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Pan African Resources
(LSE:PAF)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
126.00 p
▼(-8.76% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/17/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (profitability, improving leverage, and a major FY2026 cash-flow uplift) and a highly attractive valuation (very low P/E). Offsetting these positives, technical indicators are mixed with weak near-term momentum, and the earnings call highlights execution and cost risks (Tennant ramp-up, near-term feed constraints, inflation, and approvals timing).
Positive Factors
Strong production and earnings growth
The sharp increase in production, revenue and EBITDA demonstrates meaningful operating scale and strong asset performance. FY2027 guidance of 280,000 to just over 300,000 ounces provides a sizeable production base that can support continued earnings generation over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Execution risk at Tennant and MTR
Operational ramp-up and feed-quality issues can temporarily reduce ounces and weaken cost absorption at important growth assets. Although management describes the constraints as manageable, delays in reaching planned production levels could defer expected cash generation and require continued execution effort over the coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong production and earnings growth
The sharp increase in production, revenue and EBITDA demonstrates meaningful operating scale and strong asset performance. FY2027 guidance of 280,000 to just over 300,000 ounces provides a sizeable production base that can support continued earnings generation over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Pan African Resources (PAF) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£2.73B
Dividend Yield1.95%
Average Volume (3M)6.90M
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.7
Beta (1Y)1.52
Revenue Growth106.49%
EPS Growth139.42%
CountryUK
Employees2,710
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.26
Shares Outstanding2,436,313,000
10 Day Avg. Volume5,302,711
30 Day Avg. Volume6,902,378
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.08
Price to Book (P/B)2.46
Price to Sales (P/S)2.22
P/FCF Ratio6.02
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£147.67Price Target Upside6.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.22
Revenue Forecast (FY)£1.28B
Pan African Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Pan African Resources PLC is a company dedicated to the entire gold value chain, performing mining, extraction, production, and sale activities primarily within South Africa. Its key undertakings include the Barberton gold project, which encompass...
How the Company Makes Money
Pan African Resources primarily makes money by producing and selling gold. Revenue is generated when the company mines gold-bearing ore and/or reprocesses historical tailings material, processes this feed through its metallurgical plants to produc...
Pan African Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 16, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 17, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive, characterized by record production and financial results, substantial cash generation, debt repayment, a degeared balance sheet, sharply higher dividends and an extensive organic growth pipeline. The main challenges were the slower-than-expected Tennant ramp-up, near-term lower-grade feed at MTR, lower production at Sheba and Consort, inflationary pressures and pending approvals for Soweto. Management presented these issues as manageable within a broader expansion and shareholder-return strategy.Positive Updates
Record Production and Strong Production Outlook
Gold production increased by almost 40% to marginally shy of 275,000 ounces in FY2026. Annualizing second-half performance indicates almost 290,000 ounces, and FY2027 production guidance is 280,000 ounces to just over 300,000 ounces, with production skewed to the second half.
Negative Updates
Tennant Ramp-Up Slower Than Expected
Tennant Mines produced just over 32,000 ounces in FY2026, while the ramp-up was slower than initially anticipated because of lower-grade historical stockpile material, the time required to establish higher-grade mining sources and commissioning constraints on the dry-stack tailings circuit.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Production and Strong Production Outlook
Gold production increased by almost 40% to marginally shy of 275,000 ounces in FY2026. Annualizing second-half performance indicates almost 290,000 ounces, and FY2027 production guidance is 280,000 ounces to just over 300,000 ounces, with production skewed to the second half.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For FY '27, production guidance is 280,000 ounces to just over 300,000 ounces for the year, with production skewed to the second half; FY '27 group capital is approximately $330 million. MTR should deliver 55,000 to 60,000 ounces of gold production annually, Tennant’s near-term objective is to establish a reliable 50,000 ounce per year production platform, and the all-in sustaining cost budget for the next year in Australia is $2,000 an ounce, based on a sort of 10% sort of higher than spot diesel price assumption. Royal Sheba targets approximately 200,000 ounces of gold or around 40,000 ounces per year at steady state, with a new financial year project budget of approximately $15 million, while Soweto envisages approximately 560,000 ounces over 15 years, producing 35,000 to 40,000 ounces per annum at a $3,550 per ounce gold price, with $216 million upfront capital and approximately 30% IRR.Pan African Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.16B | 540.03M | 373.80M | 319.89M | 376.37M |
| Gross Profit | 640.03M | 225.85M | 129.68M | 100.61M | 123.50M |
| EBITDA | 691.73M | 251.91M | 143.01M | 112.28M | 110.42M |
| Net Income | 358.11M | 141.60M | 79.38M | 61.14M | 75.14M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.62B | 1.00B | 686.07M | 500.94M | 457.09M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 247.46M | 49.53M | 26.33M | 34.77M | 27.68M |
| Total Debt | 59.65M | 193.63M | 130.73M | 56.84M | 38.96M |
| Total Liabilities | 575.05M | 457.84M | 321.97M | 206.34M | 162.48M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.04B | 548.83M | 365.22M | 292.48M | 294.78M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 426.87M | -3.76M | -75.44M | -12.70M | 27.32M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 617.07M | 154.86M | 90.80M | 100.12M | 110.01M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -353.02M | -149.85M | -169.38M | -112.73M | -81.39M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -214.95M | 17.46M | 68.98M | 24.87M | -32.36M |
Pan African Resources Technical Analysis
Negative
138.10
Price Trends
123.28
Negative
112.04
Negative
128.26
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.69
Positive
40.36
Neutral
24.21
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:PAF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 138.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 116.12, above the 50-day MA of 123.28, and above the 200-day MA of 128.26, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:PAF.
Pan African Resources Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | £137.35M | 2.75 | 35.76% | 0.03% | 63.34% | 67.29% | |
77 Outperform | £2.73B | 5.70 | 61.74% | 3.14% | 106.49% | 139.42% | |
73 Outperform | £3.55B | 8.29 | 43.78% | ― | ― | ― | |
69 Neutral | £239.44M | 4.13 | 43.53% | ― | 67.48% | 66.08% | |
66 Neutral | £2.30B | 10.28 | 35.59% | 1.48% | 37.18% | 95.38% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
52 Neutral | £435.56M | 9.92 | 53.59% | 1.97% | 220.16% | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GB:PAF
Pan African Resources
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31.41
38.98%
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Pan African Resources Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Pan African Resources Reports September CDI Shift Across Exchanges
Neutral
Oct 7, 2026
Pan African Resources reported a decline in its ASX-listed CHESS Depositary Interests over ordinary shares in September 2026, with the CDI balance falling from 61,780,474 to 51,905,576. This net decrease of 9,874,898 CDIs reflects transfers betwee...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Pan African Resources Delivers Record Earnings and Cash as Growth Projects Advance
Positive
Sep 16, 2026
Pan African Resources reported a record operational and financial performance for the year to 30 June 2026, with group gold output rising 38.6% to 272,310oz and revenue more than doubling to US$1.16bn on higher volumes and a sharply stronger gold ...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Pan African Resources’ Soweto Tailings Project DFS Paves Way for Major Growth at Mogale Complex
Positive
Sep 11, 2026
Pan African Resources has completed the definitive feasibility study for its Soweto Tailings Retreatment project, adjacent to the Mogale Tailings Retreatment complex in Gauteng. The project will process 600,000 tonnes of tailings per month from th...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Pan African Resources Forecasts Profit Surge on Higher Gold Prices and Output
Positive
Sep 10, 2026
Pan African Resources expects a sharp improvement in profitability for the year to 30 June 2026, with earnings per share forecast to rise between 141% and 151% and headline earnings per share up around 195% to 205% versus 2025. The surge is driven...
Business Operations and Strategy
Pan African Resources Reports August CDI Decline on ASX
Neutral
Sep 4, 2026
Pan African Resources has reported a decline in the number of CHESS Depositary Interests over its ordinary shares quoted on the ASX for August 2026. The CDI balance fell from 71,610,794 at the end of July to 61,780,474 at the end of August, repres...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing Changes
Pan African Resources Reports Sharp July Drop in ASX CDI Count
Neutral
Aug 7, 2026
Pan African Resources reported a significant decline in the number of ASX-listed CHESS Depositary Interests over its ordinary shares in July 2026, with the balance falling from 102,641,421 at the end of June to 71,610,794 by 31 July. The company s...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.