Great Southern Bancorp (GSBC) AI Stock Analysis

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Great Southern Bancorp

(NASDAQ:GSBC)

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Rating:71Outperform

Price Target:$89.00▲(9.46% Upside)

Action:upgraded

Date:11/07/26

GSBC earns a solid score driven primarily by stable profitability and strong cash generation, with supportive (but moderate) technical uptrend signals. The main constraints are elevated balance-sheet leverage (notably higher debt-to-equity) and a slowing top line, while valuation appears reasonable and the latest earnings call was generally constructive but tempered by expected margin moderation and loan/deposit headwinds.

Positive Factors

Resilient profitability and cash generationStrong margins and close conversion of earnings into free cash flow indicate that reported profitability is supported by cash generation. This gives Great Southern capacity to fund operations, maintain shareholder returns, and absorb moderate pressure on lending or funding costs over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Slowing loan and revenue growthNegative revenue momentum and shrinking loan balances point to a less supportive growth engine for a lending-focused bank. Continued payoffs, refinancing, and declines in commercial real estate and multifamily loans could constrain net interest income and limit operating leverage.

Great Southern Bancorp (GSBC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $867.38M
Dividend Yield: 2.12%
Average Volume (3M): 84.39K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.1
Beta (1Y): 0.50
Revenue Growth: -8.87%
EPS Growth: -3.88%
Country: US
Employees: 966
Sector: Financial
Sector Strength: 68
Industry: Banks - Regional

Great Southern Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. functions as the bank holding company for Great Southern Bank, delivering a wide array of financial services across the United States. For depositors, the institution offers various account types, including standard savin...

How the Company Makes Money

Great Southern Bancorp primarily makes money through Great Southern Bank’s core banking activities. The largest driver of earnings is typically net interest income: the bank earns interest and fees on loans (including residential mortgages, commercia...

Great Southern Bancorp Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 21, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:4.14%|Next Earnings Date:Jan 25, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was predominantly positive. Management reported resilient net interest margin, strong credit metrics, a robust lending pipeline, stable core deposits, capital strength, shareholder returns, and significant expected savings from completed branch and workforce reductions. These positives were partly offset by lower reported earnings, declining loan balances from payoffs and refinancing, lower non-interest income from the hedge accounting adjustment, expected margin moderation, and increases in non-performing assets and other real estate owned.

Positive Updates

Adjusted Operating Earnings Remained Solid

Third-quarter net income was $14.0 million, or $1.27 per diluted common share. Excluding the non-cash hedge accounting adjustment, operating net income was $16.5 million, or $1.50 per diluted common share.

Negative Updates

Reported Net Income Declined Year Over Year and Sequentially

Third-quarter net income was $14.0 million, or $1.27 per diluted common share, compared with $17.8 million, or $1.56 per share, in the third quarter of 2025, and $15.8 million, or $1.43 per share, in the second quarter of 2026.

Company Guidance

Management said the net interest margin could be in the “3.65% to 3.70% range,” with a “fairly modest” decrease from the securities purchase, partially offset by accretion income for “the next six quarters”; approximately $170,000 per month of accretion income is expected through April 2028, fully recovering the $3.5 million charge. The combined federal and state effective tax rate is expected to range generally from 18% to 19.5% in future periods. Banking center consolidations and workforce reductions are expected to produce approximately $4.4 million to $4.8 million in non-interest expense savings beginning in the fourth quarter of 2026 and approximately $2.3 million to $2.7 million in annual pre-tax income improvement beginning in the fourth quarter of this year, with some customer deposit attrition likely replaced by higher-cost alternative funding sources; fourth-quarter expenses are expected to be lower, generally speaking, although there could be some offset from additional technology-related expense.

Great Southern Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability remains solid with resilient net margins (~17%–21%, TTM ~20.5%) and strong cash conversion (FCF ~95% of net income in TTM) plus strong recent FCF growth. Offsetting this, revenue growth has turned slightly negative recently, and the sharp rise in debt-to-equity in TTM (~1.73) is a meaningful balance-sheet risk factor.

Income Statement

74Positive

Balance Sheet

63Positive

Cash Flow

78Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	309.31M	343.30M	355.26M	326.91M	261.12M	236.99M
Gross Profit	213.82M	229.76M	216.99M	226.37M	227.57M	222.00M
EBITDA	75.14M	95.81M	84.45M	94.66M	103.88M	105.50M
Net Income	63.55M	70.97M	61.81M	67.80M	75.95M	74.63M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.82B	5.60B	5.98B	5.81B	5.68B	5.45B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.18B	661.99M	729.13M	689.54M	659.11M	1.22B
Total Debt	1.06B	405.17M	166.34M	172.81M	277.98M	238.32M
Total Liabilities	5.21B	4.96B	5.38B	5.24B	5.15B	4.83B
Stockholders Equity	612.53M	636.13M	599.57M	571.83M	533.09M	616.75M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	63.61M	70.06M	39.14M	73.40M	46.47M	79.24M
Operating Cash Flow	72.90M	81.52M	44.06M	80.70M	66.58M	84.98M
Investing Cash Flow	-161.93M	367.18M	-175.39M	-88.21M	-801.28M	190.71M
Financing Cash Flow	54.53M	-454.90M	115.75M	50.32M	185.95M	-122.15M

Great Southern Bancorp Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price81.31

Price Trends

50DMA79.39Positive

100DMA79.08Positive

200DMA72.52Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.72Positive

RSI54.65Neutral

STOCH35.77Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GSBC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 81.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 80.90, above the 50-day MA of 79.39, and above the 200-day MA of 72.52, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.72 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GSBC.

Great Southern Bancorp Risk Analysis

Great Southern Bancorp disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Great Southern Bancorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

3 New Risks

1.Scrutiny and evolving expectations from customers, regulators, investors, and other stakeholders with respect to our environmental, social and governance practices may impose additional costs on us or expose us to new or additional risks.Q4, 2025

2.Our current and future uses of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and other emerging technologies may create additional risks.Q4, 2024

3.The Company is subject to significant risk if, in the future, it chooses to convert its core or other operating systems and may encounter significant adverse developments.Q4, 2024

Great Southern Bancorp Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

GSBC against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CCBG	76Outperform	$872.90M	13.93	11.12%	2.10%	-0.48%	2.48%
FCBC	75Outperform	$860.68M	13.66	11.86%	5.01%	9.15%	23.27%
EQBK	72Outperform	$1.02B	10.65	11.56%	1.54%	52.75%	266.60%
SMBC	71Outperform	$775.31M	10.45	12.91%	1.47%	3.10%	24.24%
GSBC	71Outperform	$867.38M	14.12	10.07%	2.12%	-8.87%	-3.88%
Sector *	68Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
SMBK	67Neutral	$821.82M	12.96	10.97%	0.71%	9.88%	34.28%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GSBC and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
GSBC	Great Southern	81.31	26.38	48.03%
CCBG	Capital City Bank	51.00	12.47	32.35%
FCBC	First Community Bancshares	45.50	15.70	52.69%
SMBC	Southern Missouri	70.95	18.75	35.93%
EQBK	Equity Bancshares Inc.	49.31	9.23	23.04%
SMBK	SmartFinancial, Inc.	48.07	13.66	39.71%

Great Southern Bancorp Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyDividends

Great Southern Bancorp Declares Consistent Third-Quarter Dividend

Positive

Sep 16, 2026

On September 16, 2026, Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. declared a third-quarter cash dividend of $0.43 per common share, maintaining its regular capital return to investors. The dividend will be paid on October 14, 2026, to shareholders of record on Sep...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 07, 2026

Great Southern Bancorp AI Stock Analysis