Alto Ingredients, Inc. (ALTO)
NASDAQ:ALTO
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Alto Ingredients
(NASDAQ:ALTO)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▲(11.34% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/27/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (return to profitability, strong TTM free cash flow, and manageable leverage), tempered by persistent revenue contraction and thin margins. Technicals are supportive with price above major moving averages but mixed momentum indicators. Valuation is moderate based on the ~21 P/E, while the earnings call adds support from improved results and a clearer 45Z/capex roadmap alongside execution and cost volatility risks.
Positive Factors
Return to Profitability
A credible earnings inflection (Q1 net income and adjusted EBITDA turnaround) signals durable operational fixes and margin recovery. Sustained profitability improves ability to fund maintenance/capex, de-lever, and support free cash flow generation, strengthening financial flexibility over months.
Negative Factors
Persistent Revenue Decline
A multiyear shrinking topline reduces operating leverage and scale advantages, pressuring margins and making profits more dependent on volatile co-product and export premiums. Continued revenue contraction hampers sustainable margin expansion and long-term growth prospects.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Return to Profitability
A credible earnings inflection (Q1 net income and adjusted EBITDA turnaround) signals durable operational fixes and margin recovery. Sustained profitability improves ability to fund maintenance/capex, de-lever, and support free cash flow generation, strengthening financial flexibility over months.
Read all positive factors
Alto Ingredients (ALTO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$436.25M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.27M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.4
Beta (1Y)0.06
Revenue Growth-3.69%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees393
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.38
Shares Outstanding77,485,150
10 Day Avg. Volume2,696,525
30 Day Avg. Volume2,267,917
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.13
Price to Book (P/B)0.87
Price to Sales (P/S)0.23
P/FCF Ratio24.81
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.13
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.54
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.31
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.38
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.00Price Target Upside102.43% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.3
Revenue Forecast (FY)$953.08M
Alto Ingredients Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alto Ingredients, Inc., operating within the United States, specializes in the production and commercialization of both specialty alcohols and various essential ingredients. Its operations are structured into three distinct segments: Marketing and...
How the Company Makes Money
Alto Ingredients makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling alcohol products and related co-products. Its core revenue stream is the sale of alcohols, which include (1) fuel-grade ethanol sold into transportation fuels markets and (2) spec...
Alto Ingredients Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a positive operational and financial inflection: the company returned to profitability, achieved a meaningful adjusted EBITDA turnaround, improved ingredient returns and captured incremental revenue from exports, co-products and early 45Z credits. Management also outlined clear optimization and capital projects to lift capacity and qualify additional low-carbon gallons. Offsetting risks include temporary production curtailments and outages, higher energy and maintenance costs, dependence on external parties to lower carbon intensity and market/geopolitical volatility that could pressure margins. Overall, the positives (profitability, margin improvement, tangible project pipeline and tax-credit runway) outweigh the challenges, though execution and market dynamics will remain key.Positive Updates
Return to Profitability
Net income attributable to common stockholders of $4.0 million in Q1 2026 versus a net loss of $12.0 million in Q1 2025, an improvement of $16.0 million. Adjusted EBITDA improved to $4.7 million from negative $4.4 million a year ago, a $9.1 million increase.
Negative Updates
Volume Curtailment and Outages
Overall volumes sold decreased 4% (3.7 million gallons), largely due to production curtailment at Pekin caused by disrupted river logistics during an extended cold spell and planned outages (Columbia outage and upcoming ICP outage). High-quality alcohol volumes sold decreased by 1.3 million gallons.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Return to Profitability
Net income attributable to common stockholders of $4.0 million in Q1 2026 versus a net loss of $12.0 million in Q1 2025, an improvement of $16.0 million. Adjusted EBITDA improved to $4.7 million from negative $4.4 million a year ago, a $9.1 million increase.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to several quantifiable near‑term and 2026 priorities: targeting ~90 million gallons of combined Columbia/Pekin production to qualify for 45Z at $0.20/gal (≈$15 million net proceeds annually) — with $3.9 million of 45Z recognized in Q1 and the sale of 2025 credits expected to close this month — and plans to spend about $25 million in 2026 CapEx (Q1 CapEx $1 million) to complete projects including a second alcohol dock and dock repairs, a third CO2 storage tank, and a dry‑mill debottleneck that adds ~8% (≈5 million gallons/year) of capacity to be realized by Q4; financial metrics cited include Q1 consolidated net sales of $225 million (down $2 million), volumes sold down 4% (≈3.7 million gallons) while average price rose 4% to $2.00/gal, consolidated return on essential ingredients improving to 53.4% from 48.2%, gross profit $9.2 million versus a $1.8 million loss a year ago (≈$11 million swing), crush margin $0.17/gal vs $0.02/gal (≈$5.2 million benefit), adjusted EBITDA improving $9.1 million to $4.7 million (from –$4.4 million), net income $4.0 million ($0.05/sh) vs a $12 million loss ($0.16/sh) prior year, Q1 cash $20 million and operating cash flow $4 million, $16.6 million principal repaid on term debt (term loan balance $38.4 million) and total borrowing availability of $94 million ($29 million LOC, $65 million term facility); headwinds called out include $5.3 million higher gas/electric costs and $2.4 million higher repair & maintenance, while protein feed/corn oil added ~$2.2 million and high‑quality alcohol volumes fell 1.3 million gallons (reducing revenue by ~$1.4 million).Alto Ingredients Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 916.07M | 917.93M | 965.26M | 1.22B | 1.34B | 1.21B |
| Gross Profit | 37.05M | 26.84M | 9.72M | 15.65M | -27.55M | 67.78M |
| EBITDA | 47.51M | 32.35M | -26.76M | 2.60M | -12.75M | 74.43M |
| Net Income | 29.29M | 13.34M | -58.98M | -28.00M | -41.60M | 46.08M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 386.29M | 388.79M | 401.44M | 454.24M | 478.32M | 484.95M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 20.31M | 25.67M | 35.47M | 30.01M | 36.46M | 50.61M |
| Total Debt | 91.27M | 97.60M | 114.67M | 105.46M | 87.27M | 63.65M |
| Total Liabilities | 136.41M | 143.54M | 176.38M | 174.68M | 170.23M | 139.74M |
| Stockholders Equity | 249.88M | 245.24M | 225.06M | 279.56M | 308.09M | 345.21M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 30.71M | 8.65M | -14.59M | -7.51M | -31.70M | 10.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 35.69M | 13.24M | -3.52M | 22.02M | 6.05M | 26.82M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -526.00K | -7.43M | -13.47M | -33.03M | -37.66M | 27.12M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -40.69M | -16.36M | 7.72M | 6.96M | 19.01M | -40.00M |
Alto Ingredients Technical Analysis
Positive
4.94
Price Trends
5.00
Positive
4.08
Positive
2.89
Positive
Market Momentum
0.18
Negative
57.34
Neutral
67.70
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALTO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.01, below the 50-day MA of 5.00, and above the 200-day MA of 2.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALTO.
Alto Ingredients Risk Analysis
Alto Ingredients disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alto Ingredients reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alto Ingredients Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $2.00B | 17.66 | 8.68% | 2.19% | 0.25% | 325.27% | |
75 Outperform | $1.48B | 16.00 | 15.77% | ― | 2.95% | 73.25% | |
67 Neutral | $1.04B | -66.50 | -2.02% | ― | -20.16% | 83.66% | |
64 Neutral | $436.25M | 14.38 | 12.66% | ― | -3.69% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | $1.17B | -82.77 | -1.15% | 3.33% | 5.46% | -125.23% | |
52 Neutral | $384.59M | -11.07 | -7.28% | ― | 314.95% | 58.49% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
ALTO
Alto Ingredients
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.