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Grainger (GRI) AI Stock Analysis
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Grainger
(LSE:GRI)
Overall score reflects (1) solid but mixed financial performance—stable leverage and strong profitability metrics offset by declining revenue and weaker operating cash flow conversion; (2) supportive earnings-call outlook with clear growth and margin guidance but acknowledged rate/valuation and regulatory risks; (3) attractive valuation (low P/E and solid yield) providing downside support; and (4) broadly neutral technical signals with modestly positive trend indicators.
Grainger (GRI) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
- Market Cap
- GBP 1.34B
- Dividend Yield
- 3.20%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 2.69M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 10.1
- Beta (1Y)
- 1.00
- Revenue Growth
- -23.35%
- EPS Growth
- 20.53%
- Country
- UK
- Employees
- 372
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Sector Strength
- 65
- Industry
- Real Estate - Services
Grainger Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Grainger plc is a company based in the United Kingdom that focuses on the residential property sector. It is involved in all stages of the property lifecycle, from designing and owning residential buildings to their operation, management, and rental...
How the Company Makes Money
Grainger makes money primarily by purchasing industrial and MRO products from a large network of manufacturers and suppliers and reselling them to end customers at a markup, capturing gross profit on product sales. Revenue is driven by high-frequency...
Grainger Earnings Call Summary
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial picture: robust rental growth, high occupancy, disciplined capital recycling, clear earnings and dividend guidance, margin expansion driven by technology and scale, and proactive refinancing/deleveraging plans. The company acknowledged manageable headwinds — a modest NTA decline tied to a 100bp yield widening, timing disruption to disposals, ongoing cost pressures, interest‑rate sensitivity during the rebasing period, and a persistent share‑price discount to NTA — but articulated clear mitigation actions and targets. On balance the highlights substantially outweigh the lowlights.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Grainger reiterated that it is on track for c.£60m EPRA earnings this year (a 12% increase from £54m) and c.£72m by FY29 (c.35% growth), assuming long‑run like‑for‑like rental growth of 3–3.5% (H1 like‑for‑like +3.1%) and with total rents up ~7.8% in H1; occupancy remains high at c.95–97% (around 96%), annual customer renewals ~61%, operational costs ~25% of gross rents and central overheads broadly flat at c.£36m (with a further £2m saving), while each new home adds an incremental margin of ~75% driving EBITDA margin expansion from 54% (FY24) to 56% (FY25) and guided to 60%+ by FY29. The group is recycling c.£850m of non‑core assets (YTD disposals £82m, on track for c.£175–200m), targeting deleveraging of £300–350m to net debt ~£1.1bn (LTV ~30%, net debt/EBITDA ~8x), models a rebased cost of debt around 5.5% (noting current fixes locked in mid‑3s for ~2 years), and has refinanced c.£540m of facilities to 2033, trimming banking margins by ~£1m p.a.
Grainger Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Mixed fundamentals: strong reported margins and a stable balance sheet with moderate leverage (debt-to-equity 0.78, equity ratio 54.06%), but a notable revenue decline (-16.67%) and weaker cash generation signals (free cash flow growth -26.31%, operating cash flow to net income 0.61) temper the outlook.
Income Statement
65PositiveBalance Sheet
70PositiveCash Flow
60Neutral| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 239.30M | 258.90M | 284.60M | 271.70M | 285.20M | 256.10M |
| Gross Profit | 154.90M | 164.80M | 162.10M | 160.90M | 161.10M | 151.50M |
| EBITDA | 69.70M | 145.50M | 80.40M | 126.30M | 121.40M | 113.50M |
| Net Income | 131.40M | 202.60M | 31.20M | 25.60M | 229.40M | 109.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.76B | 3.77B | 3.74B | 3.72B | 3.58B | 3.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 150.90M | 85.80M | 93.20M | 121.00M | 110.20M | 317.60M |
| Total Debt | 1.66B | 1.60B | 1.60B | 1.54B | 1.36B | 1.35B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.78B | 1.73B | 1.85B | 1.79B | 1.61B | 1.53B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.99B | 2.04B | 1.89B | 1.93B | 1.97B | 1.74B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 90.40M | 121.00M | 132.30M | 178.60M | 98.30M | 147.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 91.70M | 122.40M | 136.60M | 184.70M | 102.00M | 148.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -108.20M | -59.10M | -167.70M | -274.10M | -274.20M | -315.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 7.50M | -70.70M | 3.30M | 114.50M | -49.50M | 116.40M |
Grainger Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GRI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 181.00 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 173.24, above the 50-day MA of 170.30, and above the 200-day MA of 170.74, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.79 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:GRI.
Grainger Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
GB:TPFG77Outperform- GB:GRI71Outperform
GB:FOXT68Neutral
GB:LSL68Neutral
GB:SVS67Neutral
GB:PSDL49Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB:TPFG | 77Outperform | GBP 269.35M | 15.09 | 11.70% | 5.37% | 8.05% | 14.09% |
| GB:GRI | 71Outperform | GBP 1.34B | 10.13 | 6.53% | 3.20% | -23.35% | 20.53% |
| GB:FOXT | 68Neutral | GBP 108.70M | 12.98 | 5.76% | 3.18% | -0.77% | -44.83% |
| GB:LSL | 68Neutral | GBP 249.67M | 14.98 | 21.39% | 4.42% | 5.64% | 13.14% |
| GB:SVS | 67Neutral | GBP 1.82B | 24.26 | 8.94% | 3.13% | 7.29% | 20.68% |
| Sector * | 65Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% |
| GB:PSDL | 49Neutral | GBP 108.79M | -45.94 | -1.18% | ― | ― | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB:GRI | Grainger plc | 181.00 | 2.72 | 1.52% | |
| GB:FOXT | Foxtons Group plc | 36.75 | -15.86 | -30.15% | |
| GB:LSL | LSL Property Services | 258.00 | 20.32 | 8.55% | |
| GB:TPFG | The Property Franchise | 422.50 | -69.14 | -14.06% | |
| GB:PSDL | Phoenix Spree Deutschland Ltd | 128.00 | -28.61 | -18.27% | |
| GB:SVS | Savills (OTC) | 1094.00 | 134.87 | 14.06% |
Grainger Corporate Events
Grainger Directors Receive Shares Under All-Employee Incentive Plan
NeutralGrainger has disclosed routine transactions by directors and senior managers under its HMRC-approved Share Incentive Plan, in which employees buy partnership shares and receive matching shares at no cost. On 7 August 2026, the plan’s trustees a...
Grainger CEO Helen Gordon Increases Stake via Dividend Reinvestment
PositiveGrainger plc has disclosed a director dealing involving chief executive officer and director Helen Gordon, who purchased 287 ordinary shares via the company’s Dividend Reinvestment Plan on 3 July 2026. The transaction, executed on the London St...
Grainger Directors Receive Shares Under All-Employee Incentive Plan
NeutralGrainger plc has disclosed routine share dealings by its directors and senior managers under its HMRC-approved Share Incentive Plan, in which employees buy partnership shares via monthly salary deductions and receive matching shares at no cost. The p...
Grainger Expands Employee Share Ownership With New SAYE Option Grants
PositiveGrainger plc has granted options over 753,873 ordinary shares at £1.32 per share under its HMRC-approved Save As You Earn scheme, following new invitations to employees. Participants have taken up either three-year contracts, covering 473,845 op...
Grainger Executives Receive Shares Under All-Employee Incentive Plan
PositiveGrainger plc has disclosed routine share transactions involving its senior management under its HMRC-approved Share Incentive Plan, an all-employee trust structure through which staff buy partnership shares and are awarded matching shares. On 8 June...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Aug 26, 2026