Want to see HK:1117 full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd.
(1117)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
HK$1.00
▼(-31.51% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/14/26
The score is held down primarily by deteriorating financial performance—sharp margin compression, ongoing losses, higher leverage, and negative free cash flow despite positive operating cash flow. Technicals also lean bearish with price below key moving averages and negative MACD, though near-oversold RSI/Stoch slightly offsets. Valuation is mixed: the high dividend yield is supportive, but a negative P/E reflects loss-making fundamentals.
Positive Factors
Large-scale raw milk platform
The company’s large-scale upstream farming platform gives it an established role in China’s dairy supply chain and supports meaningful production capacity. Supplying processors and other customers creates a recurring operating model tied to essential dairy consumption rather than a purely discretionary product niche.
Negative Factors
Severe margin and earnings deterioration
The sharp gross-margin collapse and negative EBIT, EBITDA and net income show that the current operating model is not converting revenue into sustainable profitability. Persistent losses reduce internal funding capacity and make recovery dependent on restoring economics across the farming operation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large-scale raw milk platform
The company’s large-scale upstream farming platform gives it an established role in China’s dairy supply chain and supports meaningful production capacity. Supplying processors and other customers creates a recurring operating model tied to essential dairy consumption rather than a purely discretionary product niche.
Read all positive factors
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. (1117) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$9.87B
Dividend Yield1.08%
Average Volume (3M)13.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth5.12%
EPS Growth90.34%
CountryHK
Employees9,204
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.03
Shares Outstanding7,915,662,000
10 Day Avg. Volume12,920,516
30 Day Avg. Volume13,107,447
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.47
Price to Book (P/B)1.37
Price to Sales (P/S)0.90
P/FCF Ratio-6.93
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$2.08Price Target Upside42.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$14.43B
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. functions as an investment holding company dedicated to the production and sale of milk throughout Mainland China. The company's operations include supplying raw milk to clients for dairy product manufacturing, alo...
How the Company Makes Money
The company primarily makes money by producing and selling raw milk. Its core revenue stream is revenue from raw milk sales, where pricing and volumes are driven by factors such as herd size, milk yield per cow, farm utilization, and prevailing ra...
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
35
Negative
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 13.12B | 12.60B | 13.25B | 13.46B | 12.30B | 7.08B |
| Gross Profit | 3.58B | 3.45B | 3.45B | 3.13B | 3.27B | 2.55B |
| EBITDA | 1.42B | 2.75B | 2.76B | 1.19B | 1.40B | 1.58B |
| Net Income | -196.44M | -1.13B | -1.42B | 175.16M | 562.50M | 1.02B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 36.89B | 36.59B | 33.94B | 31.39B | 28.82B | 23.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.08B | 6.59B | 3.06B | 1.96B | 2.14B | 1.89B |
| Total Debt | 23.40B | 21.59B | 16.90B | 13.52B | 13.54B | 9.06B |
| Total Liabilities | 27.08B | 26.77B | 22.82B | 19.55B | 17.18B | 12.56B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.27B | 8.30B | 9.53B | 11.20B | 11.26B | 10.86B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.02B | -1.64B | -2.02B | 1.12B | -2.48B | -125.57M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.30B | 2.04B | 2.40B | 5.45B | 1.58B | 1.87B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.85B | -3.89B | -3.97B | -3.88B | -3.99B | -2.87B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.15B | 4.42B | 2.00B | -1.63B | 2.59B | 1.64B |
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Technical Analysis
Negative
1.46
Price Trends
1.49
Negative
1.36
Negative
1.38
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.07
Positive
33.06
Neutral
13.39
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1117, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.37, below the 50-day MA of 1.49, and above the 200-day MA of 1.38, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.39 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:1117.
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | HK$1.34B | 1.70 | 11.75% | ― | 12.04% | 144.39% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
45 Neutral | HK$2.01B | -6.49 | -7.21% | 1.28% | 4.62% | -947.50% | |
44 Neutral | HK$9.87B | -42.26 | -2.37% | 1.08% | 5.12% | 90.34% | |
42 Neutral | HK$15.16B | 18.46 | 5.40% | 1.30% | 6.96% | ― |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
HK:1117
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd.
1.25
0.01
0.81%
HK:1431
YuanShengTai Dairy Farm
0.29
0.02
9.62%
HK:1432
China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd
0.24
-0.10
-28.36%
HK:9858
China Youran Dairy Group Limited
3.38
-0.10
-2.74%
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. Corporate Events
China Modern Dairy Publishes Unaudited Nine-Month Results for Modern Farming Unit
Oct 29, 2026
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has disclosed unaudited consolidated financial information for its non-wholly owned subsidiary Modern Farming (Group) Co., Ltd. for the nine months ended 30 September 2026, prepared under PRC GAAP and published in ...
China Modern Dairy Subsidiary Raises RMB500 Million in Perpetual Notes to Fund Green Projects
Oct 27, 2026
China Modern Dairy’s non-wholly owned subsidiary Modern Farming has issued domestic perpetual medium-term notes of RMB500 million in the PRC at a 2.50% annual rate, with an initial 2-year term and perpetual thereafter unless redeemed. The no...
China Modern Dairy Tightens Control of Subsidiary as Investor Waives Share Option
Oct 21, 2026
China Modern Dairy has moved to consolidate control over its Modern Farming Wuhe subsidiary by exercising a redemption right to acquire China Agricultural’s interest ahead of the original 2027 timetable. Following completion of the share tra...
China Modern Dairy Adjusts Voting Control Over China Shengmu Shares After Takeover
Sep 10, 2026
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. and China Shengmu Organic Milk Limited jointly announced a partial lapse of an irrevocable voting proxy previously granted by Start Great Holdings Limited over shares of China Shengmu. The adjustment follows the co...
China Modern Dairy Boosts Raw Milk Scale and Cash Flow with Organic Acquisition
Aug 25, 2026
China Modern Dairy reported interim results for the six months to 30 June 2026 that reflect steady operational growth and an expanding asset base along the full dairy value chain. The acquisition of a majority stake in China Shengmu Organic Milk L...
China Modern Dairy Sets Board Meeting for Interim Results and Dividend Plan
Aug 10, 2026
China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. has scheduled a board meeting for 25 August 2026 to approve its unaudited consolidated financial statements and interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2026. The meeting will also consider whether to recom...
China Modern Dairy Lifts Stake in China Shengmu to 83.5% as Takeover Offer Closes
Aug 3, 2026
China Modern Dairy has closed its mandatory unconditional cash offer for China Shengmu Organic Milk, acquiring valid acceptances for approximately 52.25% of Shengmu’s issued shares. Combined with its existing holdings and concert-party inter...
China Modern Dairy Lifts Stake in Shengmu to 83.5% After Offer Close
Aug 3, 2026
China Modern Dairy Holdings has completed a mandatory unconditional cash offer to acquire all remaining shares of China Shengmu Organic Milk that it did not already own or had agreed to acquire. The offer, conducted through CLSA Limited, closed on...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.