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Admiral
(LSE:ADM)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
4,274.00 p
▲(4.96% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/06/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals: strong revenue growth, a major step-change reduction in leverage, and a significant rebound in 2025 free cash flow. Technicals are mixed (longer-term uptrend but near-term softness), while valuation is supportive with a moderate P/E and a ~4.2% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Sustained revenue expansion indicates continuing scale and demand across Admiral’s insurance operations. Growth over several years can strengthen distribution economics, support investment in the franchise, and provide a durable base for future earnings even if individual product lines fluctuate.
Negative Factors
Margin Compression
Although absolute profit remains solid, materially lower margins than earlier peak years indicate that revenue growth has not translated into the same level of profitability. Persistent margin pressure could reduce earnings resilience and limit the cash available for reinvestment or distributions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth
Sustained revenue expansion indicates continuing scale and demand across Admiral’s insurance operations. Growth over several years can strengthen distribution economics, support investment in the franchise, and provide a durable base for future earnings even if individual product lines fluctuate.
Read all positive factors
Admiral (ADM) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£11.69B
Dividend Yield4.21%
Average Volume (3M)716.54K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.0
Beta (1Y)0.50
Revenue Growth0.12%
EPS Growth-15.35%
CountryUK
Employees14,805
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.24
Shares Outstanding306,304,700
10 Day Avg. Volume934,032
30 Day Avg. Volume716,545
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.97
Price to Book (P/B)6.63
Price to Sales (P/S)1.72
P/FCF Ratio14.67
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£4,080.90Price Target Upside0.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)2.37
Revenue Forecast (FY)£5.07B
Admiral Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Admiral Group plc, a financial services company, provides insurance and personal lending products in the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Spain. It operates through four segments: UK Insurance, European Insurance, Admiral Money, and Other. The c...
How the Company Makes Money
Admiral makes money mainly from (1) insurance underwriting and (2) insurance distribution/commission-based income, with additional contributions from investment and ancillary income.
1) Underwriting profit (insurance): Admiral sells insurance pol...
Admiral Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 11, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a predominantly positive tone: Admiral delivered record profits, strong shareholder returns, robust capital ratios and meaningful strategic progress (AI, diversification, Europe recovery, Admiral Money growth). These positives are tempered by short-term market and pricing pressures in U.K. Motor, higher loss ratios versus the exceptionally strong 2024 comparators, and some one-off/restructuring impacts in parts of Europe. Management expects flat group profit in 2026 as the less-profitable 2025 underwriting year feeds through but emphasises continued strategic investment, internal-model progress and optionality from buybacks and M&A to drive medium-term value.Positive Updates
Record Group Profit
Group profit hit a record GBP 958m in 2025, up 16% year-on-year (or +28% if excluding the Ogden impact), reflecting disciplined execution and group-wide contribution.
Negative Updates
Motor Pricing Pressure and Turnover Decline
Average premiums declined ~10% in 2025 (market-wide), and U.K. Motor turnover fell ~7% as the business reduced prices in H1 2025 to manage the cycle; new business market share softened in H2 2025.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Group Profit
Group profit hit a record GBP 958m in 2025, up 16% year-on-year (or +28% if excluding the Ogden impact), reflecting disciplined execution and group-wide contribution.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that 2026 should see group profit broadly flat versus 2025’s record GBP 958m (up 16% y/y), with turnover modestly higher and faster growth coming from U.K. Personal Lines, Admiral Money and Europe; U.K. Motor pricing has started to rise (low single‑digit increases) to offset mid‑single‑digit claims inflation, and reserve strength will move from near‑maximum toward the middle of the range during 2026. Capital guidance: year‑end solvency was 193%, the post‑internal‑model target range is 150–170% (upper end), the proposed final dividend is 90p (total 205p; ~£620m; +7% y/y) with an ordinary payout of 65% of earnings, the 90% total‑return guidance should broadly hold and the Board will use buybacks (interim and final 2026 subject to approval) alongside share purchases for schemes (trust bought ~1m shares for ~£30m in Q4 and expects ~3m purchases in 2026); the Flock acquisition would reduce solvency by a little under 10pp if completed. Technology and efficiency guidance includes scaling >150 gen‑AI initiatives supporting >4,000 colleagues, leveraging predictive AI (c.£100m incremental loss‑ratio value to date) and targeting >£100m p.a. of efficiency benefits by 2028.Admiral Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.57B | 5.57B | 5.27B | 3.55B | 1.52B | 1.56B |
| Gross Profit | 3.63B | 5.57B | 4.85B | 3.51B | 1.52B | 1.56B |
| EBITDA | 1.05B | 1.12B | 924.70M | 501.50M | 403.10M | 776.20M |
| Net Income | 670.60M | 742.60M | 663.30M | 338.00M | 286.50M | 593.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.34B | 9.02B | 7.94B | 7.10B | 6.22B | 6.18B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 314.90M | 301.10M | 3.60B | 3.14B | 297.00M | 372.70M |
| Total Debt | 2.08B | 1.89B | 1.39B | 1.21B | 1.03B | 776.20M |
| Total Liabilities | 7.84B | 7.58B | 6.57B | 6.10B | 5.27B | 4.78B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.50B | 1.44B | 1.37B | 991.80M | 954.20M | 1.41B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 365.60M | 652.40M | 224.80M | 203.10M | 210.90M | 468.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 455.80M | 726.70M | 369.00M | 279.00M | 309.50M | 537.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -203.90M | -440.50M | -144.20M | -75.90M | 29.30M | 74.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -229.60M | -278.10M | -257.90M | -171.80M | -399.70M | -544.60M |
Admiral Technical Analysis
Neutral
4072.00
Price Trends
3691.35
Positive
3479.08
Positive
3193.34
Positive
Market Momentum
59.86
Positive
50.48
Neutral
7.13
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:ADM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 4072 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3858.38, above the 50-day MA of 3691.35, and above the 200-day MA of 3193.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 59.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.13 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GB:ADM.
Admiral Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | £7.75B | 15.57 | 13.86% | 1.92% | -3.16% | -29.27% | |
78 Outperform | £126.09M | 16.96 | 20.34% | 5.82% | 10.42% | 36.57% | |
77 Outperform | £415.27M | 11.35 | 14.67% | 8.26% | -10.22% | -5.62% | |
75 Outperform | £1.54B | 6.65 | 21.73% | 17.59% | -1.60% | 36.00% | |
74 Outperform | £11.69B | 17.04 | 45.59% | 4.21% | 0.12% | -15.35% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | £5.95B | 13.02 | 16.17% | 2.09% | 4.50% | 7.58% |
* Financial Sector Average
GB:ADM
Admiral
3,816.00
654.67
20.71%
GB:BEZ
Beazley
1,301.50
522.37
67.05%
GB:LRE
Lancashire Holdings
630.00
137.71
27.97%
GB:PGH
Personal Group Holdings
400.00
60.86
17.94%
GB:HSX
Hiscox
1,878.00
614.36
48.62%
GB:SBRE
Sabre Insurance Group plc
172.00
44.64
35.05%
Admiral Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Admiral grants share awards to senior executives under incentive plan
Neutral
Aug 20, 2026
Admiral Group has granted a small share award to several senior executives under its Approved Share Incentive Plan. Chief executive Milena Mondini de Focatiis, chief financial officer Rachel Lewis and other top managers each received 47 ordinary s...
Other
Admiral Chair Mike Rogers Increases Stake with Share Purchase
Positive
Aug 10, 2026
Admiral Group plc reported that its chair and person discharging managerial responsibilities, Mike Rogers, acquired 1,613 ordinary shares in the company on 7 August 2026 on the London Stock Exchange. The shares were purchased at a price of £3...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Admiral balances profit decline with growth and capital returns in H1 2026
Neutral
Aug 6, 2026
Admiral Group reported a solid first half of 2026 with group profit before tax from continuing operations of £429.2m, down 18% from a record H1 2025, on flat turnover of £3.11bn and a return on equity of 45%. Customer numbers and insured...
Executive/Board Changes
Admiral Chair Mike Rogers Steps Down from Experian Board
Neutral
Jul 23, 2026
Admiral Group plc has announced that its chair, Mike Rogers, has stepped down from his separate role as chair and director of Experian plc, effective 22 July 2026. The change clarifies Rogers’ external board commitments and may be relevant f...
Dividends
Admiral Director and Spouse Boost Holdings via Dividend Reinvestment Plan
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
Admiral Group plc has reported share acquisitions by non-executive director Michael Brierley and his wife Rachel under an existing dividend reinvestment trading plan. On 11 June 2026, Brierley acquired 22 ordinary shares and his wife purchased 100...
Other
Admiral CFO Designate Increases Stake via Dividend Reinvestment
Positive
Jun 9, 2026
Admiral Group reported that its CFO Designate, Rachel Lewis, acquired ordinary shares in the company through a dividend reinvestment plan under the Admiral Group Approved Share Incentive Plan. The transaction, executed on 5 June 2026 on the London...
Dividends
Admiral Director Increases Stake Through Dividend Reinvestment Plan
Positive
Jun 9, 2026
Admiral Group plc has disclosed that non-executive director William Roberts acquired additional ordinary shares in the company through a dividend reinvestment trading plan. The transaction, conducted as a single trade on 8 June 2026 on the New Yor...
DividendsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Admiral CFO Increases Stake via Dividend Reinvestment Plan
Positive
Jun 9, 2026
Admiral Group plc reported that its Chief Financial Officer, Geraint Jones, acquired ordinary shares through the company’s dividend reinvestment plan under the Admiral Group Approved Share Incentive Plan. The transaction, involving ordinary ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.