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Paragon Banking Group PLC
(LSE:PAG)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
823.00 p
▲(3.26% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/06/26
The score is driven primarily by attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and supportive technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). This is tempered by mixed financial performance, particularly higher leverage and volatility in revenue and cash flow, which reduces confidence in the durability of recent results.
Positive Factors
Solid profitability
The latest period shows Paragon remains meaningfully profitable, with operating and net margins providing an earnings base for continued lending activity. Although margins have moderated from earlier levels, current profitability can support capital formation and ongoing investment in the franchise.
Negative Factors
Higher leverage
The sharp increase in debt-to-equity signals greater reliance on debt funding and reduces financial flexibility compared with the prior year. Higher leverage can make the balance sheet more sensitive to funding conditions and leaves less room to absorb weaker lending or credit outcomes.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Solid profitability
The latest period shows Paragon remains meaningfully profitable, with operating and net margins providing an earnings base for continued lending activity. Although margins have moderated from earlier levels, current profitability can support capital formation and ongoing investment in the franchise.
Read all positive factors
Paragon Banking Group PLC (PAG) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£1.29B
Dividend Yield6.31%
Average Volume (3M)334.91K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.8
Beta (1Y)1.39
Revenue Growth-6.82%
EPS Growth-7.03%
CountryUK
Employees1,413
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Mortgages
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.92
Shares Outstanding182,159,970
10 Day Avg. Volume483,215
30 Day Avg. Volume334,910
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio4.24
Price to Book (P/B)1.21
Price to Sales (P/S)1.38
P/FCF Ratio5.23
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£1,070.00Price Target Upside34.25% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)£517.63M
Paragon Banking Group PLC Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Paragon Banking Group PLC is a leading provider of diverse financial solutions across the United Kingdom. The company's operations are structured into three distinct divisions: Mortgage Lending, Commercial Lending, and Idem Capital. The Mortgage L...
How the Company Makes Money
Paragon Banking Group PLC makes money primarily by earning net interest income: it lends money (mainly through buy-to-let and other specialist mortgage products, and selected commercial lending) at interest rates that are higher than the rates it ...
Paragon Banking Group PLC Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
54
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.19B | 1.24B | 501.20M | 455.10M | 779.40M | 354.50M |
| Gross Profit | 429.00M | 452.40M | 501.20M | 455.10M | 604.90M | 361.30M |
| EBITDA | 269.50M | 262.00M | 260.40M | 207.50M | 423.40M | 220.00M |
| Net Income | 178.10M | 180.30M | 186.00M | 153.90M | 313.60M | 164.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 19.94B | 19.93B | 19.27B | 18.42B | 16.65B | 15.14B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.64B | 2.39B | 2.53B | 2.99B | 1.93B | 1.38B |
| Total Debt | 2.54B | 1.71B | 1.01B | 3.10B | 4.02B | 4.46B |
| Total Liabilities | 18.38B | 18.51B | 17.85B | 17.01B | 15.24B | 13.90B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.55B | 1.42B | 1.42B | 1.41B | 1.42B | 1.24B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 355.90M | 327.80M | 2.21B | 2.17B | 1.17B | 873.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 357.00M | 329.10M | 2.22B | 2.17B | 1.17B | 878.10M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.10B | -911.10M | -424.70M | -3.10M | -2.40M | -4.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.52B | 446.00M | -2.26B | -1.10B | -595.60M | -1.44B |
Paragon Banking Group PLC Technical Analysis
Negative
797.00
Price Trends
754.01
Negative
775.18
Negative
774.01
Negative
Market Momentum
-5.70
Negative
44.92
Neutral
69.53
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:PAG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 797 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 713.43, above the 50-day MA of 754.01, and above the 200-day MA of 774.01, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -5.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:PAG.
Paragon Banking Group PLC Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | £1.60B | 6.22 | 13.06% | 7.49% | -5.67% | 8.94% | |
75 Outperform | £132.73M | 7.01 | 6.84% | 6.71% | -6.35% | 16.23% | |
71 Outperform | £1.29B | 7.82 | 11.98% | 6.31% | -6.82% | -7.03% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
59 Neutral | £1.04B | 19.37 | 7.00% | ― | 0.76% | -49.33% | |
57 Neutral | £242.40M | 10.24 | 6.44% | 2.69% | -8.35% | 5.35% | |
51 Neutral | £109.32M | 10.05 | 2.20% | 12.35% | 6.21% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
GB:PAG
Paragon Banking Group PLC
719.00
-67.25
-8.55%
GB:ARBB
Arbuthnot Banking
820.00
-34.50
-4.04%
GB:MTRO
Metro Bank
154.60
37.60
32.14%
GB:OSB
OSB Group PLC
479.00
-24.03
-4.78%
GB:VANQ
Vanquis Banking Group
43.10
-70.90
-62.19%
GB:STB
Secure Trust Bank
1,340.00
391.27
41.24%
Paragon Banking Group PLC Corporate Events
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights
Neutral
Oct 1, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has updated investors on its share capital and voting rights position as of 30 September 2026. The group reports a total of 189,404,960 ordinary shares in issue, of which 7,244,990 are held in treasury and do not carry vo...
Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Fine-Tunes Share Buyback Data and Confirms Updated Treasury Position
Neutral
Sep 14, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has corrected previously reported figures for its share buyback activity on 7 September 2026, adjusting the volume weighted average prices and aggregate share numbers traded on Chi-X and Turquoise. The revisions are minor...
Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Completes £50m Share Buyback Programme
Positive
Sep 10, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has completed its previously announced share buyback programme of up to £50m, purchasing ordinary shares through Peel Hunt LLP between 8 and 10 September 2026. The final purchases ranged around 785p to 806p per share...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Paragon Banking Group Advances £50m Share Buyback, Tightens Free Float
Positive
Sep 8, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has continued execution of its previously announced £50 million share buyback programme, purchasing 515,384 ordinary £1.00 shares between 1 and 7 September 2026 through broker Peel Hunt LLP. The transactions wer...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Advances £50m Share Buyback, Updates Voting Rights
Positive
Sep 1, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has continued executing its previously announced share buyback programme of up to £50 million, repurchasing 145,085 ordinary £1.00 shares on the London Stock Exchange between 25 and 28 August 2026 through broker...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights Structure
Positive
Sep 1, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC reported that, as of 31 August 2026, its issued share capital comprises 189,404,960 ordinary shares, of which 6,478,062 are held in Treasury, leaving 182,926,898 shares carrying voting rights. The company clarified that t...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Advances £50m Share Buyback, Updates Voting Rights
Positive
Aug 25, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has continued its previously announced share buyback programme of up to £50 million, repurchasing a total of 607,817 ordinary £1.00 shares between 18 and 24 August 2026 through Peel Hunt LLP. The purchases were ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Paragon Banking Group Advances £50m Share Buyback, Updates Voting Rights
Positive
Aug 18, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has continued its £50 million share buyback programme, repurchasing 715,744 ordinary £1.00 shares between 11 and 17 August 2026 through Peel Hunt LLP across several trading venues. The purchases were made at vol...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Advances £50m Buyback, Updates Voting Share Count
Positive
Aug 11, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has continued to execute its previously announced £50 million share buyback, purchasing 842,175 ordinary £1.00 shares between 4 and 10 August 2026 through broker Peel Hunt LLP. The shares were acquired at volume...
Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Advances £50m Buyback, Updates Voting Rights
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has continued its £50 million share buyback programme, repurchasing 726,607 ordinary shares between 28 July and 3 August 2026 through broker Peel Hunt. The purchases were executed across multiple trading venues at vo...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Clarifies Share Capital and Voting Rights
Neutral
Jul 31, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has reported that, as of 31 July 2026, its issued share capital comprises 189,404,960 ordinary shares, of which 4,057,046 are held in treasury and do not carry voting rights. This leaves a total of 185,347,914 voting righ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Paragon Banking Group Grants CEO Share Options Under All-Employee Plan
Neutral
Jul 31, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has granted a new tranche of share options under its tax-advantaged Paragon Sharesave Plan 2019, an all-employee savings-based share scheme. The plan enables eligible staff to save over a fixed term and subsequently purch...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.