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Green Plains
(NASDAQ:GPRE)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$17.00
▲(0.29% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
The score is driven primarily by a meaningful financial recovery (return to profitability and improving leverage) and a strong, optimistic earnings call with improved EBITDA, cash generation, and utilization guidance. These positives are tempered by weak near-term technicals (trading below key short-term moving averages) and limited valuation support given a negative P/E and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Profitability Recovery
The return to positive earnings and solid operating margins marks a material recovery from prior annual losses. Sustained profitability would improve financial flexibility, support debt reduction and provide a stronger base for ongoing investment.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue Trend
The revenue contraction indicates that improved margins have not yet been matched by durable top-line growth. Continued pressure from product pricing, volumes or end markets could limit earnings expansion and make the recent profitability recovery less resilient.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability Recovery
The return to positive earnings and solid operating margins marks a material recovery from prior annual losses. Sustained profitability would improve financial flexibility, support debt reduction and provide a stronger base for ongoing investment.
Read all positive factors
Green Plains Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Ethanol Gallons Sold
Measures the volume of ethanol sold, indicating the company's market share in the biofuel industry and its ability to meet demand for renewable energy sources.
Measures the volume of ethanol sold, indicating the company's market share in the biofuel industry and its ability to meet demand for renewable energy sources.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyGreen Plains (GPRE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.14B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.39M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.1
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth-21.51%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees642
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.79
Shares Outstanding70,095,330
10 Day Avg. Volume1,551,498
30 Day Avg. Volume1,390,126
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.14
Price to Book (P/B)0.86
Price to Sales (P/S)0.32
P/FCF Ratio10.26
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$19.00Price Target Upside12.09% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)1.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.12B
Green Plains Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Green Plains Inc. is primarily engaged in the manufacturing, marketing, and worldwide distribution of ethanol, serving both domestic and international markets. The company's operations are organized into three principal divisions: Ethanol Producti...
How the Company Makes Money
Green Plains makes money primarily by converting corn into ethanol and other co-products and selling those outputs into energy, feed, and industrial markets. Its key revenue streams include: (1) Ethanol sales: the largest source of revenue, earned...
Green Plains Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial momentum: materially higher adjusted EBITDA, large YoY improvement, robust cash generation, improving carbon economics and disciplined cost control. The primary negatives were near-term planned downtime (already accounted for), unmonetized 2026 tax credits (timing/partnering uncertainty), commodity mark-to-market volatility and an outstanding debt balance. Overall, the positives — especially the large earnings improvement, cash generation and growing carbon contribution — substantially outweigh the listed challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Significant YoY Improvement
Adjusted EBITDA of $93.3M in Q2 2026, up 30.5% sequentially from $71.5M in Q1 2026 and up ~469% from $16.4M in Q2 2025, demonstrating materially improved operating performance year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter.
Negative Updates
Planned Maintenance and Downtime Impacted Utilization
Q2 utilization averaged nearly 90% due in part to planned spring maintenance and a molecular sieve bead change-out at Madison (an operation occurring every 8–10 years), creating short-term downtime versus the ~95% annual target.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Significant YoY Improvement
Adjusted EBITDA of $93.3M in Q2 2026, up 30.5% sequentially from $71.5M in Q1 2026 and up ~469% from $16.4M in Q2 2025, demonstrating materially improved operating performance year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to roughly 95% full‑year capacity utilization (Q2 averaged nearly 90% with ~161 million gallons produced and >54 million bushels ground) and expects utilization to recover into Q3 toward that 95% target; Q2 results included adjusted EBITDA of $93.3M (up from $71.5M in Q1 and $16.4M in Q2 2025), net income attributable to Green Plains of $67.1M or $0.83 per diluted share, gross margin of $113M, carbon platform net EBITDA of ~ $59M in Q2 ($55.2M in Q1; H1 carbon EBITDA ≈ $114M), and operating cash flow of nearly $87M with cash > $243M and total debt ≈ $484M at quarter end. They noted receipt of $41M related to 2025 45Z credits but have not monetized 2026 credits, Q2 SG&A ≈ $21M (FY SG&A target ≈ $90M), interest expense $8M in Q2 (FY ≈ $35M), depreciation & amortization $23M, CapEx ~$11M in Q2 with sustaining CapEx expected near $25M for the year, corn oil yields were ~7% above normal in the quarter, and U.S. ethanol exports are forecasted around 2.4B (2.5B possible), while reiterating priorities to use free cash flow for sustaining capital, debt reduction (leveraging carbon cash flows to lower leverage beyond 2029), targeted reinvestment and disciplined growth.Green Plains Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.84B | 2.09B | 2.46B | 3.30B | 3.66B | 2.83B |
| Gross Profit | 184.54M | 38.49M | 130.45M | 164.75M | 112.68M | 179.00M |
| EBITDA | 236.67M | 31.29M | 52.38M | 53.60M | 26.64M | 116.09M |
| Net Income | 123.95M | -121.28M | -82.50M | -93.38M | -127.22M | -65.99M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.66B | 1.58B | 1.78B | 1.94B | 2.12B | 2.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 185.38M | 182.32M | 173.04M | 349.57M | 444.66M | 551.08M |
| Total Debt | 548.63M | 508.35M | 649.31M | 676.51M | 711.00M | 789.32M |
| Total Liabilities | 787.22M | 806.42M | 907.64M | 949.27M | 1.06B | 1.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | 869.93M | 766.25M | 865.22M | 843.73M | 910.03M | 950.50M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 118.17M | 64.44M | -125.05M | -51.75M | -142.66M | -182.95M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 144.66M | 101.64M | -29.96M | 56.35M | 69.71M | 4.25M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 179.33M | 162.13M | -62.05M | -106.90M | -105.25M | -236.28M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -233.64M | -243.04M | -77.35M | -70.96M | -25.14M | 518.19M |
Green Plains Technical Analysis
Positive
16.95
Price Trends
16.02
Positive
16.10
Positive
14.09
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.11
Negative
51.52
Neutral
77.01
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPRE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.05, above the 50-day MA of 16.02, and above the 200-day MA of 14.09, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GPRE.
Green Plains Risk Analysis
Green Plains disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Green Plains reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Green Plains Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $1.47B | 15.90 | 15.77% | ― | 2.95% | 73.25% | |
72 Outperform | $800.61M | 22.28 | 6.98% | ― | 22.12% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $1.14B | 9.08 | 15.54% | ― | -21.51% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
42 Neutral | $6.17M | -0.10 | -31.41% | ― | 231.79% | 41.03% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GPRE
Green Plains
16.25
6.84
72.69%
GURE
Gulf Resources
3.40
-4.10
-54.67%
LXU
Lsb Industries
11.12
2.78
33.33%
REX
Rex American
44.67
14.33
47.23%
Green Plains Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Green Plains Shareholders Approve Governance and Compensation Measures
Positive
Jun 11, 2026
Green Plains Inc. held its 2026 annual meeting of shareholders on June 5, 2026, where investors elected nine directors to one-year terms expiring at the 2027 meeting, with all nominees receiving strong support despite elevated withhold votes for o...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.