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TrustCo Bank (TRST) AI Stock Analysis

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TRST

TrustCo Bank

(NASDAQ:TRST)

Select Model
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:$64.00▲(11.65% Upside)
Action:upgraded
Date:11/07/26

TRST scores in the low-70s primarily due to solid financial stability and cash conversion, supported by constructive technical momentum. A positive earnings-call outlook and disciplined expense guidance help, while the overall score is held back by evidence of compressed operating profitability versus 2025 and only moderate valuation support.

Positive Factors
Net Interest Income GrowthStrong net interest income growth and a wider margin indicate improving core banking economics. Higher asset yields combined with lower liability costs can support earnings durability, provided the bank sustains deposit funding and disciplined pricing across its lending portfolio.
Negative Factors
Operating Margin CompressionThe decline in operating margin signals pressure on the profitability of TrustCo’s core activities despite positive longer-term revenue expansion. If the weaker spread and expense environment persists, it could limit earnings growth, reduce operating flexibility, and make returns less likely to recover to prior-cycle highs.

TrustCo Bank (TRST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%TRST+50.71%SPY+14.55%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
$1.00B
Dividend Yield
2.69%
Average Volume (3M)
128.71K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
15.2
Beta (1Y)
0.57
Revenue Growth
5.93%
EPS Growth
25.67%
Country
US
Employees
740
Sector
Financial
Sector Strength
68
Industry
Banks - Regional

TrustCo Bank Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TrustCo Bank Corp NY functions as the parent entity for Trustco Bank, a federally regulated savings institution. This subsidiary delivers a comprehensive suite of banking solutions, addressing the financial needs of private individuals, partnerships,...

How the Company Makes Money

TrustCo Bank primarily earns money through traditional banking activities. Its main revenue stream is net interest income: the spread between interest earned on interest-earning assets (primarily loans, and to the extent applicable, investment securi...

TrustCo Bank Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 21, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:5.78%|Next Earnings Date:Jan 25, 2027
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was strongly positive overall. Management highlighted year-over-year growth in net income, net interest income, loans, deposits, book value per share, and net interest margin, along with stable underlying credit performance, recurring wealth-management income, shareholder distributions, and ongoing customer and lending initiatives. The main challenges were a lower equity-to-asset ratio, higher nonperforming loans and assets compared with the prior year, increased provision expense, and some loan-volume effects from higher interest rates; however, management attributed the provision increase primarily to loan growth and economic forecasts and maintained a confident outlook.

Positive Updates

Positive Financial Momentum
Management reported that deposits, average loans, net income, return on average assets, return on average equity, and net interest margin have each grown or improved every quarter on a year-over-year basis. The company said it is optimistic about maintaining positive momentum into 2027.

Negative Updates

Equity-to-Asset Ratio Declined
The consolidated equity-to-asset ratio was 9.72% in the third quarter of 2026, down from 10.9% in the third quarter of 2025, although management described capital as remaining strong.

Company Guidance

Management said it is “optimistic about the company's ability to maintain positive momentum into 2027.” TrustCo will continue to guide the anticipated level of expense not to exceed $200,000 per quarter, and it would expect 2026 total recurring noninterest expense net of ORE expense to be in the range of $27.8 million to $28.2 million per quarter.

TrustCo Bank Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are solid: a conservative leverage profile (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.21) and supportive cash generation (TTM free cash flow ~97% of net income). The main constraint is weaker near-term operating momentum, with revenue down vs 2025 and operating margin compressed (TTM ~18% vs ~29% in 2025), indicating pressure on core earnings power.

Income Statement

66Positive

Balance Sheet

74Positive

Cash Flow

71Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue245.15M278.33M263.15M244.52M205.86M185.92M
Gross Profit154.44M186.72M169.77M188.91M199.74M183.79M
EBITDA53.16M92.67M75.48M88.40M109.97M92.73M
Net Income66.13M61.14M48.83M58.65M75.23M61.52M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.49B6.44B6.24B6.17B6.00B6.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments894.98M293.47M344.52M501.56M524.94M456.07M
Total Debt133.18M156.44M124.94M133.46M294.38M297.41M
Total Liabilities5.86B5.75B5.56B5.52B5.40B5.60B
Stockholders Equity631.33M686.59M676.34M645.28M599.99M601.13M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow69.05M45.74M54.56M58.46M74.84M52.52M
Operating Cash Flow76.82M57.60M59.44M64.13M78.63M55.37M
Investing Cash Flow-252.22M-104.67M-3.75M-233.59M-416.63M-175.26M
Financing Cash Flow77.17M135.69M8.12M96.87M-230.87M232.26M

TrustCo Bank Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price57.32

Price Trends

50DMA56.18Positive
100DMA55.93Positive
200DMA51.20Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.63Negative
RSI54.71Neutral
STOCH37.79Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TRST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 57.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.64, above the 50-day MA of 56.18, and above the 200-day MA of 51.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.63 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TRST.

TrustCo Bank Risk Analysis

TrustCo Bank disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TrustCo Bank reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

3 New Risks
1.Our commercial loan portfolio is increasing and the inherently higher risk of loss may lead to additional provisions for credit losses or charge-offs, which would negatively impact earnings and capital.Q4, 2023
2.Any downgrade in the credit rating of the U.S. government or default by the U.S. government as a result of political conflicts over legislation to raise the U.S. government's debt limit may have a material adverse effect on us.Q4, 2023
3.Increasing scrutiny and evolving expectations from customers, regulators, investors, and other stakeholders with respect to our environmental, social and governance practices may impose additional costs on us or expose us to new or additional risks.Q4, 2023

TrustCo Bank Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

TRST against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
CCNECCNE80Outperform$1.05B9.3213.07%2.11%26.23%91.50%
CACCAC77Outperform$1.00B11.1412.66%2.82%6.01%51.38%
FSBCFSBC76Outperform$1.09B12.5215.55%2.26%18.44%31.35%
ORRFORRF76Outperform$868.06M9.3914.42%2.72%1.02%18.66%
TRSTTRST72Outperform$947.37M15.2010.00%2.69%5.93%25.67%
MPBMPB70Outperform$894.10M11.728.15%2.69%18.49%19.19%
Sector *68Neutral$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%20%40%60%TRSTCACCCNEMPBORRFFSBCDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
TRST and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
TRSTTrustCo Bank Corp NY57.3219.7852.67%
CACCamden National59.4722.3860.33%
CCNECnb Financial35.6011.8850.06%
MPBMid Penn35.287.6427.62%
ORRFOrrstown Financial Services44.1311.4835.15%
FSBCFive Star Bancorp44.3111.8636.53%

TrustCo Bank Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

TrustCo Bank schedules release of Q3 2026 results

Neutral
Oct 13, 2026

On October 13, 2026, TrustCo Bank Corp NY announced it will release its third quarter 2026 financial results on October 21, 2026. The bank also scheduled a conference call for October 22, 2026 to discuss the results, signaling continued communication...

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance

TrustCo Bank adds independent directors, enhances board oversight

Positive
Sep 16, 2026

On September 15, 2026, TrustCo Bank Corp NY’s board of directors unanimously voted to expand its size from nine to eleven members and elected Patricia Kieper-Fusco and Bryan L. Guentner to fill the new seats, with corresponding changes made at subsid...

Dividends

TrustCo Bank Announces Increased Quarterly Cash Dividend

Positive
Aug 18, 2026

On August 18, 2026, TrustCo Bank Corp NY announced that its Board of Directors had approved an increase in the quarterly cash dividend to $0.40 per share, equivalent to $1.60 per share on an annualized basis, representing a 5.3% rise over the prior p...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 07, 2026