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Dunelm Group
(LSE:DNLM)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
836.00 p
▼(-4.35% Downside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:09/09/26
The score is driven primarily by strong cash generation and solid operating performance, supported by attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and a generally positive earnings-call outlook. These positives are moderated by balance-sheet leverage concerns and weak technical positioning with the price trading below major moving averages.
Positive Factors
Steady growth and market-share gains
Dunelm is growing sales while taking share in a large UK homewares market, indicating continued customer relevance and competitive execution. This combination supports durable revenue expansion over coming quarters and provides a stronger base for leveraging stores, digital channels, and owned-brand development.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and limited flexibility
The higher-debt capital structure leaves Dunelm with less financial flexibility than in earlier years if trading weakens or investment needs increase. Although recent net debt metrics are better, elevated leverage can constrain capital allocation and increase sensitivity to financing costs over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Steady growth and market-share gains
Dunelm is growing sales while taking share in a large UK homewares market, indicating continued customer relevance and competitive execution. This combination supports durable revenue expansion over coming quarters and provides a stronger base for leveraging stores, digital channels, and owned-brand development.
Read all positive factors
Dunelm Group (DNLM) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£1.79B
Dividend Yield9.98%
Average Volume (3M)397.07K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.3
Beta (1Y)1.12
Revenue Growth3.08%
EPS Growth-0.17%
CountryUK
Employees12,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.74
Shares Outstanding201,611,510
10 Day Avg. Volume320,318
30 Day Avg. Volume397,069
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.22
Price to Book (P/B)13.93
Price to Sales (P/S)2.46
P/FCF Ratio10.96
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£1,044.38Price Target Upside19.49% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.78
Revenue Forecast (FY)£1.89B
Dunelm Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Dunelm Group plc is a leading retailer specializing in home furnishings and decorative items across the United Kingdom. The company provides a comprehensive range of products for every room, including furniture for bedrooms, living areas, dining s...
How the Company Makes Money
Dunelm makes money primarily by retailing homewares and furnishings to consumers, generating revenue from the sale of goods across its physical stores and its online/digital channels. Its core revenue stream is merchandise sales spanning categorie...
Dunelm Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 08, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 10, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive outlook. Dunelm delivered sales growth, market-share gains, gross-margin expansion, stronger cash generation, lower net debt, higher dividends, improved customer satisfaction, digital growth, and continued investment in stores and technology despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. These positives outweighed flat profit, cost and inflationary pressures, weaker third-party courier performance, an opening pace below ambition, execution gaps in some digital channels, and a mixed start to Q1.Positive Updates
Sales Growth and Market Share Gains
Total sales increased 3.1% to GBP 1,825 million, and Dunelm gained 10 basis points of market share year on year to 7.9% within the GBP 25 billion U.K. homewares and furniture market.
Negative Updates
Flat Profit and Earnings
Profit before tax was GBP 211 million, flat year on year, while diluted earnings per share was 76.8 pence, also flat. Profit after tax was GBP 155 million, about GBP 1 million lower than the prior year.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Sales Growth and Market Share Gains
Total sales increased 3.1% to GBP 1,825 million, and Dunelm gained 10 basis points of market share year on year to 7.9% within the GBP 25 billion U.K. homewares and furniture market.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Forward-looking guidance included that Made to Measure “will support MTM's double-digit growth moving forward,” business rates “will provide an annualized tailwind into next year,” the net debt to EBITDA ratio target remains within “0.2 to 0.6 times,” and operational and technology-led changes are planned to support improvement in home delivery; Dunelm also said it has bigger ambitions for store openings, social channels can continue to grow, and planned scarcity will continue to be a key factor.Dunelm Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.80B | 1.83B | 1.77B | 1.71B | 1.64B | 1.58B |
| Gross Profit | 911.10M | 959.00M | 928.30M | 883.30M | 741.80M | 730.30M |
| EBITDA | 265.00M | 312.60M | 251.20M | 295.90M | 278.20M | 297.10M |
| Net Income | 149.50M | 155.50M | 156.30M | 151.20M | 151.90M | 171.20M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 779.20M | 756.80M | 741.50M | 682.00M | 696.80M | 737.90M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 46.30M | 22.40M | 30.00M | 23.40M | 46.30M | 30.20M |
| Total Debt | 287.60M | 383.90M | 377.70M | 326.60M | 334.10M | 330.90M |
| Total Liabilities | 615.60M | 608.30M | 622.70M | 544.10M | 559.30M | 559.60M |
| Stockholders Equity | 163.60M | 148.50M | 118.80M | 137.90M | 137.50M | 178.30M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 202.80M | 227.70M | 220.70M | 199.90M | 217.70M | 225.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 241.90M | 270.40M | 255.90M | 232.30M | 239.50M | 249.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -51.50M | -41.70M | -65.90M | -38.30M | -21.80M | -41.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -199.50M | -236.30M | -183.00M | -217.30M | -202.20M | -307.50M |
Dunelm Group Technical Analysis
Positive
874.00
Price Trends
857.42
Positive
816.57
Positive
881.97
Positive
Market Momentum
2.08
Positive
55.13
Neutral
63.07
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:DNLM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 874 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 877.23, above the 50-day MA of 857.42, and below the 200-day MA of 881.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:DNLM.
Dunelm Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | £1.58B | 9.72 | 7.10% | 1.99% | 6.29% | 55.06% | |
70 Outperform | £1.79B | 10.27 | 105.88% | 9.28% | 3.08% | -0.17% | |
67 Neutral | £3.43B | 9.17 | 15.67% | 4.55% | 8.13% | 28.46% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | £515.12M | 14.29 | 21.65% | 0.02% | 11.35% | 247.54% | |
61 Neutral | £53.17M | 32.64 | 16.45% | 2.22% | 23.02% | 57.61% | |
45 Neutral | £47.75M | -113.75 | -4.18% | 1.57% | -7.46% | 71.01% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GB:DNLM
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Dunelm Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Dunelm posts solid year and unveils new growth strategy
Positive
Sep 8, 2026
Dunelm reported a solid performance for the 52 weeks to 27 June 2026, with sales rising 3.1% to £1.83bn, market share edging up to 7.9% and gross margin improving to 52.5%, while profit before tax held flat at £211m amid inflationary and...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Dunelm launches self‑funded three‑year plan to accelerate growth and reinforce market leadership
Positive
Sep 8, 2026
Dunelm Group has unveiled a three‑year, self‑funded strategic growth plan, Winning Hearts Homes, aimed at accelerating its expansion while preserving disciplined returns and cash generation. The UK homewares specialist is targeting a ...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Updates Market on Total Voting Rights and Share Capital
Neutral
Sep 1, 2026
Dunelm Group plc has confirmed that as of 31 August 2026 its issued ordinary share capital consists of 203,426,835 shares, of which 1,815,321 are held in treasury, leaving 201,611,514 shares with voting rights in circulation. The company highlight...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Clarifies Total Voting Rights and Share Capital Structure
Neutral
Sep 1, 2026
Dunelm Group has updated the market on its share capital and voting rights, stating that as of 31 August 2026 it had 203,426,835 issued ordinary shares of 1p each, with 1,815,321 held in treasury and 201,611,514 carrying voting rights. This disclo...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Updates Market on Total Voting Rights and Share Capital
Neutral
Aug 3, 2026
Dunelm Group has reported that, as of 31 July 2026, its issued ordinary share capital consists of 203,426,835 shares of 1p each, with 1,826,220 of these held in treasury and therefore excluded from voting. This leaves 201,600,615 ordinary shares w...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Dunelm Delivers Steady Growth as Digital and New Stores Drive Strategy
Positive
Jul 16, 2026
Dunelm Group reported another year of steady growth in a challenging consumer environment, with full-year sales rising 3.1% to £1.83bn and digital channels increasing to 42% of revenue as the retailer continued to build out its app and online...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Confirms Updated Total Voting Rights and Share Capital Structure
Neutral
Jul 1, 2026
Dunelm Group plc has confirmed that as of 30 June 2026 its issued ordinary share capital stands at 203,426,835 shares with a nominal value of 1p each, of which 1,843,368 are held in treasury, leaving 201,583,467 shares carrying voting rights. The ...
Executive/Board Changes
Dunelm Grants CEO Clodagh Moriarty Buy-Out Share Award
Positive
Jun 11, 2026
Dunelm Group has granted Chief Executive Officer Clodagh (Clo) Moriarty a buy-out award under its 2014 Long Term Incentive Plan, structured as nil-cost options over 33,966 ordinary shares. The award compensates her for a forfeited 2026 bonus share...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.