Admiral (ADM) AI Stock Analysis

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Admiral

(LSE:ADM)

Select Model

Outperform 78 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:78Outperform

Price Target:

3,824.00p

▲(19.57% Upside)

Admiral's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are the primary drivers of its overall score. The company's robust profitability, strategic advancements, and attractive dividend yield enhance its investment appeal. However, technical indicators suggest short-term bearish momentum, which slightly tempers the overall score.

Admiral (ADM) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Market Cap

£9.78B

Dividend Yield6.03%

Average Volume (3M)644.62K

Price to Earnings (P/E)11.8

Beta (1Y)0.45

Revenue Growth22.62%

EPS Growth106.27%

CountryUK

Employees15,432

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength70

IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.32

Shares Outstanding306,304,700

10 Day Avg. Volume738,235

30 Day Avg. Volume644,621

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.13

Price to Book (P/B)5.91

Price to Sales (P/S)1.54

P/FCF Ratio36.03

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

£3,563.78

Price Target Upside11.44% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering9

Admiral Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAdmiral Group plc provides car insurance products in the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, France, India, and the United States. The company operates through UK Insurance, International Insurance, Admiral Loans, and Other segments. It underwrites car, van, household, and travel insurance, as well as offers unsecured personal and car loans, and legal services. It offers its insurance products under the Admiral, Apparent, Balumba, Bell, Diamond, Elephant, Elephant Auto, Gladiator, L'Olivier, Qualitas Auto, and WiYou Seguros brand names, as well as through Compare.com and ConTe.it. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Cardiff, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes MoneyAdmiral generates revenue primarily through its insurance premiums, which are collected from policyholders across its various insurance products. The company utilizes a direct-to-consumer model, allowing it to minimize costs associated with intermediaries. Key revenue streams include motor insurance, home insurance, and travel insurance, with motor insurance being the most significant contributor. Additionally, Admiral earns income from ancillary services such as financial services and comparison tools. The company has also established partnerships with various automotive and financial institutions, enhancing its product offerings and customer reach. Furthermore, Admiral benefits from investment income derived from its reserves, which contributes to overall profitability.

Admiral Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 14, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Mar 05, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call demonstrated a robust financial performance with record profits, significant growth in customer base, and strong performance in multiple segments including U.K. Motor and European operations. Despite some challenges in Italy and potential risks in Household insurance, the company's strategic advancements and technological improvements position it well for future growth.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Profit and Customer Growth

Admiral Group delivered a record profit of GBP 521 million, a 70% increase year-on-year, while adding 1 million customers, marking a 10% increase versus last year.

Strong Performance in U.K. Insurance

U.K. Motor insurance was the key driver, with a significant increase in underwriting results and a 3-point improvement in the combined ratio. U.K. Household and Admiral Money both doubled their profits.

Impressive Growth in Europe

Significant progress in European operations with profitable growth in France, a turnaround in Italy, and promising performance in Spain.

Enhanced Technological Capabilities

Continuous optimization of machine learning models, focus on claims beyond pricing, and promising initial results from GenAI pilots.

High Employee and Customer Satisfaction

Strong Net Promoter Score above 50% and high employee retention with Admiral ranking in the top 25 best places to work worldwide.

Strong Capital Position and Dividend Increase

Reported a robust solvency position and declared a much larger interim dividend of over 60% to 115p a share.

Negative Updates

Challenges in Italy

The Italian business, ConTe, faced challenges but showed signs of recovery with a 13-point improvement in the combined ratio.

Impact of Market Conditions on U.K. Motor

The U.K. Motor market showed a decrease in premiums due to favorable claims trends, which could impact future profitability if not adjusted.

Potential Impact of Subsidence Risk in Household Insurance

Provision for elevated subsidence risk due to particularly dry weather, which could affect future performance in Household insurance.

Company Guidance

During the first half of 2025, Admiral Group reported a record pretax profit of GBP 521 million, marking a 69% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by the U.K. Motor insurance segment, which experienced strong underwriting results. The group's customer base expanded by 1 million to a total of 13% growth year-on-year across the U.K. insurance sector. Admiral's combined ratio improved by 3 points, with the U.K. Household and Admiral Money both doubling their profits. Admiral maintained pricing discipline despite a softening market, reflecting a strong Net Promoter Score above 50%. The company's expense ratios improved across U.K. Motor, U.K. Household, and Europe, and Admiral Money saw a 25% increase in on-balance sheet loans to GBP 1.3 billion. The group announced a significant increase in the interim dividend by over 60% to 115p per share. Additionally, the group continued to enhance its data and technology capabilities, optimizing machine learning models for pricing and claims, while exploring the potential of Generative AI to improve customer experience and operational efficiencies.

Admiral Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Admiral has shown strong financial performance with significant revenue growth and robust profitability metrics. Despite a zero EBIT margin in 2024, the company maintains a healthy EBITDA margin and improved net profit margin. The balance sheet reflects improved leverage and strong return on equity, while cash flow statements show positive cash generation with room to enhance cash flow efficiency.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Admiral has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a noticeable increase from £1.22 billion in 2019 to £4.87 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin remains robust at over 98% for 2024, indicating efficient cost management and strong profitability. However, the EBIT margin for 2024 is 0%, which is concerning, though the EBITDA margin remains healthy at 19.56%. The net profit margin has improved significantly to 13.63% in 2024, showing enhanced profitability.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved over the years, standing at 1.02 in 2024, reflecting a balanced leverage. The equity ratio is at 17.24%, suggesting moderate stability with some room for improvement. Return on equity is strong at 48.41%, indicating effective use of shareholders' equity to generate profits.

Cash Flow

Positive

Admiral's free cash flow growth rate from 2023 to 2024 is 10.69%, reflecting positive cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.56 for 2024, showing reasonable cash flow efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio stands at 0.34, which indicates decent free cash flow relative to net income but suggests potential for improvement.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.12B	5.27B	3.55B	1.52B	1.56B	1.30B
Gross Profit	5.12B	4.81B	3.51B	1.52B	1.56B	1.30B
EBITDA	1.12B	924.70M	501.50M	429.20M	776.20M	837.20M
Net Income	826.90M	663.30M	338.00M	286.50M	593.50M	528.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.63B	7.94B	7.10B	6.22B	6.18B	5.76B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	3.60B	3.14B	297.00M	372.70M	272.50M
Total Debt	1.31B	1.39B	1.21B	1.03B	776.20M	611.40M
Total Liabilities	7.20B	6.57B	6.10B	5.27B	4.78B	4.64B
Stockholders Equity	1.44B	1.37B	991.80M	954.20M	1.41B	1.11B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	288.30M	224.80M	203.10M	210.90M	468.30M	732.60M
Operating Cash Flow	349.70M	369.00M	279.00M	309.50M	537.50M	775.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-726.20M	-144.20M	-75.90M	29.30M	74.70M	-226.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-266.80M	-257.90M	-171.80M	-399.70M	-544.60M	-481.30M

Admiral Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price3198.00

Price Trends

50DMA

3334.96

Negative

100DMA

3266.97

Negative

200DMA

2962.85

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-43.98

Positive

RSI

34.44

Neutral

STOCH

11.77

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:ADM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3198 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3316.95, below the 50-day MA of 3334.96, and above the 200-day MA of 2962.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -43.98 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.77 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:ADM.

Admiral Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LRE	79 Outperform	1.62B	8.87	21.52%	11.46%	8.78%	-38.83%
BEZ	78 Outperform	5.20B	7.19	24.54%	2.86%	6.00%	-24.29%
ADM	78 Outperform	£9.78B	11.82	65.36%	6.03%	22.62%	106.27%
AV	73 Outperform	20.73B	29.99	8.22%	6.04%	-19.71%	-53.86%
HSX	71 Outperform	4.48B	9.72	17.00%	2.05%	1.12%	-18.14%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GB:ADM

Admiral

3,198.00

602.54

23.22%

GB:BEZ

Beazley

873.00

133.19

18.00%

GB:DLG

Direct Line Insurance

304.80

120.79

65.64%

GB:LRE

Lancashire Holdings

663.00

74.02

12.57%

GB:AV

Aviva plc

682.00

230.32

50.99%

HCXLF

Hiscox

18.04

3.12

20.91%

Admiral Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy

Admiral Group Announces Share Vesting for International Managers

Neutral

Aug 27, 2025

Admiral Group plc announced the vesting of 81 ordinary shares under a Share Incentive Plan for international managers, involving Costantino Moretti, Head of International Insurance. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects Admiral’s ongoing commitment to incentivizing its managerial staff, potentially impacting its operational dynamics and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ADM) stock is a Buy with a £4100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Admiral stock, see the GB:ADM Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 24, 2025