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Gevo (GEVO)
NASDAQ:GEVO

Gevo (GEVO) AI Stock Analysis

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GE

Gevo

(NASDAQ:GEVO)

Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▲(8.70%Upside)
Gevo's stock score reflects strong revenue growth and strategic initiatives, but profitability challenges and valuation concerns weigh heavily. Technical indicators are positive, but caution is advised due to near-overbought conditions. The earnings call highlighted positive developments, but financial and operational hurdles remain.
Positive Factors
Cost Management
The sale of the Luverne facility is seen as a positive move for Gevo, as it is expected to lower operating costs by $3M annually.
Revenue Growth
Gevo announced its 1Q25 results, with revenue of $29.1M compared to $4.0M in 1Q24, showing a 630% year-over-year increase.
Tax Credits
The company is positioned to benefit from the extension of the 45Z tax credit for biofuel producers, which could strengthen its financial position.
Negative Factors
Equity Dilution
The company is working on closing the $1.6B U.S. Department of Energy loan while arranging equity investors to limit dilution.
Project Dependency
The company expects the Alcohol-to-Jet 60 project to reach financial close during 2025, enhancing revenue streams.

Gevo (GEVO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Gevo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGevo, Inc. operates as a renewable fuels company. It operates through four segments: Gevo, Agri-Energy, Renewable Natural Gas, and Net-Zero. The company commercializes gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel fuel to achieve zero carbon emissions, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions with sustainable alternatives. Its products also include renewable gasoline and diesel, isooctane, isobutanol, sustainable aviation fuel, renewable natural gas, isobutylene, ethanol, and animal feed and protein. Gevo, Inc. has a strategic alliance with Axens North America, Inc. for ethanol-to-jet technology and sustainable aviation fuel commercial project development. The company was formerly known as Methanotech, Inc. and changed its name to Gevo, Inc. in March 2006. Gevo, Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Englewood, Colorado.
How the Company Makes MoneyGevo makes money through the production and sale of renewable fuels and chemicals. The company's revenue model is primarily based on the sale of isobutanol, ethanol, and renewable hydrocarbons to customers in the transportation and petrochemical industries. Gevo's key revenue streams include its proprietary production processes for converting renewable resources into high-value chemicals and fuels. Additionally, the company engages in strategic partnerships and licensing agreements to enhance its production capabilities and expand market reach. Government incentives, renewable energy mandates, and carbon credit markets also play a significant role in supporting Gevo's earnings by providing financial benefits for the adoption of sustainable technologies.

Gevo Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 11.29%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call for Gevo Incorporated highlighted significant revenue growth and strategic advancements, particularly with the Gevo North Dakota acquisition and the 45Z tax credit monetization. However, the company still faces financial losses and some uncertainty regarding DOE loan timelines and legislative changes. While the positive developments suggest a promising trajectory, the challenges indicate that Gevo must navigate financial and operational hurdles to maintain its momentum.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Positive EBITDA Outlook
Generated $29 million in revenue in Q1 2025 with only two months of operations at Gevo North Dakota. The company anticipates being EBITDA positive this year, indicating a strong growth trajectory.
Gevo North Dakota Performance
Gevo North Dakota produced over 11 million gallons of low carbon ethanol, over 40,000 tons of high protein animal feed, and 3 million pounds of corn oil in just two months, showcasing strong operational performance.
Positive Market Reception and Strategic Partnerships
Signed a groundbreaking offtake agreement with Future Energy Global, highlighting the market's recognition of Gevo's carbon attributes and expanding its market reach.
45Z Tax Credit Approval and Monetization
Received IRS approval to apply for the 45Z tax credit, expected to significantly boost EBITDA growth. Gevo North Dakota is one of only two ethanol plants benefiting from this credit.
Carbon Abatement Success
Captured and sequestered 29,000 metric tons of CO2, generating over 100,000 metric tons of carbon abatement last quarter, positioning Gevo as a leader in carbon sequestration.
Negative Updates
Operating Loss and Cash Flow Challenges
Company-wide consolidated loss from operations was $20.1 million last quarter, with a non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA loss of $15.4 million, indicating ongoing financial challenges despite revenue growth.
Uncertain DOE Loan Timeline
The timeline for the Department of Energy loan for the ATJ60 project remains uncertain, potentially affecting project financing and development.
Market Noise and Legislative Uncertainty
Gevo faces significant market noise and legislative uncertainty, particularly around the 45Z tax credit and indirect land use changes, which could impact future financials.
Company Guidance
During Gevo Inc.'s first quarter 2025 earnings call, CEO Patrick Gruber provided guidance emphasizing a promising outlook driven by several key metrics. In Q1 2025, Gevo generated $29 million in revenue with just two months of operations at Gevo North Dakota, which produced 11 million gallons of low-carbon ethanol. The company reported a consolidated operating revenue and net income of $30.9 million and ended the quarter with $135 million in cash and equivalents. For the two months of operation, Gevo North Dakota achieved an income from operations of $0.5 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $1.8 million. Furthermore, Gruber highlighted the company's successful integration of carbon sequestration initiatives, with 29,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide sequestered and a low carbon intensity score of about 20, which positions the company well for monetizing the 45Z tax credits. Gruber expressed confidence in achieving positive EBITDA for the full year, driven by the anticipated benefits from the 45Z tax credits and improved profitability from renewable natural gas (RNG) operations, which generated $5.7 million in revenue, reflecting an increase of $1.7 million compared to the previous year.

Gevo Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Gevo's financial performance reveals significant revenue growth and a strong equity base, but persistent net losses, negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, and negative cash flow highlight ongoing operational and financial challenges.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The income statement reveals a significant revenue increase in the TTM with a gross profit margin of 26.57%, indicating improving profitability. However, persistent net losses and negative EBIT and EBITDA margins suggest ongoing operational challenges. Despite a remarkable revenue growth rate, the lack of profitability remains a concern.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a stable equity position with a moderate debt level. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.01, indicating low leverage. However, the equity ratio has decreased over time, reflecting increased liabilities. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial stability but lacks improvement in asset utilization.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis indicates challenges, with negative free cash flow and deteriorating free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests operational struggles. Although financing activities have provided cash inflow, the negative cash flow from investing highlights capital expenditure pressure.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
42.03M16.91M17.20M1.18M711.00K5.31M
Gross Profit
11.17M4.91M5.21M-7.52M-11.45M-9.69M
EBIT
-87.82M-90.82M-81.83M-102.69M-60.09M-26.34M
EBITDA
-55.44M-56.46M-45.05M-88.95M-53.82M-32.13M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-81.49M-78.64M-66.22M-118.58M-59.38M-39.15M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
65.29M189.39M298.35M404.53M316.17M78.34M
Total Assets
677.80M583.94M650.32M700.75M666.48M152.10M
Total Debt
4.35M70.62M70.18M69.69M90.85M1.27M
Net Debt
-60.94M-118.77M-228.17M-167.43M50.01M-77.07M
Total Liabilities
203.01M94.45M92.93M95.27M119.22M5.72M
Stockholders Equity
469.84M489.49M557.39M605.48M547.25M146.38M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-98.93M-108.47M-108.17M-128.40M-112.37M-25.24M
Operating Cash Flow
-65.35M-57.38M-53.72M-52.61M-43.54M-19.34M
Investing Cash Flow
-238.60M-51.82M114.13M93.39M-411.62M-5.91M
Financing Cash Flow
98.33M-7.36M-189.00K138.56M512.85M87.28M

Gevo Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1.38
Price Trends
50DMA
1.17
Positive
100DMA
1.31
Positive
200DMA
1.55
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.05
Negative
RSI
63.85
Neutral
STOCH
87.99
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEVO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.21, above the 50-day MA of 1.17, and below the 200-day MA of 1.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.99 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GEVO.

Gevo Risk Analysis

Gevo disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Gevo reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Gevo Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
REREX
72
Outperform
$785.89M15.0210.68%-18.36%-13.81%
KRKRO
67
Neutral
$714.38M7.4211.87%3.22%10.42%
SCSCL
66
Neutral
$1.24B22.414.65%2.85%-0.16%47.70%
53
Neutral
$330.60M-16.11%145.38%-22.02%
52
Neutral
$379.97M-12.34%-19.82%-34.91%
51
Neutral
$2.01B-1.26-21.11%4.38%2.92%-30.46%
50
Neutral
$90.34M-24.43%-17.27%-112.62%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GEVO
Gevo
1.38
0.79
133.90%
GPRE
Green Plains
5.65
-9.14
-61.80%
KRO
Kronos Worldwide
6.09
-6.81
-52.79%
ALTO
Alto Ingredients
1.16
-0.15
-11.45%
REX
Rex American
49.53
4.67
10.41%
SCL
Stepan Company
54.24
-27.46
-33.61%

Gevo Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Gevo Appoints New CFO and Expands Board
Neutral
May 27, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Gevo, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where significant changes were approved, including an amendment to the 2010 Stock Incentive Plan, increasing authorized shares by 15 million and extending the plan’s term to 2035. Additionally, Oluwagbemileke Agiri was appointed as the new Chief Financial Officer, succeeding L. Lynn Smull, who transitioned to a senior advisory role. The Board also expanded to include Dr. James J. Barber as a new director, enhancing the company’s governance with his extensive experience in the energy and technology sectors.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEVO) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gevo stock, see the GEVO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.