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Dunelm Group Plc (UK) (GB:DNLM)
:DNLM
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Dunelm Group (DNLM) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:DNLM

Dunelm Group

(LSE:DNLM)

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Outperform 73 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
1,272.00p
▲(16.91% Upside)
Dunelm Group's robust financial performance and positive corporate events are significant strengths. High leverage and moderate technical indicators slightly offset these positives. The valuation is fair, but the technical analysis suggests limited momentum.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term financial stability.
Digital Sales Expansion
A strong digital sales presence enhances market reach and customer engagement, crucial for sustaining growth in a digital-first retail environment.
Leadership Change
New leadership with expertise in retail and digital strategies can drive innovation and strategic growth, strengthening market position.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Significant leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk during economic downturns, impacting long-term financial health.
Free Cash Flow Pressure
Negative free cash flow growth suggests potential challenges in funding operations and investments, affecting future expansion capabilities.
Net Profit Margin Decline
A declining net profit margin indicates pressure on profitability, which could affect the company's ability to reinvest and grow.

Dunelm Group (DNLM) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Dunelm Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDunelm Group (DNLM) is a leading British home furnishings retailer, specializing in offering a wide array of products including furniture, bedding, curtains, blinds, rugs, and home décor. Established in 1979, the company has grown to operate a substantial number of stores across the United Kingdom, alongside a robust online presence. Dunelm is known for providing high-quality homeware at competitive prices, catering to a diverse customer base looking for stylish and functional home solutions.
How the Company Makes MoneyDunelm Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of home furnishings and related products both in-store and online. Its revenue model is centered around retail sales, driven by a broad product range and competitive pricing. Key revenue streams include the sale of textiles, furniture, and seasonal home accessories. The company enhances its earnings by leveraging a multi-channel strategy, which integrates physical stores with an e-commerce platform, allowing it to reach a wider customer base. Dunelm also benefits from supply chain efficiencies and sourcing strategies that help maintain its competitive pricing. Strategic partnerships with suppliers and exclusive product lines further bolster its market position and contribute to its revenue.

Dunelm Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Sep 09, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presents a positive outlook with strong sales growth, digital expansion, and increased dividends, despite challenges in cost management and market uncertainty.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Sales Growth
Sales increased by 3.8% to GBP 1.8 million, outperforming the market. The company also gained 20 basis points of market share, reaching 7.9%.
Digital Sales Increase
Digital sales grew by 3 percentage points, now making up 40% of total sales, with Click & Collect sales up by around 30%.
Profit and Cash Flow
Profit before tax grew by 2.7% to GBP 211 million, with operating cash flow up 10% year-on-year, resulting in free cash flows of GBP 127 million.
Dividend Increase
An increased total ordinary dividend for the year of 44.5p per share, up 2.3% year-on-year, and a special dividend of 35p per share.
Expansion and Acquisitions
Opened first store in London and acquired a business in Ireland, expanding sales outside the U.K. for the first time.
Market Share Milestone
Continued progress towards a medium-term market share milestone of 10%.
Negative Updates
Challenging Cost Environment
Operating cost base grew due to GBP 20 million in inflation, mainly from labor cost increases, and a need for ongoing efficiency improvements.
Scope 3 Carbon Reduction Challenges
Despite progress in reducing Scope 1 carbon emissions, reducing Scope 3 emissions remains challenging.
Consumer Market Uncertainty
No clear signs of sustained consumer recovery, with market conditions remaining challenging.
Company Guidance
The call provided comprehensive guidance for Dunelm's financial outlook, highlighting several key metrics. Sales for the fiscal year 2025 grew by 3.8% to GBP 1.8 million, with a strong gross margin of 52.4%, up 60 basis points year-on-year. Profit before tax increased by 2.7% to GBP 211 million, and earnings per share grew by 3.2% to 76.8p. Operating cash flow rose by 10%, leading to free cash flows of GBP 127 million after an increased level of capital expenditure. The company maintained a net debt of GBP 102 million, with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.3x. The board declared a total ordinary dividend of 44.5p per share, up 2.3%, alongside a special dividend of 35p per share, bringing total shareholder distribution to 79.5p per share. Looking ahead, Dunelm plans to invest around GBP 50 million in capital expenditures, including 5 to 10 new superstores and multiple refits, while maintaining a broadly stable PBT margin amid continued inflationary pressures.

Dunelm Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Dunelm Group has strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, with a high gross profit margin of 51.8%. However, high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.37 poses risks, despite a strong ROE of 109.6%. Cash flow generation is solid, though free cash flow growth is under pressure.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Dunelm Group has shown impressive revenue growth, with a steady increase from 2020 to 2024. The gross profit margin stands at 51.8% for the latest period, indicating strong profitability in its operations. Net profit margin has slightly decreased to 8.9% in 2024 from 9.3% in the previous year, showing some pressure on net income growth. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins remain robust at 12.5% and 17.3% respectively, showcasing operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's balance sheet displays a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.37 in 2024, indicating significant leverage. This level of debt may pose a risk in economic downturns. The equity ratio is relatively low at 20.2%, suggesting a reliance on debt financing. Return on Equity (ROE) has decreased to 109.6%, reflecting high leverage but also strong utilization of equity to generate returns.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Dunelm Group has maintained a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.54, demonstrating strong cash generation relative to net income. However, free cash flow growth has been negative in the latest period compared to the prior year, indicating potential challenges in generating free cash flow.
BreakdownTTMDec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020Dec 2019
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.73B1.71B1.64B1.58B1.34B1.06B
Gross Profit895.70M883.30M741.80M730.30M611.40M454.10M
EBITDA240.50M295.90M278.20M297.10M241.60M194.70M
Net Income152.10M151.20M151.90M171.20M128.90M87.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets754.30M682.00M696.80M737.90M766.70M716.00M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments57.10M23.40M46.30M30.20M128.60M90.00M
Total Debt244.40M326.60M334.10M330.90M293.30M359.00M
Total Liabilities570.60M544.10M559.30M559.60M485.50M542.60M
Stockholders Equity183.70M137.90M137.50M178.30M281.20M173.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow304.50M199.90M217.70M225.70M167.80M217.90M
Operating Cash Flow329.20M232.30M239.50M249.70M183.50M242.80M
Investing Cash Flow-57.60M-38.30M-21.80M-41.70M-15.70M-24.90M
Financing Cash Flow-270.70M-217.30M-202.20M-307.50M-126.80M-147.20M

Dunelm Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price1088.00
Price Trends
50DMA
1168.88
Negative
100DMA
1168.95
Negative
200DMA
1064.52
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-29.67
Negative
RSI
41.56
Neutral
STOCH
64.02
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:DNLM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1088 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1112.85, below the 50-day MA of 1168.88, and above the 200-day MA of 1064.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -29.67 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:DNLM.

Dunelm Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
£2.19B14.09121.78%3.79%3.78%3.44%
69
Neutral
£1.47B13.834.81%1.09%2.71%-34.19%
68
Neutral
£3.11B10.8614.90%-11.05%-24.53%
67
Neutral
£911.51M10.688.88%6.40%0.37%14.78%
55
Neutral
£847.63M131.8816.11%4.10%4.46%-89.55%
52
Neutral
£570.69M-3.70-106.64%-20.36%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:DNLM
Dunelm Group
1,088.00
20.73
1.94%
GB:PETS
Pets at Home
203.20
-87.05
-29.99%
GB:FRAS
Frasers Group
719.50
-114.00
-13.68%
GB:SMWH
WH Smith
680.50
-734.90
-51.92%
GB:CURY
Currys plc
138.20
49.95
56.60%
GB:THG
THG
37.00
-18.00
-32.73%

Dunelm Group Corporate Events

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Group Announces Share Capital and Voting Rights Update
Neutral
Jul 31, 2025

Dunelm Group plc has announced that its issued ordinary share capital consists of 203,426,835 shares, with 2,121,271 held in treasury, leaving 201,305,564 shares with voting rights. This information is crucial for shareholders as it affects their calculations regarding their interest in the company’s share capital, in accordance with the Disclosure and Transparency Rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:DNLM) stock is a Buy with a £13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dunelm Group stock, see the GB:DNLM Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesM&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Dunelm Group Reports Strong Q4 Performance and Strategic Progress
Positive
Jul 17, 2025

Dunelm Group plc reported a strong performance in Q4 2025, with total sales increasing by 4.0% to £415 million, and full-year sales reaching £1.771 billion, up 3.8% year-on-year. Digital sales accounted for 40% of total sales, reflecting the company’s strategic focus on enhancing digital experiences. The company maintained a stable profit before tax margin, despite inflationary pressures, and continued to invest in its business with the opening of new superstores and the acquisition of the Designers Guild brand. The appointment of Clo Moriarty as CEO from October 2025 marks a strategic leadership change, as Dunelm aims to further its market share and strengthen its position as the ‘Home of Homes’.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:DNLM) stock is a Buy with a £13.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dunelm Group stock, see the GB:DNLM Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Dunelm Director Joins BlackRock World Mining Trust
Positive
Jul 14, 2025

Dunelm Group plc announced that Marion Sears, a non-executive director of the company, has been appointed as a non-executive director and a member of the Audit and Management Engagement Committees of BlackRock World Mining Trust plc, effective from 27 August 2025. This appointment highlights the recognition of Sears’ expertise and may enhance Dunelm’s industry connections, potentially benefiting its strategic positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:DNLM) stock is a Buy with a £13.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dunelm Group stock, see the GB:DNLM Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Dunelm Group Appoints Clodagh Moriarty as New CEO
Neutral
Jul 7, 2025

Dunelm Group plc has announced the appointment of Clodagh Moriarty as the new Chief Executive Officer, effective from October 1, 2025, succeeding Nick Wilkinson who is retiring. Moriarty, a seasoned retail leader from J Sainsbury plc, is expected to bring her expertise in retail, digital, and strategic operations to drive Dunelm’s next phase of growth as ‘The Home of Homes’.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:DNLM) stock is a Buy with a £13.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dunelm Group stock, see the GB:DNLM Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Group Announces Total Voting Rights Update
Neutral
Jul 1, 2025

Dunelm Group plc has announced its total voting rights as of July 1, 2025. The company’s issued ordinary share capital consists of 203,426,835 ordinary shares, with 2,134,238 shares held in treasury, resulting in 201,292,597 shares with voting rights. This information is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification requirements under the Disclosure and Transparency Rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:DNLM) stock is a Buy with a £13.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dunelm Group stock, see the GB:DNLM Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Group Announces Total Voting Rights Update
Neutral
Jul 1, 2025

Dunelm Group plc has announced its current total voting rights in accordance with the Disclosure and Transparency Rules. As of the announcement date, the company has 201,292,597 ordinary shares with voting rights, which shareholders can use as a denominator for calculating their interests in the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:DNLM) stock is a Buy with a £13.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dunelm Group stock, see the GB:DNLM Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Dunelm CFO Exercises Share Options and Sells Shares
Neutral
Jun 17, 2025

Dunelm Group plc announced that its Chief Financial Officer, Karen Witts, exercised 51,496 nil cost options over ordinary shares, granted under the company’s Long Term Incentive Plan. To cover tax and national insurance liabilities, she sold 24,277 shares at £11.78 each. This transaction reflects the company’s ongoing management of executive compensation and incentives, potentially impacting shareholder perceptions and market confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:DNLM) stock is a Buy with a £13.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dunelm Group stock, see the GB:DNLM Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Dunelm Group Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights
Neutral
May 30, 2025

Dunelm Group plc has announced that its total issued ordinary share capital consists of 203,426,835 shares, with 2,209,399 held in treasury, resulting in 201,217,436 shares with voting rights. This information is crucial for shareholders to determine their shareholding interests under the Disclosure and Transparency Rules, impacting how they manage their investments in the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:DNLM) stock is a Buy with a £13.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dunelm Group stock, see the GB:DNLM Stock Forecast page.

Other
Dunelm Group Director Increases Shareholding
Positive
May 8, 2025

Dunelm Group plc announced a transaction involving the purchase of its ordinary shares by Ajay Kavan, a Non-Executive Director. The transaction, which took place on May 7, 2025, involved the purchase of 2,621 shares at a price of 1141.79 pence per share, increasing Kavan’s beneficial holding to 7,542 shares. This transaction highlights the ongoing engagement and investment of the company’s management, potentially signaling confidence in Dunelm’s market position and future performance.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 17, 2025