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Five Star (FSBC) AI Stock Analysis

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FSBC

Five Star

(NASDAQ:FSBC)

Select Model
Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:$50.00▲(13.12% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:11/10/26

FSBC scores well primarily due to solid financial performance (strong profitability, meaningful revenue growth, and currently conservative leverage) and a constructive earnings call with positive margin/loan-growth outlook and improved efficiency. Valuation is supportive with a moderate P/E and dividend yield, while technical indicators are largely neutral and do not add strong momentum confirmation.

Positive Factors
Revenue and Profitability GrowthSustained revenue expansion alongside strong profitability indicates that Five Star is increasing its commercial banking scale while retaining meaningful earnings power. This supports continued investment in lending capacity, branches and personnel, helping the company compound its regional market presence over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Funding Cost and Pricing PressureHigher deposit costs and aggressive market pricing can narrow the benefit from loan growth and repricing, reducing net interest margin durability. The pressure is especially relevant as Five Star competes for liquidity and must pay more for new relationships, potentially limiting earnings conversion.

Five Star (FSBC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%FSBC+30.39%SPY+10.92%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
$1.08B
Dividend Yield
2.26%
Average Volume (3M)
168.35K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
12.5
Beta (1Y)
0.79
Revenue Growth
18.44%
EPS Growth
31.35%
Country
US
Employees
233
Sector
Financial
Sector Strength
68
Industry
Banks - Regional

Five Star Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Five Star Bancorp serves as the holding company for Five Star Bank, delivering a full spectrum of banking products and services. The institution caters to a diverse clientele, including small and medium-sized businesses, professionals, and individual...

Five Star Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 26, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:-0.12%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 01, 2027
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was strongly positive overall. Management reported higher net income, pretax pre-provision income, net interest income, net interest margin, loans, liquidity and capital, along with improved efficiency and stable credit quality. The company also continued expanding across California and maintained positive loan growth guidance. Offsetting factors included lower return on average equity, modest share dilution, higher deposit funding costs, lower noninterest income, increased expenses, competitive pricing pressure, a slowdown in acquisition financing and continued economic and rate uncertainty.

Positive Updates

Net Income and Profitability Growth
Q3 2026 net income increased to $21.9 million from $19.4 million in Q2 2026, up 13% quarter-over-quarter. Pretax pre-provision income rose to $32 million from $28.3 million, also up 13%.

Negative Updates

Return on Average Equity Declined
Return on average equity declined to 15.04% from 16.67% in Q2 2026, reflecting the impact of the public offering and the resulting increase in equity.

Company Guidance

Management said it was “pretty comfortable with the margin from 3.65% to 3.75%,” expects funding costs to go up “in the next few quarters,” and is “guiding 10% to 12% in Q4 and probably 10% to 12% for 2027” for loan growth; new relationships with noninterest-bearing transactional balances and liquidity balances may be priced “with a 2 handle, blended, maybe high 2s,” while loan repricing is expected to support yields “probably for the next 3 or 4 quarters,” including about $135 million of 5-year loans repricing in the current quarter from a weighted average rate of 4.27% and about $694 million repricing next year from a weighted average rate of 5%, with manufactured home loans repricing to 6.75% to 7.25%; for expenses, management said adding about $200,000 for Q4 2026 would likely be appropriate and expects expenses to remain between 1.45% to 1.50% of average assets.

Five Star Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial statements indicate a profitable, growing regional bank. Revenue has increased materially (from $87.8M in 2021 to $292.6M TTM) and profitability remains strong (TTM net margin 26.5%, EBIT margin ~45%). The balance sheet is currently conservative with low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.14 TTM) and healthy ROE (15.6% TTM), but historical leverage volatility (2022–2023 spike) and recent free-cash-flow growth softness (TTM down 23.1%) temper the score.

Income Statement

78Positive

Balance Sheet

83Very Positive

Cash Flow

69Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue292.62M255.47M212.20M180.70M123.79M87.82M
Gross Profit179.66M148.74M118.01M113.20M102.24M82.15M
EBITDA135.34M86.78M66.60M68.23M64.49M47.76M
Net Income77.57M61.61M45.67M47.73M44.80M42.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.56B4.75B4.05B3.59B3.23B2.56B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments763.64M564.86M454.66M435.52M385.83M588.60M
Total Debt86.08M85.91M80.75M249.35M177.85M28.39M
Total Liabilities4.94B4.31B3.66B3.31B2.97B2.32B
Stockholders Equity617.21M445.83M396.62M285.77M252.82M235.05M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow88.06M71.42M51.16M38.26M45.49M27.94M
Operating Cash Flow89.76M72.61M51.79M38.91M45.98M28.66M
Investing Cash Flow-820.74M-544.11M-446.74M-279.28M-836.92M-455.01M
Financing Cash Flow830.02M626.00M425.73M301.95M625.61M561.19M

Five Star Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price44.20

Price Trends

50DMA44.12Negative
100DMA45.44Negative
200DMA42.49Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.29Negative
RSI50.02Neutral
STOCH27.09Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FSBC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 44.20 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.87, above the 50-day MA of 44.12, and above the 200-day MA of 42.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FSBC.

Five Star Risk Analysis

Five Star disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Five Star reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Five Star Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

FSBC against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
BMRCBMRC85Outperform$464.52M6.7917.18%3.49%-18.89%-221.07%
RCBCRCBC83Outperform$833.81M9.4415.71%0.34%――
WCCBWCCB82Outperform$667.36M11.4314.73%1.59%5.91%44.03%
FSBCFSBC75Outperform$1.08B12.4815.55%2.26%18.44%31.35%
BCALBCAL72Outperform$702.52M12.1210.08%1.90%-4.47%-7.41%
Sector *68Neutral$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
AVBHAVBH64Neutral$381.67M10.8811.60%―-32.49%-159.95%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%20%40%FSBCBMRCBCALAVBHRCBCWCCBDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
FSBC and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
FSBCFive Star Bancorp44.209.8728.75%
BMRCBank Of Marin28.653.5113.95%
BCALCalifornia Bancorp22.063.5319.08%
AVBHAvidbank Holdings 34.719.6438.45%
RCBCRiver City Bank58.7219.1948.54%
WCCBWest Coast Community Bancorp63.4122.6855.70%

Five Star Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes

Five Star Bancorp Appoints Christopher Myers Board Vice Chair

Positive
Nov 9, 2026

On November 4, 2026, Five Star Bancorp appointed Christopher D. Myers to the boards of the company and Five Star Bank, and designated him as a Board vice chairperson and member of the Strategy and Asset Liability Committees. Myers was entitled to pro...

Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing

Five Star Bancorp Reports Strong Q3 Earnings and Growth

Positive
Oct 27, 2026

For the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, Five Star Bancorp reported net income of $21.9 million, up from $19.4 million in the prior quarter and $16.3 million a year earlier, with ROAA at 1.55% and an efficiency ratio improving to 39.13%. Basic...

Dividends

Five Star Bancorp Declares Third-Quarter Cash Dividend

Positive
Oct 19, 2026

On October 16, 2026, Five Star Bancorp announced that its board had declared a third-quarter cash dividend of $0.25 per share on its voting common stock. The dividend was set to be paid on November 9, 2026, to shareholders of record as of November 2,...

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Five Star Bancorp Schedules Q3 2026 Earnings Release

Neutral
Oct 14, 2026

On October 13, 2026, Five Star Bancorp announced the timing of its third‑quarter 2026 financial reporting, covering results for the period ended September 30. The company said it expects to release earnings after the market close on Monday, October 2...

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes

Five Star Bancorp Elevates Community-Focused Executive Leadership

Positive
Sep 17, 2026

On September 14, 2026, Five Star Bancorp appointed Lydia Ramirez as Executive Vice President and Chief External Affairs Officer, a newly created role designed to strengthen the bank’s community engagement as it expands across California. Ramirez, pre...

Executive/Board Changes

Five Star Bancorp Director Donna Lucas Resigns Immediately

Neutral
Sep 10, 2026

On September 4, 2026, Five Star Bancorp director Donna Lucas resigned from the company’s Board of Directors, with the departure effective immediately and formally acknowledged by the company. The company stated that her resignation did not stem from...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 10, 2026