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Baldwin Insurance Group
(NASDAQ:BWIN)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$30.00
▼(-4.15% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/15/26
The score is primarily held back by weak financial performance (persistent losses, margin volatility, and elevated leverage) despite improving cash flow. Offsetting factors include a generally supportive longer-term technical trend and a constructive earnings outlook (margin/FCF momentum), with the announced take-private transaction adding incremental support.
Positive Factors
Strong Revenue Expansion
Revenue growth from $560 million to $1.74 billion demonstrates substantial expansion in Baldwin’s distribution platform and client reach. Greater scale can support broader carrier relationships, deepen operating leverage, and create a stronger base for future organic growth across commercial, benefits, personal, and specialty offerings.
Negative Factors
Persistent Unprofitability
Persistent net losses and the return to negative TTM operating and gross profit indicate that Baldwin has not yet established dependable earnings quality at its current scale. Margin volatility can limit internally funded investment, weaken resilience, and make future profitability more sensitive to execution and business mix.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Revenue Expansion
Revenue growth from $560 million to $1.74 billion demonstrates substantial expansion in Baldwin’s distribution platform and client reach. Greater scale can support broader carrier relationships, deepen operating leverage, and create a stronger base for future organic growth across commercial, benefits, personal, and specialty offerings.
Read all positive factors
Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.46B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.48M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.52
Revenue Growth18.95%
EPS Growth-275.68%
CountryUS
Employees5,000
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Brokers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.18
Shares Outstanding97,617,600
10 Day Avg. Volume6,519,025
30 Day Avg. Volume3,478,141
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.70
Price to Book (P/B)2.72
Price to Sales (P/S)1.08
P/FCF Ratio-23.68
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$32.10Price Target Upside2.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)2.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.01B
Baldwin Insurance Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Operating across the United States, The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. is an independent firm dedicated to providing insurance and comprehensive risk management services. The company's activities are organized into three primary segments: 1. Insura...
How the Company Makes Money
Baldwin Insurance Group primarily makes money as an insurance intermediary rather than an insurance underwriter. Its core revenue streams are: (1) Commissions: When BWIN places an insurance policy with a third-party carrier (e.g., commercial prope...
Baldwin Insurance Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong operational and financial momentum: sizable adjusted EBITDA growth (+37%), large free cash flow improvement (+437% YoY), substantial partnership and CAC new business wins, meaningful MGA/TPA and MIS progress, and early, measurable AI productivity gains. Key negatives were a GAAP net loss, modest reported organic revenue growth (2%), reinsurance and rate/exposure headwinds (~240 bps), and an $8 million annualized integration‑related revenue attrition. Management characterized many headwinds as transitory and highlighted normalized organic growth (~8%) and guidance for accelerating results in H2. On balance the positives — profitability improvement, cash flow, partnership-driven growth, margin expansion and AI cost savings — outweighed the transitory and segment‑specific challenges.Positive Updates
Revenue and Adjusted Profitability
Total revenue of $493 million in Q2 FY26; adjusted EBITDA of $117 million, up 37% year‑over‑year from $86 million; adjusted EBITDA margin 23.7%, up ~110 basis points versus prior year; adjusted net income $68 million or $0.48 adjusted diluted EPS.
Negative Updates
GAAP Loss and Leverage Constraints
GAAP net loss attributable to Baldwin of $39 million in Q2 (GAAP diluted loss per share $0.42); net leverage ~4.5x (near the communicated upper range), constraining immediate ability to continue share repurchases despite perceived stock dislocation.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Adjusted Profitability
Total revenue of $493 million in Q2 FY26; adjusted EBITDA of $117 million, up 37% year‑over‑year from $86 million; adjusted EBITDA margin 23.7%, up ~110 basis points versus prior year; adjusted net income $68 million or $0.48 adjusted diluted EPS.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q3 revenue of $485–495M with mid‑single‑digit organic revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA of $105–110M and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.42–0.46; for the full year they reiterated mid‑single‑digit organic growth, expect to exit Q4 at high‑single‑digits or greater, and said the full‑year cash‑flow trajectory remains on track for double‑digit adjusted free cash flow growth. For context they reported Q2 results of $493M total revenue, $117M adjusted EBITDA (23.7% margin, +110 bps YoY), $0.48 adjusted diluted EPS, $46M adjusted FCF (up 437% YoY; up 34% YTD), net leverage of ~4.5x after deploying ~$80M to repurchase ~4M shares (about half of a $250M authorization), and noted that normalized Q2 organic growth would have been 8% (reported 2%); they also highlighted CAC momentum (Q2 CAC revenue ~$94M, YTD booked new business >$80M, +43%, sales velocity 59% across CAC, retention >92%), which they expect to help drive acceleration in H2 2026.Baldwin Insurance Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
47
Neutral
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
54
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.74B | 1.50B | 1.38B | 1.21B | 969.49M | 559.97M |
| Gross Profit | 166.43M | 191.98M | 344.19M | 296.38M | 250.05M | 159.92M |
| EBITDA | 61.74M | 196.83M | 164.62M | 116.93M | 87.57M | 65.08M |
| Net Income | -81.24M | -33.81M | -24.52M | -90.14M | -41.77M | -30.65M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.17B | 3.86B | 3.53B | 3.50B | 3.46B | 2.88B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 184.50M | 123.67M | 148.12M | 116.21M | 118.09M | 138.29M |
| Total Debt | 2.69B | 1.77B | 1.64B | 1.63B | 1.47B | 1.04B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.75B | 2.78B | 2.53B | 2.48B | 2.32B | 1.69B |
| Stockholders Equity | 884.43M | 600.22M | 583.22M | 560.41M | 608.10M | 608.38M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 43.71M | -68.94M | 61.10M | 23.27M | -24.44M | 34.81M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 90.77M | -29.42M | 102.15M | 44.64M | -2.46M | 40.13M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -614.94M | -140.28M | 13.30M | -21.92M | -414.36M | -678.47M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 751.16M | 203.82M | -29.64M | -26.23M | 419.55M | 724.06M |
Baldwin Insurance Group Technical Analysis
Positive
31.30
Price Trends
30.18
Positive
26.27
Positive
24.30
Positive
Market Momentum
0.53
Positive
57.20
Neutral
21.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BWIN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 31.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.26, above the 50-day MA of 30.18, and above the 200-day MA of 24.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.53 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BWIN.
Baldwin Insurance Group Risk Analysis
Baldwin Insurance Group disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Baldwin Insurance Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Baldwin Insurance Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $20.28B | 16.82 | 9.62% | 1.08% | 34.22% | 3.21% | |
76 Outperform | $58.37B | 37.40 | 6.67% | 1.21% | 26.74% | -9.60% | |
73 Outperform | $1.31B | 39.36 | 12.67% | ― | 33.12% | 45.43% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
61 Neutral | $1.56B | 31.72 | -32.52% | 5.56% | 17.74% | 18.77% | |
58 Neutral | $9.68B | 38.88 | 31.03% | 1.38% | 13.83% | 69.95% | |
52 Neutral | $4.46B | -27.26 | -10.59% | ― | 18.95% | -275.68% |
* Financial Sector Average
BWIN
Baldwin Insurance Group
31.79
4.67
17.22%
AJG
Arthur J Gallagher & Co
228.11
-74.17
-24.54%
BRO
Brown & Brown
60.90
-30.97
-33.71%
GSHD
GooseHead Insurance
45.36
-25.93
-36.37%
RYAN
Ryan Specialty Group
37.00
-16.79
-31.21%
TWFG
TWFG, Inc. Class A
24.01
-2.50
-9.43%
Baldwin Insurance Group Corporate Events
Delistings and Listing ChangesM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Baldwin Insurance to Go Private in $7.7 Billion Deal
Positive
Sep 14, 2026
On September 14, 2026, Baldwin Insurance Group announced it had signed a definitive agreement to be taken private through a majority investment by Sequence Holdings and DFO Management in an all‑cash deal valuing the company at about $7.7 bil...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.