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Dunelm Group
(LSE:DNLM)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
986.00 p
▲(12.81% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:10/16/26
The score is driven primarily by strong cash generation and steady operating performance, reinforced by supportive technical trend signals. Valuation is also attractive given the moderate P/E and very high dividend yield. The main constraints are balance-sheet leverage noted in the financial statements and earnings-call risks around flat profit, cost inflation, and execution (delivery and digital).
Positive Factors
Revenue and Market Share Growth
Dunelm is expanding sales while also taking share in a large, established UK homewares market. This indicates continued customer adoption and competitive relevance, providing a durable base for future growth even as broader consumer demand remains uneven.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Although recent net debt metrics improved, the broader balance sheet still shows elevated debt relative to equity and reduced financial flexibility versus earlier years. This could constrain investment choices and increase sensitivity if trading conditions or cash generation weaken.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and Market Share Growth
Dunelm is expanding sales while also taking share in a large, established UK homewares market. This indicates continued customer adoption and competitive relevance, providing a durable base for future growth even as broader consumer demand remains uneven.
Read all positive factors
Dunelm Group (DNLM) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£1.74B
Dividend Yield8.18%
Average Volume (3M)599.87K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.2
Beta (1Y)1.33
Revenue Growth3.08%
EPS Growth-0.16%
CountryUK
Employees11,567
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.77
Shares Outstanding201,621,230
10 Day Avg. Volume653,891
30 Day Avg. Volume599,872
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.00
Price to Book (P/B)10.69
Price to Sales (P/S)0.87
P/FCF Ratio6.97
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£1,011.00Price Target Upside15.68% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)£1.89B
Dunelm Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Dunelm Group plc is a leading retailer specializing in home furnishings and decorative items across the United Kingdom. The company provides a comprehensive range of products for every room, including furniture for bedrooms, living areas, dining s...
How the Company Makes Money
Dunelm makes money primarily by retailing homewares and furniture to consumers in the UK through a combination of physical stores and online sales. Its core revenue stream is the sale of own-brand and third‑party products across categories such as...
Dunelm Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 08, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 10, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive outlook. Dunelm delivered sales growth, market-share gains, gross-margin expansion, stronger cash generation, lower net debt, higher dividends, improved customer satisfaction, digital growth, and continued investment in stores and technology despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. These positives outweighed flat profit, cost and inflationary pressures, weaker third-party courier performance, an opening pace below ambition, execution gaps in some digital channels, and a mixed start to Q1.Positive Updates
Sales Growth and Market Share Gains
Total sales increased 3.1% to GBP 1,825 million, and Dunelm gained 10 basis points of market share year on year to 7.9% within the GBP 25 billion U.K. homewares and furniture market.
Negative Updates
Flat Profit and Earnings
Profit before tax was GBP 211 million, flat year on year, while diluted earnings per share was 76.8 pence, also flat. Profit after tax was GBP 155 million, about GBP 1 million lower than the prior year.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Sales Growth and Market Share Gains
Total sales increased 3.1% to GBP 1,825 million, and Dunelm gained 10 basis points of market share year on year to 7.9% within the GBP 25 billion U.K. homewares and furniture market.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Forward-looking guidance included that Made to Measure “will support MTM's double-digit growth moving forward,” business rates “will provide an annualized tailwind into next year,” the net debt to EBITDA ratio target remains within “0.2 to 0.6 times,” and operational and technology-led changes are planned to support improvement in home delivery; Dunelm also said it has bigger ambitions for store openings, social channels can continue to grow, and planned scarcity will continue to be a key factor.Dunelm Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.83B | 1.77B | 1.71B | 1.64B | 1.58B |
| Gross Profit | 959.00M | 928.30M | 883.30M | 741.80M | 730.30M |
| EBITDA | 312.60M | 304.20M | 295.90M | 278.20M | 297.10M |
| Net Income | 155.50M | 156.30M | 151.20M | 151.90M | 171.20M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 756.80M | 741.50M | 682.00M | 696.80M | 737.90M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 22.40M | 30.00M | 23.40M | 46.30M | 30.20M |
| Total Debt | 383.90M | 377.70M | 326.60M | 334.10M | 330.90M |
| Total Liabilities | 608.30M | 622.70M | 544.10M | 559.30M | 559.60M |
| Stockholders Equity | 148.50M | 118.80M | 137.90M | 137.50M | 178.30M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 227.70M | 220.70M | 199.90M | 217.70M | 225.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 270.40M | 255.90M | 232.30M | 239.50M | 249.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -41.70M | -65.90M | -38.30M | -21.80M | -41.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -236.30M | -183.00M | -217.30M | -202.20M | -307.50M |
Dunelm Group Technical Analysis
Positive
874.00
Price Trends
799.40
Positive
805.91
Positive
807.24
Positive
Market Momentum
24.96
Negative
66.00
Neutral
46.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:DNLM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 874 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 818.10, above the 50-day MA of 799.40, and above the 200-day MA of 807.24, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 24.96 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:DNLM.
Dunelm Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | £1.74B | 11.19 | 99.65% | 8.18% | 3.08% | -0.16% | |
70 Outperform | £3.80B | 10.36 | 15.67% | 4.55% | 8.13% | 28.46% | |
67 Neutral | £511.64M | 14.53 | 21.65% | 0.02% | 11.35% | 247.54% | |
66 Neutral | £1.49B | 9.44 | 7.10% | 2.05% | 6.29% | 55.06% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
57 Neutral | £51.86M | 33.06 | 16.45% | 2.22% | 23.02% | 57.61% | |
46 Neutral | £51.43M | -122.50 | -4.18% | 1.57% | -7.46% | 71.01% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
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Dunelm Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Dunelm Posts Modest Q1 Sales Growth as Strategy and Digital Push Offset Warm-Weather Slowdown
Positive
Oct 15, 2026
Dunelm reported first-quarter FY27 sales of £433m, up 1.1% year on year, with trading improving in the latter half of the period after an initially weak performance attributed to exceptionally warm weather. Despite store-enabled like-for-like...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Dunelm Publishes 2026 Annual and Sustainability Reports Ahead of AGM
Neutral
Oct 9, 2026
Dunelm Group plc is a U.K.-based homewares retailer, offering a broad range of household furnishings and décor to consumers through its stores and online channels. The company focuses on affordable home products and has been building its corp...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Updates Market on Total Voting Rights and Share Capital
Neutral
Oct 1, 2026
Dunelm Group plc has updated the market on its total voting rights, confirming that as of 30 September 2026 it had 203,426,835 issued ordinary shares of 1p each, of which 1,805,605 shares are held in treasury, leaving 201,621,230 ordinary shares c...
Executive/Board Changes
Dunelm Director Dan Taylor Named CEO of Flutter Entertainment
Neutral
Oct 1, 2026
Dunelm Group plc has disclosed that non-executive director Dan Taylor has been appointed Group Chief Executive Officer of Flutter Entertainment plc, effective 1 October 2026. Taylor will also join Flutter’s board, a move that may broaden his...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm CEO Moriarty Exercises Equity Options and Sells Shares for Tax
Neutral
Sep 29, 2026
Dunelm Group plc has disclosed that chief executive officer Clodagh (Clo) Moriarty exercised 101,431 nil-cost options over ordinary shares granted under the company’s 2014 Long Term Incentive Plan. The award was part of buy-out arrangements ...
Other
Dunelm Director Katharine Poulter Buys Shares, Signals Confidence
Positive
Sep 25, 2026
Dunelm Group plc disclosed that non-executive director Katharine Poulter has purchased 2,500 ordinary shares in the company at an aggregated price of £7.834 per share. The transaction, executed over-the-counter on 24 September 2026 at varying...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm CEO Clodagh Moriarty Increases Stake with Share Purchase
Positive
Sep 23, 2026
Dunelm Group plc disclosed that its chief executive officer, Clodagh Moriarty, purchased 7,781 ordinary shares in the company at a price of £7.9267 per share on 22 September 2026. Following this transaction, Moriarty’s total beneficial ...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Director Ajay Kavan Increases Shareholding with London Stock Exchange Purchase
Positive
Sep 16, 2026
Dunelm Group plc disclosed that non-executive director Ajay Kavan purchased 3,302 ordinary shares on 14 September 2026 at £7.53 each on the London Stock Exchange. Following this transaction, Kavan’s beneficial holding in the companyR...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Non-Executive Director Ian Bull Increases Personal Stake with Share Purchase
Positive
Sep 10, 2026
Dunelm Group plc disclosed that non-executive director Ian Bull has purchased 2,500 ordinary shares in the company at a price of £7.4792 per share. Following this transaction on 9 September 2026, Bull’s total beneficial holding in Dunel...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Chair Alison Brittain Increases Stake with Share Purchase
Positive
Sep 10, 2026
Dunelm Group plc, a leading U.K. homewares retailer, offers furniture, soft furnishings, and household accessories to mainstream consumers via both physical stores and its digital channels. Listed on the London Stock Exchange, the group occupies a...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Dunelm posts solid year and unveils new growth strategy
Positive
Sep 8, 2026
Dunelm reported a solid performance for the 52 weeks to 27 June 2026, with sales rising 3.1% to £1.83bn, market share edging up to 7.9% and gross margin improving to 52.5%, while profit before tax held flat at £211m amid inflationary and...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Dunelm launches self‑funded three‑year plan to accelerate growth and reinforce market leadership
Positive
Sep 8, 2026
Dunelm Group has unveiled a three‑year, self‑funded strategic growth plan, Winning Hearts Homes, aimed at accelerating its expansion while preserving disciplined returns and cash generation. The UK homewares specialist is targeting a ...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Updates Market on Total Voting Rights and Share Capital
Neutral
Sep 1, 2026
Dunelm Group plc has confirmed that as of 31 August 2026 its issued ordinary share capital consists of 203,426,835 shares, of which 1,815,321 are held in treasury, leaving 201,611,514 shares with voting rights in circulation. The company highlight...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Clarifies Total Voting Rights and Share Capital Structure
Neutral
Sep 1, 2026
Dunelm Group has updated the market on its share capital and voting rights, stating that as of 31 August 2026 it had 203,426,835 issued ordinary shares of 1p each, with 1,815,321 held in treasury and 201,611,514 carrying voting rights. This disclo...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Updates Market on Total Voting Rights and Share Capital
Neutral
Aug 3, 2026
Dunelm Group has reported that, as of 31 July 2026, its issued ordinary share capital consists of 203,426,835 shares of 1p each, with 1,826,220 of these held in treasury and therefore excluded from voting. This leaves 201,600,615 ordinary shares w...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Dunelm Delivers Steady Growth as Digital and New Stores Drive Strategy
Positive
Jul 16, 2026
Dunelm Group reported another year of steady growth in a challenging consumer environment, with full-year sales rising 3.1% to £1.83bn and digital channels increasing to 42% of revenue as the retailer continued to build out its app and online...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.