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GooseHead Insurance
(NASDAQ:GSHD)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$48.00
▼(-32.69% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/23/26
The score is anchored by strong operating results and cash generation but is held back materially by balance sheet risk (negative equity and rising debt). Technicals are notably weak with the stock far below key moving averages and negative momentum. The latest earnings call was constructive with raised guidance and strong execution signals, but valuation remains demanding at a 32 P/E and the outlook includes expense-driven margin pressure and contingent-commission variability.
Positive Factors
Policy and Revenue Growth
Double-digit growth in written premiums, policies, and organic revenue indicates continued customer demand and expanding distribution scale. Because Goosehead earns commissions on policies placed and renewed, a larger policy base can support recurring revenue growth and strengthen operating leverage over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Negative Equity and Rising Debt
Negative equity and materially higher debt reduce financial flexibility even as operating results improve. A larger debt burden can constrain investment and capital allocation, while the absence of a positive equity cushion makes the company more sensitive to earnings volatility or weaker cash generation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Policy and Revenue Growth
Double-digit growth in written premiums, policies, and organic revenue indicates continued customer demand and expanding distribution scale. Because Goosehead earns commissions on policies placed and renewed, a larger policy base can support recurring revenue growth and strengthen operating leverage over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
GooseHead Insurance Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Type
Categorizes revenue sources, providing insight into which segments drive the most income and potential areas for growth or diversification.
Categorizes revenue sources, providing insight into which segments drive the most income and potential areas for growth or diversification.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyGooseHead Insurance (GSHD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.56B
Dividend Yield5.56%
Average Volume (3M)408.83K
Price to Earnings (P/E)31.7
Beta (1Y)0.59
Revenue Growth17.74%
EPS Growth18.77%
CountryUS
Employees1,600
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Brokers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.43
Shares Outstanding23,802,805
10 Day Avg. Volume653,423
30 Day Avg. Volume408,833
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-6.80
Price to Book (P/B)-19.26
Price to Sales (P/S)5.04
P/FCF Ratio21.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$68.00Price Target Upside-4.64% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)2.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)$427.15M
GooseHead Insurance Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. functions as the parent entity for Goosehead Financial, LLC, an enterprise dedicated to delivering personal lines insurance brokerage services throughout the United States. Its operational framework is divided into two pr...
How the Company Makes Money
Goosehead primarily makes money by earning commissions and fees tied to insurance policies it sells and services. The company’s core revenue stream is commission income from insurance carriers: when a customer buys a policy through Goosehead, the ...
GooseHead Insurance Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 22, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call emphasized broad-based operational momentum: double-digit premium and policy growth, improving client retention, strong revenue and adjusted EBITDA expansion, substantial gains in producer productivity, successful technology rollouts (Digital Agent and Lily), and accelerating enterprise partnerships. Key upside drivers included a large year-over-year increase in contingent commissions, robust new business commissions and royalties, and continued franchise monetization (average payments to franchises +35% YoY). Offsetting items include planned higher comp and G&A spending tied to growth investments (which may compress margins ex-contingent), contingent commission volatility, moderate pricing declines in auto (and modest home pressure), some one-time implementation and contract termination costs, and a modest cash balance relative to debt. On balance, positives notably outweigh the risks, driven by consistent execution, meaningful top-line and profitability improvements, and a clear path for scaling distribution and technology.Positive Updates
Strong Premium and Policy Growth
Total written premiums grew ~14% year-over-year to approximately $1.36 billion (accelerating from Q1); policies in force increased 15% year-over-year to ~2.1 million, reflecting continued top-line expansion and scale.
Negative Updates
Investment-Driven Expense Growth and Potential Margin Pressure
Management expects comp and G&A to grow in the high-teens to low-20s percent for the year (outpacing core revenue growth) as the company invests in sales talent, technology and service — planning expense increases could cause moderate margin compression on an ex-contingent basis.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Premium and Policy Growth
Total written premiums grew ~14% year-over-year to approximately $1.36 billion (accelerating from Q1); policies in force increased 15% year-over-year to ~2.1 million, reflecting continued top-line expansion and scale.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised full‑year organic revenue guidance to +12%–+19% year‑over‑year and reiterated total written premiums guidance of +12%–+20% y/y, noting core revenue grew ~12% in H1 and should accelerate in H2; contingent commissions are tracking ahead of prior expectations and are now modeled at roughly 70–100 bps of total written premium (vs. prior 60–85 bps), while comp & G&A are expected to grow in the high‑teens to low‑20s percent for the year with planning done on a revenue‑ex‑contingent basis and moderate margin compression expected ex‑contingents.GooseHead Insurance Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 402.16M | 365.30M | 314.50M | 261.28M | 209.39M | 151.31M |
| Gross Profit | 253.03M | 168.94M | 141.56M | 261.28M | 209.39M | 151.31M |
| EBITDA | 115.65M | 85.91M | 64.99M | 42.42M | 17.24M | 13.97M |
| Net Income | 35.29M | 27.83M | 30.43M | 14.14M | 565.00K | 5.40M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 406.84M | 414.86M | 397.65M | 354.89M | 321.35M | 270.29M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 23.66M | 34.39M | 57.97M | 44.05M | 30.39M | 30.48M |
| Total Debt | 372.84M | 352.29M | 153.38M | 143.22M | 165.16M | 174.96M |
| Total Liabilities | 595.37M | 577.65M | 358.58M | 338.11M | 354.98M | 339.48M |
| Stockholders Equity | -112.40M | -95.50M | 43.89M | 56.55M | 10.67M | -14.02M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 82.45M | 86.09M | 70.56M | 38.60M | 23.42M | 20.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 86.15M | 91.76M | 71.54M | 50.76M | 36.03M | 35.44M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -29.41M | -23.54M | -12.42M | -19.18M | -12.57M | -15.38M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -124.88M | -88.25M | -45.20M | -17.92M | -23.55M | -15.83M |
GooseHead Insurance Technical Analysis
Negative
71.31
Price Trends
61.58
Negative
52.29
Negative
53.96
Negative
Market Momentum
-5.48
Positive
26.75
Positive
7.98
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GSHD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 71.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.19, above the 50-day MA of 61.58, and above the 200-day MA of 53.96, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.48 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.75 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.98 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GSHD.
GooseHead Insurance Risk Analysis
GooseHead Insurance disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GooseHead Insurance reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GooseHead Insurance Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $20.28B | 16.82 | 9.62% | 1.08% | 34.22% | 3.21% | |
73 Outperform | $1.31B | 39.36 | 12.67% | ― | 33.12% | 45.43% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
61 Neutral | $1.56B | 31.72 | -32.52% | 5.56% | 17.74% | 18.77% | |
59 Neutral | $76.62M | -6.75 | 10.03% | ― | 6.02% | -144.93% | |
52 Neutral | $4.46B | -27.26 | -10.59% | ― | 18.95% | -275.68% | |
46 Neutral | $4.38M | -0.10 | -88.14% | 3.16% | -21.45% | 82.28% |
* Financial Sector Average
GSHD
GooseHead Insurance
45.36
-25.93
-36.37%
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60.90
-30.97
-33.71%
EZRA
Reliance Global Group
2.28
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-93.66%
BWIN
Baldwin Insurance Group
31.79
4.67
17.22%
SLQT
SelectQuote
0.41
-1.56
-79.34%
TWFG
TWFG, Inc. Class A
24.01
-2.50
-9.43%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.