Greencore Group (GNCGY) AI Stock Analysis

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Greencore Group

(Other OTC:GNCGY)

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Rating:69Neutral

Price Target:$15.50▼(-1.35% Downside)

Action:downgraded

Date:08/19/26

The overall score reflects a solid financial recovery with improving margins, much lower leverage, and stronger cash generation, balanced against an expensive valuation with a very high P/E and modest dividend yield, while strong upward technical momentum and relatively low beta support the near-term outlook.

Positive Factors

Revenue growthThe latest-year revenue increase shows continued demand for Greencore’s convenience-food offering and supports a constructive operating trajectory. Sustained sales growth can help the company spread fixed costs, reinforce retailer relationships, and provide a base for further earnings improvement.

Negative Factors

Debt-funded balance sheetAlthough leverage has improved, debt still finances a significant share of the asset base. This leaves Greencore exposed to greater financial pressure if operating conditions weaken, and it can restrict flexibility to invest, reduce debt, or absorb unexpected costs.

Greencore Group (GNCGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $1.92B
Dividend Yield: 0.89%
Average Volume (3M): 8,516
Price to Earnings (P/E): 94.0
Beta (1Y): 0.38
Revenue Growth: 32.09%
EPS Growth: -71.57%
Country: US
Employees: 13,300
Sector: Consumer Defensive
Sector Strength: 62
Industry: Packaged Foods

Greencore Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Greencore Group plc, through its various subsidiaries, specializes in the production and distribution of convenience food items, primarily serving markets in the United Kingdom and Ireland. Their diverse product range includes sandwiches, fresh salad...

Greencore Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 17, 2025(Q4-2025)|% Change Since:33.95%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 30, 2026

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The earnings call reflects a strong year of financial performance with record achievements in ROIC and revenue growth. The company's focus on innovation, operational excellence, and strategic acquisitions signifies a positive outlook for future growth. However, challenges remain in achieving the operating margin target and addressing inflationary pressures.

Positive Updates

Record ROIC Achievement

Achieved a 15% Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), an increase of 350 basis points on FY '24, surpassing medium-term financial targets.

Negative Updates

Missed Operating Margin Target

Adjusted operating margin grew by 110 basis points to 6.5%, which is still short of the medium-term target of 7% or above.

Company Guidance

In the call, Dalton Philips and Catherine Gubbins discussed the company's exceptional performance in FY '25, highlighting several key metrics. They achieved a 15% return on invested capital (ROIC), marking a 350 basis point increase from FY '24. The company reported revenue of just under GBP 2 billion, a 7.7% year-on-year growth, with an adjusted operating profit rising by 28.9% to GBP 125.7 million. The adjusted operating margin improved by 110 basis points to 6.5%, though still shy of their 7% medium-term target. Manufactured volume growth was 2.5%, surpassing the overall grocery market. Free cash flow was strong at GBP 120.5 million, and leverage closed at 0.4x net debt to EBITDA. They also announced the acquisition of Bakkavor, with expected synergies of at least GBP 80 million. The company's strategic focus on innovation, operational excellence, and cost efficiency contributed to these results, with plans to continue leveraging these areas for future growth.

Greencore Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue and profits have grown with improving margins, leverage has fallen and equity increased, and cash generation is much healthier, but profitability and cash flows remain moderate and somewhat volatile.

Income Statement

74Positive

Balance Sheet

82Very Positive

Cash Flow

70Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.36B	1.95B	1.81B	1.91B	1.74B	1.32B
Gross Profit	711.63M	632.50M	599.60M	568.80M	523.00M	422.90M
EBITDA	203.65M	158.70M	147.80M	128.40M	127.60M	104.70M
Net Income	6.45M	57.60M	46.30M	35.90M	32.30M	25.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.82B	1.27B	1.20B	1.30B	1.34B	1.29B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	197.70M	81.80M	57.30M	117.00M	99.60M	119.10M
Total Debt	1.15B	207.70M	250.30M	315.50M	327.60M	364.50M
Total Liabilities	2.39B	780.70M	754.50M	837.90M	873.10M	868.30M
Stockholders Equity	1.43B	492.00M	450.20M	459.80M	465.60M	423.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	15.83M	122.20M	79.60M	61.60M	42.90M	62.50M
Operating Cash Flow	61.83M	165.60M	112.00M	99.00M	92.90M	102.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-520.85M	-43.40M	-31.70M	-31.30M	-50.00M	-17.60M
Financing Cash Flow	494.64M	-85.50M	-98.70M	-81.50M	-69.40M	-58.10M

Greencore Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price15.71

Price Trends

50DMA14.00Positive

100DMA13.11Positive

200DMA13.34Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.57Negative

RSI79.33Negative

STOCH97.79Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GNCGY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.56, above the 50-day MA of 14.00, and above the 200-day MA of 13.34, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 79.33 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.79 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GNCGY.

Greencore Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

GNCGY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MZTI	79Outperform	$2.99B	15.72	18.82%	3.64%	1.08%	14.93%
GNCGY	69Neutral	$3.15B	93.97	0.73%	0.89%	32.09%	-71.57%
JJSF	68Neutral	$1.60B	32.66	5.40%	3.75%	-4.69%	-39.51%
MAMA	68Neutral	$597.83M	70.06	9.10%	―	53.88%	48.88%
NOMD	65Neutral	$1.68B	12.39	4.94%	5.65%	3.56%	-31.26%
Sector *	62Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
FLO	45Neutral	$1.33B	24.11	4.13%	11.88%	2.46%	-75.05%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GNCGY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
GNCGY	Greencore Group Plc Sponsored ADR	15.71	3.41	27.70%
FLO	Flowers Foods	6.27	-4.62	-42.41%
JJSF	J & J Snack Foods	85.39	3.56	4.35%
MZTI	Marzetti Company	109.74	-43.65	-28.46%
NOMD	Nomad Foods Ltd.	12.03	1.48	14.07%
MAMA	Mama's Creations, Inc.	12.68	1.92	17.84%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 08, 2026

Greencore Group AI Stock Analysis