe margin deterioration and recurring losses
The sharp margin collapse shows that the company’s recent cost structure and raw-milk economics are not supporting profitable operations. Negative EBIT, EBITDA, and widening losses reduce retained capital, weaken resilience, and make a durable earnings recovery dependent on substantial operating improvement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large-scale upstream dairy platform
A large-scale farm network gives the company an established operating platform in China’s dairy supply chain. Producing an essential upstream input for processors can support recurring commercial demand and provides a base from which herd productivity and utilization improvements may enhance future performance.
Read all positive factors
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. (1117) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$13.02B
Dividend Yield0.81%
Average Volume (3M)31.06M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.87
Revenue Growth5.24%
EPS Growth90.34%
CountryHK
Employees9,204
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.03
Shares Outstanding7,915,662,000
10 Day Avg. Volume17,201,227
30 Day Avg. Volume31,057,678
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.47
Price to Book (P/B)1.37
Price to Sales (P/S)0.90
P/FCF Ratio-6.93
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$2.08Price Target Upside42.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$14.44B
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. functions as an investment holding company dedicated to the production and sale of milk throughout Mainland China. The company's operations include supplying raw milk to clients for dairy product manufacturing, alo...
How the Company Makes Money
The company primarily makes money by producing and selling raw milk. Its core revenue stream is revenue from raw milk sales, where pricing and volumes are driven by factors such as herd size, milk yield per cow, farm utilization, and prevailing ra...
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
35
Negative
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 13.12B | 12.60B | 13.25B | 13.46B | 12.30B | 7.08B |
| Gross Profit | 3.58B | 3.45B | 3.45B | 3.13B | 3.27B | 2.55B |
| EBITDA | 1.66B | 2.68B | 2.60B | 1.19B | 1.40B | 1.58B |
| Net Income | -196.44M | -1.13B | -1.42B | 175.16M | 562.50M | 1.02B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 36.89B | 36.59B | 33.94B | 31.39B | 28.82B | 23.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.08B | 6.59B | 3.06B | 1.96B | 2.14B | 1.89B |
| Total Debt | 23.40B | 21.59B | 16.90B | 13.52B | 13.54B | 9.06B |
| Total Liabilities | 27.08B | 26.77B | 22.82B | 19.55B | 17.18B | 12.56B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.27B | 8.30B | 9.53B | 11.20B | 11.26B | 10.86B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -276.99M | -1.64B | -2.02B | 1.12B | -2.48B | -125.57M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.82B | 2.04B | 2.40B | 5.45B | 1.58B | 1.87B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.29B | -3.89B | -3.97B | -3.88B | -3.99B | -2.87B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.27B | 4.42B | 2.00B | -1.63B | 2.59B | 1.64B |
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Technical Analysis
Positive
1.46
Price Trends
1.41
Positive
1.28
Positive
1.37
Positive
Market Momentum
0.07
Negative
62.64
Neutral
87.02
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1117, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.46 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.56, above the 50-day MA of 1.41, and above the 200-day MA of 1.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.02 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:1117.
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | HK$1.50B | 1.92 | 11.75% | ― | 12.04% | 144.39% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
52 Neutral | HK$3.06B | -9.89 | -7.23% | 1.28% | 4.62% | -947.50% | |
46 Neutral | HK$19.96B | 24.47 | 5.40% | 1.30% | 6.96% | ― | |
44 Neutral | HK$13.02B | -56.13 | -2.37% | 0.81% | 5.24% | 90.34% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
HK:1117
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd.
1.65
0.38
29.92%
HK:1431
YuanShengTai Dairy Farm
0.32
0.02
6.67%
HK:1432
China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd
0.37
0.03
10.61%
HK:9858
China Youran Dairy Group Limited
4.45
1.19
36.35%
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Corporate Events
China Modern Dairy Adjusts Voting Control Over China Shengmu Shares After Takeover
Sep 10, 2026
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. and China Shengmu Organic Milk Limited jointly announced a partial lapse of an irrevocable voting proxy previously granted by Start Great Holdings Limited over shares of China Shengmu. The adjustment follows the co...
China Modern Dairy Boosts Raw Milk Scale and Cash Flow with Organic Acquisition
Aug 25, 2026
China Modern Dairy reported interim results for the six months to 30 June 2026 that reflect steady operational growth and an expanding asset base along the full dairy value chain. The acquisition of a majority stake in China Shengmu Organic Milk L...
China Modern Dairy Sets Board Meeting for Interim Results and Dividend Plan
Aug 10, 2026
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has scheduled a board meeting for 25 August 2026 to approve its unaudited consolidated financial statements and interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2026. The meeting will also consider whether to recom...
China Modern Dairy Lifts Stake in China Shengmu to 83.5% as Takeover Offer Closes
Aug 3, 2026
China Modern Dairy has closed its mandatory unconditional cash offer for China Shengmu Organic Milk, acquiring valid acceptances for approximately 52.25% of Shengmu’s issued shares. Combined with its existing holdings and concert-party inter...
China Modern Dairy Lifts Stake in Shengmu to 83.5% After Offer Close
Aug 3, 2026
China Modern Dairy Holdings has completed a mandatory unconditional cash offer to acquire all remaining shares of China Shengmu Organic Milk that it did not already own or had agreed to acquire. The offer, conducted through CLSA Limited, closed on...
China Modern Dairy Says Director Unaffected by Redco Disciplinary Action
Jul 29, 2026
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has disclosed that independent non-executive director Mr. Chow Ming Sang, who sits on its Audit, Remuneration and Nomination Committees, is also an independent non-executive director of Redco Healthy Living Company...
China Modern Dairy Signals Sharp Profit Turnaround for First Half of 2026
Jul 23, 2026
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. expects to post a profit before tax of at least RMB43 million for the first half of 2026, marking a sharp turnaround from a loss of about RMB972 million a year earlier. The improvement follows a reduced loss from c...
China Modern Dairy Lifts Stake in Shengmu to 81% in Cash Offer
Jul 21, 2026
China Modern Dairy has launched a mandatory conditional cash offer to acquire all remaining shares of China Shengmu Organic Milk not already owned by it and Start Great, further consolidating control over the organic milk producer. CLSA Limited is...
China Modern Dairy’s Cash Offer for China Shengmu Turns Unconditional, Stake Rises Above 71%
Jul 20, 2026
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has successfully completed a mandatory conditional cash offer for China Shengmu Organic Milk Limited, with valid acceptances received for over 3.37 billion shares. Together with shares already owned or controlled, ...
China Modern Dairy Launches Mandatory Offer for China Shengmu Shares
Jun 29, 2026
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. and China Shengmu Organic Milk Limited have jointly announced the despatch of a composite document detailing a mandatory conditional cash offer by CLSA Limited, on behalf of China Modern Dairy, to acquire all issue...
China Modern Dairy Delays Offer Document in Takeover of China Shengmu
Jun 18, 2026
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. and China Shengmu Organic Milk Limited have announced a further extension of the deadline for sending out the offer document related to China Modern Dairy’s mandatory conditional cash offer for all issued sha...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.