Gevo (GEVO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $330.60M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.35M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.98
• Revenue Growth: 145.38%
• EPS Growth: -22.02%
• Country: US
• Employees: 122
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 67
• Industry: Chemicals - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): -0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 239,562,990
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,589,714
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,348,947
• PEG Ratio: -0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.70
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.77
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.73
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 22.69
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.13
• 1Y Price Target: $14.00
• Price Target Upside: 914.49% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▲(8.70%Upside)

Gevo's stock score reflects strong revenue growth and strategic initiatives, but profitability challenges and valuation concerns weigh heavily. Technical indicators are positive, but caution is advised due to near-overbought conditions. The earnings call highlighted positive developments, but financial and operational hurdles remain.

Positive Factors

Cost Management

The sale of the Luverne facility is seen as a positive move for Gevo, as it is expected to lower operating costs by $3M annually.

Revenue Growth

Gevo announced its 1Q25 results, with revenue of $29.1M compared to $4.0M in 1Q24, showing a 630% year-over-year increase.

Tax Credits

The company is positioned to benefit from the extension of the 45Z tax credit for biofuel producers, which could strengthen its financial position.

Negative Factors

Equity Dilution

The company is working on closing the $1.6B U.S. Department of Energy loan while arranging equity investors to limit dilution.

Project Dependency

The company expects the Alcohol-to-Jet 60 project to reach financial close during 2025, enhancing revenue streams.

Gevo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Gevo, Inc. operates as a renewable fuels company. It operates through four segments: Gevo, Agri-Energy, Renewable Natural Gas, and Net-Zero. The company commercializes gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel fuel to achieve zero carbon emissions, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions with sustainable alternatives. Its products also include renewable gasoline and diesel, isooctane, isobutanol, sustainable aviation fuel, renewable natural gas, isobutylene, ethanol, and animal feed and protein. Gevo, Inc. has a strategic alliance with Axens North America, Inc. for ethanol-to-jet technology and sustainable aviation fuel commercial project development. The company was formerly known as Methanotech, Inc. and changed its name to Gevo, Inc. in March 2006. Gevo, Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Englewood, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Gevo makes money through the production and sale of renewable fuels and chemicals. The company's revenue model is primarily based on the sale of isobutanol, ethanol, and renewable hydrocarbons to customers in the transportation and petrochemical industries. Gevo's key revenue streams include its proprietary production processes for converting renewable resources into high-value chemicals and fuels. Additionally, the company engages in strategic partnerships and licensing agreements to enhance its production capabilities and expand market reach. Government incentives, renewable energy mandates, and carbon credit markets also play a significant role in supporting Gevo's earnings by providing financial benefits for the adoption of sustainable technologies.

Gevo Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Gevo's financial performance reveals significant revenue growth and a strong equity base, but persistent net losses, negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, and negative cash flow highlight ongoing operational and financial challenges.

Income Statement

The income statement reveals a significant revenue increase in the TTM with a gross profit margin of 26.57%, indicating improving profitability. However, persistent net losses and negative EBIT and EBITDA margins suggest ongoing operational challenges. Despite a remarkable revenue growth rate, the lack of profitability remains a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a stable equity position with a moderate debt level. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.01, indicating low leverage. However, the equity ratio has decreased over time, reflecting increased liabilities. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial stability but lacks improvement in asset utilization.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates challenges, with negative free cash flow and deteriorating free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests operational struggles. Although financing activities have provided cash inflow, the negative cash flow from investing highlights capital expenditure pressure.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
42.03M	16.91M	17.20M	1.18M	711.00K	5.31M
	Gross Profit
11.17M	4.91M	5.21M	-7.52M	-11.45M	-9.69M
	EBIT
-87.82M	-90.82M	-81.83M	-102.69M	-60.09M	-26.34M
	EBITDA
-55.44M	-56.46M	-45.05M	-88.95M	-53.82M	-32.13M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-81.49M	-78.64M	-66.22M	-118.58M	-59.38M	-39.15M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
65.29M	189.39M	298.35M	404.53M	316.17M	78.34M
	Total Assets
677.80M	583.94M	650.32M	700.75M	666.48M	152.10M
	Total Debt
4.35M	70.62M	70.18M	69.69M	90.85M	1.27M
	Net Debt
-60.94M	-118.77M	-228.17M	-167.43M	50.01M	-77.07M
	Total Liabilities
203.01M	94.45M	92.93M	95.27M	119.22M	5.72M
	Stockholders Equity
469.84M	489.49M	557.39M	605.48M	547.25M	146.38M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-98.93M	-108.47M	-108.17M	-128.40M	-112.37M	-25.24M
	Operating Cash Flow
-65.35M	-57.38M	-53.72M	-52.61M	-43.54M	-19.34M
	Investing Cash Flow
-238.60M	-51.82M	114.13M	93.39M	-411.62M	-5.91M
	Financing Cash Flow
98.33M	-7.36M	-189.00K	138.56M	512.85M	87.28M

Gevo Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.38
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEVO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.21, above the 50-day MA of 1.17, and below the 200-day MA of 1.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.99 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GEVO.

Gevo Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
REX	72 Outperform	$785.89M	15.02	10.68%	―	-18.36%	-13.81%
KRO	67 Neutral	$714.38M	7.42	11.87%	3.22%	10.42%	―
SCL	66 Neutral	$1.24B	22.41	4.65%	2.85%	-0.16%	47.70%
GEVO	53 Neutral	$330.60M	―	-16.11%	―	145.38%	-22.02%
GPRE	52 Neutral	$379.97M	―	-12.34%	―	-19.82%	-34.91%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$2.01B	-1.26	-21.11%	4.38%	2.92%	-30.46%
ALTO	50 Neutral	$90.34M	―	-24.43%	―	-17.27%	-112.62%

Gevo Corporate Events

Gevo Appoints New CFO and Expands Board

On May 21, 2025, Gevo, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where significant changes were approved, including an amendment to the 2010 Stock Incentive Plan, increasing authorized shares by 15 million and extending the plan’s term to 2035. Additionally, Oluwagbemileke Agiri was appointed as the new Chief Financial Officer, succeeding L. Lynn Smull, who transitioned to a senior advisory role. The Board also expanded to include Dr. James J. Barber as a new director, enhancing the company’s governance with his extensive experience in the energy and technology sectors.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEVO) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gevo stock, see the GEVO Stock Forecast page.